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Filmspotting Message Boards => Movie Talk => Movie Games => Topic started by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 01:39:31 AM

Title: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 01:39:31 AM
I thought it might be fun to have a league where we guess the opening box office weekend for films.

Here is how it will work:

1) I will post one film each week (before Friday). It will be blockbusters sometimes and indies sometimes.

2) You guess the total weekend North American opening box office to the hundreds of thousands of dollars (e.g., 22,700,000)

3) You are scored on a plus/minus basis

e.g.;

You guess 22,700,000. The final box office is 24, 500,000.

24,500,000 - 22,700,000= 1,800,000

You weekly score will be 1,800,000

4) The winner at the end has the lowest total (it's like golf).

5) I will put up some prizes just for fun (probably DVDs)

6) You dont have to play every week but to qualify for the prizes you must have played 80% of the weeks (however long we end up running it for)

7) I will update scores in this thread each week

First film opens April 24, 2010

(http://vinayvasan.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/the-losers_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 01:42:07 AM
Leaderboard
PlayerTotal running +/-
Keith1
Clovis3.3
Melvil5.7
Matt7.1
Micheal x7.75
Bill8.85
1SO13.12
NeutralGrey13.6
Steven O. Selsnik14.3
DrKimble18.15
'Noke22.6
lotr-sam71124.6
smirnoff28.6
corndog30
Dave the Viewer32.8

Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 01:45:45 AM
The Losers: 12,800,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 22, 2010, 02:05:02 AM
The Losers: 9,500,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 02:06:18 AM
I was thinking 4 month cycles then a reset and new game?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on April 22, 2010, 02:08:36 AM
The best I know to make a table would be something like this (quote me to see how it is done):

PlayerScore
Clovis0
NeutralGrey0

Also, wouldn't it be easier to score it in millions, to the first decimal?

My guess for the Losers is 18.5 (18,500,000).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 02:14:28 AM


Also, wouldn't it be easier to score it in millions, to the first decimal?



I was thinking that might bunch us too much depending on how many play.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 10:58:02 AM
bump for the new game  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 22, 2010, 11:06:36 AM
What the hey, I'll bite.

$15,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 22, 2010, 11:51:43 AM
Sweet game clov.

I'm saying $21,500,000 for Losers. They've been pumping it pretty hard. It's the only thing coming out this weekend worth seeing (imo).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on April 22, 2010, 05:35:32 PM
The Losers: $16,850,000

BTW I think it opens on the 23rd, not the 24th.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on April 22, 2010, 05:45:32 PM


Also, wouldn't it be easier to score it in millions, to the first decimal?



I was thinking that might bunch us too much depending on how many play.

I meant writing it as XX.X instead of XX,X00,000 just to drop the zeroes, but keep the same degree of precision.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 22, 2010, 05:46:50 PM


Also, wouldn't it be easier to score it in millions, to the first decimal?



I was thinking that might bunch us too much depending on how many play.

I meant writing it as XX.X instead of XX,X00,000 just to drop the zeroes, but keep the same degree of precision.

ah ya makes sense
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 22, 2010, 05:51:42 PM
Well, we are predicting for The Losers so I say we keep the zeroes company for now.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on April 22, 2010, 05:53:47 PM
Haha, fair enough.

Great game idea by the way.  I don't know much about this though, so I'll be spending a lot of time looking over Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on April 22, 2010, 07:13:29 PM
I'll go 25,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 23, 2010, 01:33:20 AM
I'm gonna say...

$14,350,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on April 23, 2010, 01:55:01 AM
I like this game already!
Hm, the comic isn't super-popular and the trailer didn't exactly rock. Kick-ass underperformed and I'm guessing The Losers caters to the same audience. Hm, this one gets the straight-to-DVD-treatment in a lot of European countries. All that adds up to an estimate of $17,380,000 which I would consider a surprisingly good first week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on April 23, 2010, 01:58:38 AM
20,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 23, 2010, 06:25:10 AM
The Losers: 19,800,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 23, 2010, 11:04:03 AM
wow, can't believe how high some of these guesses are ;)

when's the deadline for submitting a guess?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 23, 2010, 11:16:52 AM
$11,250,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 23, 2010, 11:18:58 AM
wow, can't believe how high some of these guesses are ;)

when's the deadline for submitting a guess?


Very soon. I think for future weeks it will be Thursday night.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Steven O. Selsnik on April 23, 2010, 11:28:38 AM
The Losers

7.5. milly
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 23, 2010, 12:48:18 PM
updated list on post 2

I think I will cut it off at 3pm est
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 23, 2010, 02:12:29 PM
10.6

edit - whoops, sorry, work interference.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 25, 2010, 10:55:43 PM
The Losers made 9.6 million.

Here is the current leaderboard. All scores are updated on second post in this thread.

Matt clearly cheated somehow.  ;)

Leaderboard
PlayerTotal running +/-
Matt0.1
Keith1.0
Bill1.65
Steven O. Selsnik2.1
Clovis3.2
1SO4.75
lotr-sam7115.4
Micheal x7.25
DrKimble7.78
NeutralGrey8.9
Dave the Viewer10.2
'Noke10.4
smirnoff11.9
corndog15.4


Next weeks film:

(http://www.iwatchstuff.com/2009/07/23/nightmare-elm-st-poster-1.jpg)

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 25, 2010, 11:06:33 PM
Hurm.

I'll say 6.4 mill 13 million
 
NINJA EDIT
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 25, 2010, 11:36:55 PM
I'm gonna say...

$14,350,000

The Losers made 9.6 million.
   
1SO7.75
I think the math is off.  I have 4.75


As for Freddy, I will guess something equal to what Friday the 13th opened with...

$40,570,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 25, 2010, 11:43:47 PM
I'm gonna say...

$14,350,000

The Losers made 9.6 million.
   
1SO7.75
I think the math is off.  I have 4.75


As for Freddy, I will guess something equal to what Friday the 13th opened with...

$40,570,000

opps typo. fixed.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 26, 2010, 03:22:15 AM
$25 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 26, 2010, 06:00:42 AM
9.6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on April 26, 2010, 07:24:46 AM
Oh boy, I got some ground to make up now. I'll say $17.6 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 26, 2010, 07:28:16 AM
Hmm, I'm gunna wait and see what matt guesses. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 26, 2010, 07:41:00 AM
Wow, these are really crossing the gambit. I don't know much about box office numbers so I could be totally off. Might change mine before Thursday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on April 26, 2010, 09:43:50 AM
I'll go 27.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on April 26, 2010, 11:00:02 AM
I'm going for 20 mil even.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on April 26, 2010, 11:38:15 AM
I'm going for 20 mil even.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 26, 2010, 01:11:36 PM
Hmm, I'm gunna wait and see what matt guesses. ;)
It was beginner's luck.  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 26, 2010, 01:40:34 PM
Alright then...

Nightmare of Elm Street: 15.5 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 26, 2010, 05:05:33 PM
clovis - best to wait for actuals on Monday afternoon.

Quote
1  2  How to Train Your Dragon  P/DW  $15,350,213  -21.8%  3,665  -160  $4,188  $178,345,927  $165  5
2  N  The Back-Up Plan  CBS  $12,201,710  -  3,280  -  $3,720  $12,201,710  $35  1
3  3  Date Night  Fox  $10,461,223  -37.4%  3,294  -86  $3,176  $63,332,819  $55  3
4  N  The Losers   WB  $9,406,348  -  2,936  -  $3,204  $9,406,348  $25  1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 26, 2010, 05:08:47 PM
clovis - best to wait for actuals on Monday afternoon.

Quote
1  2  How to Train Your Dragon  P/DW  $15,350,213  -21.8%  3,665  -160  $4,188  $178,345,927  $165  5
2  N  The Back-Up Plan  CBS  $12,201,710  -  3,280  -  $3,720  $12,201,710  $35  1
3  3  Date Night  Fox  $10,461,223  -37.4%  3,294  -86  $3,176  $63,332,819  $55  3
4  N  The Losers   WB  $9,406,348  -  2,936  -  $3,204  $9,406,348  $25  1


Dammit, ya good point!

I am too lazy to go back and change everyone by 0.2 so I will just modify next weeks appropriately.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 27, 2010, 09:06:55 PM
Changed my vote to 13 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on April 28, 2010, 09:11:17 AM
Oh dear, Freddy is going up against Human Centipede! Alright, the Friday 13th remake made a lot. Why wouldn't the Freddy remake do really well too PLUS it's frickin' Rorschach with a blade glove.

Maybe it's not a good time for horror but I'm willing to risk dropping even lower on the scoreboard. I call 1SO and I raise him 2 million.

My guess: $42,570,000

Ps. I'm way too optimistic for this game. I'm fully aware of that.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on April 28, 2010, 09:36:13 AM
Nightmare on Elm Street (2010):

32,700,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on April 28, 2010, 11:34:30 AM
Interesting that last weekend was the lowest boxoffice weekend in years.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 28, 2010, 02:32:50 PM
Nightmare on Elm Street (2010): 25.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on April 28, 2010, 03:25:32 PM
I call 1SO and I raise him 2 million.

String bet! String bet! Illegal!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on April 28, 2010, 03:39:25 PM
Don't know if I'm too late for the scoreboard since I missed the first round, but I'm gonna guess anyways.

Nightmare on Elm Street: 26.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 28, 2010, 03:40:24 PM
Don't know if I'm too late for the scoreboard since I missed the first round, but I'm gonna guess anyways.

Nightmare on Elm Street: 26.5

it's fine you are in
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on April 29, 2010, 04:11:11 AM
I call 1SO and I raise him 2 million.
String bet! String bet! Illegal!
Illegal shellegal! Let's call it a moral gray area.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on April 29, 2010, 01:38:55 PM
Im going to guess 32.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 01, 2010, 01:14:11 AM
Reviews look brutal, I may have been too optimistic in my guess. :-X
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 01, 2010, 08:03:54 AM
But do horror fans read those reviews? Probably not.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 01, 2010, 02:08:25 PM
$15.8 million for Friday
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 01:26:31 PM
Somehow clovis cheated.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 03, 2010, 01:34:08 PM
Somehow clovis cheated.

I am just that good!

Box office total 32.2. I will update today sometime.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 03, 2010, 02:32:48 PM
Leaderboard
PlayerTotal running +/-
Keith1
Clovis3.3
Melvil5.7
Matt7.1
Micheal x7.75
Bill8.85
1SO13.12
NeutralGrey13.6
Steven O. Selsnik14.3
DrKimble18.15
'Noke22.6
lotr-sam71124.6
smirnoff28.6
corndog30
Dave the Viewer32.8

Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.

This week we obviously have to do...

(http://monsterscifishow.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/poster_ironman-2.jpg)

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 03, 2010, 02:56:47 PM
200.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 02:58:25 PM
134 million

Watch out Dave, I'm gunning for you spot this week!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 03, 2010, 03:07:17 PM
$124 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 03, 2010, 03:08:57 PM
112 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 03, 2010, 03:16:46 PM
150.2 million

Sam, I laugh at your feeble attempt.


Although I have actually done some research this time, so I might do better.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 03, 2010, 03:21:57 PM
105
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 03:27:05 PM
Sam, I laugh at your feeble attempt.
It's on! (http://forum.thescubasite.com/fighting/fighting0001.gif)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 03, 2010, 03:55:50 PM
Sam, I laugh at your feeble attempt.
It's on! (http://forum.thescubasite.com/fighting/fighting0001.gif)

You bet (http://forum.thescubasite.com/fighting/fighting0026.gif)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 04:01:24 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 03, 2010, 04:05:19 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Don't worry, just give me time and I'll sabotage myself out of the running. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 03, 2010, 04:07:18 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Not really sure. Could do that. Other ideas?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 03, 2010, 04:09:09 PM
Put their prediction at $0 and penalize them from there.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on May 03, 2010, 04:09:43 PM
Glad I'm doing so well. I'll say $99.9Mil this week
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 04:10:01 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Not really sure. Could do that. Other ideas?
If you miss a week you play Double Jeopardy the next week! However much you're off by gets doubled!  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 03, 2010, 04:12:02 PM
$134 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 03, 2010, 04:13:15 PM
Box office total 32.2. I will update today sometime.

Actuals $32,902,299
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 03, 2010, 04:17:34 PM
I haven't looked at the actual intake for The Losers yet. I'd have guessed $23.8. Now I've looked.

I like the average idea. ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 03, 2010, 04:21:45 PM
Iron Man 2:
$142.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 03, 2010, 04:22:28 PM
Box office total 32.2. I will update today sometime.

Actuals $32,902,299

you must be getting your numbers from a different source. I am using box officemojo.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 03, 2010, 04:26:22 PM
Box office total 32.2. I will update today sometime.

Actuals $32,902,299

you must be getting your numbers from a different source. I am using box officemojo.
That's projected actually.  look here (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=nightmareonelmstreet10.htm)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 03, 2010, 04:29:16 PM
Box office total 32.2. I will update today sometime.

Actuals $32,902,299

you must be getting your numbers from a different source. I am using box officemojo.
That's projected actually.  look here (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=nightmareonelmstreet10.htm)

Dammit, this is annoying! Ok I'll modify next weeks accordingly and try to use the real numbers next week.  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 06, 2010, 04:19:18 PM
Iron Man 2: 148 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 06, 2010, 04:32:02 PM
171.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 06, 2010, 04:35:05 PM
Iron Man 2: 160.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 07, 2010, 02:20:03 AM
$158,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: enzobot24 on May 07, 2010, 02:22:01 AM
$115 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on May 07, 2010, 10:47:36 AM
170 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 07, 2010, 11:47:19 AM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Not really sure. Could do that. Other ideas?

you said there's an 80% threshold for qualifying right?  say you do this for 10 weeks and then cast off the worst 2 guesses for those with 100% participation and those that missed would have fewer opportunities for thei mistakes to be cancelled out?

also 'Noke... what?!?

(Iron Man made an estimated 7.5 from midnight shows)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 07, 2010, 11:50:05 AM
also 'Noke... what?!?

I was about 60 Million off. I'm not taking this game too seriously.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 07, 2010, 01:58:37 PM
146.55



edit - rest of the top 5:

2)  A Nightmare On Elm Street     7.24

3)  How To Train Your Dragon      5.84

4)  Date Night    4.77

5)  The Back-Up Plan      4.14
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 07, 2010, 04:02:40 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Not really sure. Could do that. Other ideas?

you said there's an 80% threshold for qualifying right?  say you do this for 10 weeks and then cast off the worst 2 guesses for those with 100% participation and those that missed would have fewer opportunities for thei mistakes to be cancelled out?


This seems like the fairest way to go about it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 07, 2010, 04:11:46 PM
Note: Melvil and Keith have missed one week.
So how are we going to compensate for misses? Give them the average of what everyone else made on a particular week?

Not really sure. Could do that. Other ideas?

you said there's an 80% threshold for qualifying right?  say you do this for 10 weeks and then cast off the worst 2 guesses for those with 100% participation and those that missed would have fewer opportunities for thei mistakes to be cancelled out?


This seems like the fairest way to go about it.

Yep this sounds like the best way. We will do this.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 07, 2010, 04:12:14 PM
146.55



edit - rest of the top 5:

2)  A Nightmare On Elm Street     7.24

3)  How To Train Your Dragon      5.84

4)  Date Night    4.77

5)  The Back-Up Plan      4.14

There is no extra credit, brown noser!  ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 10, 2010, 09:50:51 AM
146.55



edit - rest of the top 5:

2)  A Nightmare On Elm Street     7.24

3)  How To Train Your Dragon      5.84

4)  Date Night    4.77

5)  The Back-Up Plan      4.14

There is no extra credit, brown noser!  ;)

please - i'm doin 'em for another game anyway, yr not that that I need to cozy up to

wait... are you?  if so, HI!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on May 10, 2010, 10:02:40 AM
I'll just assume we are doing Robin Hood next week and reuse my answer from this past week: $99.9Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 10, 2010, 10:44:59 AM
I might not get a chance to update the totals this week but here is the film for this Friday...


(http://vhianzhee.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/robin_hood_2010_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 10, 2010, 11:40:47 AM
Based on the weekend estimate, until Clovis can work the final numbers:

Iron Man 2 - $133.6 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
Bill     134     .4
lotr-sam     134     .4
Melvil     142.2     8.6
1SO     124     9.6
Keith     146.55     12.95
michael x     148     14.4
Dave the Viewer     150.2     16.6
enzobot24     115     18.6
smirnoff     112     21.6
Dr Kimble     158     24.4
matt the movie watcher     160.8     27.2
NeutralGrey     105     28.6
Corndog     99.9     33.7
stevekimes     170     36.4
Clovis8     171.5     37.9
'Noke     200.2     66.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 10, 2010, 11:43:16 AM
Nice job copying off me Bill.  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 10, 2010, 11:52:41 AM
I predict that Mother's Day will cause a larger than usual drop in the actuals, and place me in 3rd.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 10, 2010, 12:19:24 PM
I have squandered my early lead.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on May 10, 2010, 01:22:54 PM
For Robin Hood:

87 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 10, 2010, 01:42:41 PM
90 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 10, 2010, 01:47:48 PM
That's some foolish guesses.

Kingdom of Heaven 19.6
Gladiator 34.8

Robin Hood 37.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 10, 2010, 02:14:13 PM
Robin Hood

24.5 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on May 10, 2010, 02:37:34 PM
That's some foolish guesses.

Kingdom of Heaven 19.6
Gladiator 34.8

Robin Hood 37.2

It's all about foolishness.  Noke and I, if we ever qualify, it will simply be by luck.  May the fools prosper!  And fail the qualifications test. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 10, 2010, 02:38:24 PM
Robin Hood: 45.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 10, 2010, 02:38:39 PM
I for one appreciate your optimism!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 10, 2010, 03:30:43 PM
That's some foolish guesses.

Kingdom of Heaven 19.6
Gladiator 34.8

Robin Hood 37.2

Keep in mind that Robin Hood is the only one of the three to be PG-13, IIRC.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 10, 2010, 03:32:13 PM
I predict that Mother's Day will cause a larger than usual drop in the actuals, and place me in 3rd.

And I was right...

ACTUALS:
$128,122,480
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on May 10, 2010, 03:41:55 PM
I stink at this game.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 10, 2010, 03:50:43 PM
I predict that Mother's Day will cause a larger than usual drop in the actuals, and place me in 3rd.

And I was right...

ACTUALS:
$128,122,480

Nooooo!!!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 10, 2010, 04:20:50 PM
Robin Hood: 102 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 10, 2010, 04:24:27 PM
Robin Hood: 140 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 10, 2010, 05:07:11 PM
well if yr not gonna take it seriously :P ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 10, 2010, 05:10:24 PM
146.55



edit - rest of the top 5:

2)  A Nightmare On Elm Street     7.24

3)  How To Train Your Dragon      5.84

4)  Date Night    4.77

5)  The Back-Up Plan      4.14

There is no extra credit, brown noser!  ;)

please - i'm doin 'em for another game anyway, yr not that that I need to cozy up to

wait... are you?  if so, HI!

1 Iron Man 2 Par. $128,122,480
2 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) WB (NL) $9,119,389 -72.3%
3 How to Train Your Dragon P/DW $6,680,374 -37.1%
4 Date Night Fox $5,448,257 -28.1%
5 The Back-Up Plan CBS $5,033,471 -30.6%


wow, nothing fell as hard I thought (quote me).  Women must've flocked to Date Night & The Back-Up Plan in droves to seek shelter from the nerd party (that wasn't as big as everyone expected in the first place)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 10, 2010, 05:30:46 PM
well if yr not gonna take it seriously :P ;)

Robin Hood is going to rip shit up, dude! :)  You wait.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 10, 2010, 05:38:28 PM
That all depends, is there a Bryan Adams song?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 10, 2010, 07:09:00 PM
Sam, if you are going to try and beat me at the bottom, I recommend doing worse than .4  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 10, 2010, 07:59:34 PM
Dammit, that was totally a mistake.

I'm guessing 1000! No way you can top that sucka!

(but not for real, I'll have a legit guess later in the week.)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: enzobot24 on May 11, 2010, 12:49:47 AM
I'd say Robin Hood will make $80 million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 11, 2010, 06:10:59 AM
That all depends, is there a Bryan Adams song?

They shouhld use the same one. It's not like it's aged or anything...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 11, 2010, 09:04:35 AM
Moving up the ranks! There's still a long way to the top though. I shall pass Smirnoff next. *muahahaha*

Robin Hood: $42,000,000

Robin Hood is going to rip shit up, dude! :)  You wait.
It might have legs but it's not going to disrupt feces this weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 11, 2010, 09:17:28 AM
I'll see it twice if I have to! :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 11, 2010, 10:42:41 AM
Robin Hood: 39.71 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 11, 2010, 12:03:24 PM
That all depends, is there a Bryan Adams song?
They shouhld use the same one. It's not like it's aged or anything...
:)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 13, 2010, 08:39:49 PM
I'm gonna go with 42.1 for Robin Hood.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 13, 2010, 08:42:00 PM
36.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 13, 2010, 08:46:51 PM
Hum. 67.4 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 13, 2010, 08:55:08 PM
Robin Hood: 32.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 14, 2010, 03:07:31 PM
28.49
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 14, 2010, 04:33:49 PM
I'm gunna catch up this week. You guys are taking crazy pills.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 14, 2010, 09:36:48 PM
I'm gunna catch up this week. You guys are taking crazy pills.

I dunno man, Universal themselves are only predicting a $35 Million (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2773&p=.htm) opening weekend domestically.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 15, 2010, 12:01:01 AM
Hmm. After watching it maybe that's not so crazy. :(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: enzobot24 on May 15, 2010, 05:38:43 AM
I doubt a studio film costing $230+ million could ever make only ~$35 million opening weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 15, 2010, 11:02:09 AM
Friday Estimates(via Finkke)

1. IRON MAN 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 2 [4,390 Runs]
Friday $15.2M (-70%), Estimated Weekend $53M, Estimated Cume $212M

2. ROBIN HOOD (Universal) NEW [3,503 Runs]
Friday $14.9M, Estimated Weekend $40M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 15, 2010, 11:58:49 AM
I doubt a studio film costing $230+ million could ever make only ~$35 million opening weekend.

Looks like it probably will.

The article goes on to say they expect its money to be made internationally.  The US isn't the only market in the world, you know.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 15, 2010, 01:29:12 PM
I doubt a studio film costing $230+ million could ever make only ~$35 million opening weekend.

Looks like it probably will.

The article goes on to say they expect its money to be made internationally.  The US isn't the only market in the world, you know.

That's the thing. This is the kind of movie that cleans up internationally.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 16, 2010, 11:29:47 PM
So weekend estimates are at $37,114,000...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 17, 2010, 12:03:58 PM
Robin Hood 37.2

I'm nailing it.

Are you ever going to update the boards with the actuals for Iron Man last week?  I feel like I'm doing really good.  And I hope to learn what's next before I lose the internet out here in Paris.  I'd hate to lose my edge because I'm not in my home base.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 17, 2010, 12:44:24 PM
BTW - if anyone wants to play an additional BO based game peep this (http://www.ez1productions.com/summer10/)  FUN!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 17, 2010, 09:01:24 PM
What is this weeks movie?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 17, 2010, 09:09:45 PM
What is this weeks movie?

I am really busy this week so wont get the totals updated until next week, sorry.

(http://meetinthelobby.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/macgruber_onesheet_movieposter_small.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 17, 2010, 09:24:51 PM
MacGruber  34.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 17, 2010, 10:44:26 PM
This could pan out so many different ways, but I'll say $15.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on May 17, 2010, 10:46:23 PM
20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 17, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
12.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 17, 2010, 11:04:58 PM
18.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on May 17, 2010, 11:11:51 PM
$14.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 18, 2010, 07:19:44 AM
$16.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 18, 2010, 07:53:19 AM
11.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 18, 2010, 08:40:54 AM
The box office is pretty crowded this week, what with Shrek, Iron Man, and Robin Hood.

14.6m for MacGruber.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 18, 2010, 10:05:01 AM
Robin Hood - $36.1 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
Clovis8     36.7     .6
1SO     37.2     1.1
matt tmw     32.5     3.6
michael x     39.7     3.6
DrKimble     42     5.9
Melvil     42.1     6
Keith     28.5     7.6
NeutralGrey     45.8     9.7
Bill     24.5     11.6
lotr-sam0711     67.4     31.3
enzobot24     80     43.9
stevekimes     87     50.9
'Noke     90     53.9
Dave the Viewer     102     65.9
smirnoff     140     103.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 18, 2010, 10:34:39 AM
Balls. I'll make it back though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 18, 2010, 11:12:01 AM
20
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 18, 2010, 11:29:20 AM
Dave is so cheating.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 18, 2010, 04:01:12 PM
Dave is so cheating.

Am not, Smirnoff did a lot worse than I did. You are just seeing the reason I do not gamble for money, I suck at picking winners.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 18, 2010, 05:17:12 PM
I'm trying really hard. That's the sad part.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 18, 2010, 05:21:50 PM
Me Too
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 18, 2010, 05:24:32 PM
I can't wait for the unexpected hit/flop where the wild guessers have a glorious win.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 18, 2010, 06:38:29 PM
That's what I am hoping for with MacGruber, now I have seen others guesses, should have researched more.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 18, 2010, 06:39:29 PM
Melvil rules. Thanks for picking up my slack.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 18, 2010, 07:27:46 PM
Thanks for picking up my slack.
One letter away from an awesome out of context quote.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 18, 2010, 08:17:01 PM
Melvil rules. Thanks for picking up my slack.

No problem! I'll leave the actual leader board up to you, it's just fun to see how everyone's guesses for the individual movies turn out. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 19, 2010, 12:48:58 AM
I'm trying really hard. That's the sad part.

huh, what was the logic behind the 140 for RH? 
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on May 19, 2010, 03:19:14 AM
so for the weekend may 21-23 you have to guess to number one film i assume because guessing a lesser film in likely box office than Shrek 4 as MacGruber, theres always gonna more differential on the bigger film so if were guessing the number one i'm gonna go with;

Shrek 4 - $99m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 19, 2010, 07:08:25 AM
michael x, out of my way! I'm going up that ladder even if it means I have to kill every single one of you people! Man, gambling takes me to a dark place.

McGruber will tank hard: $9.7m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 19, 2010, 08:39:17 AM
I'm trying really hard. That's the sad part.

huh, what was the logic behind the 140 for RH? 

It's Robin Hood! ROBIN. HOOD.

But yeah, the people were right not to go.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 20, 2010, 02:20:24 PM
McGruber: meeeeehhh....13.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on May 20, 2010, 08:18:18 PM
so if we are guessing Macgruber (which is way easier to do than SHrek 4 to me) i'll roll with that

Shrek 4 at #1 - $99m
Macgruber at #4 - $10.3m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 20, 2010, 09:47:13 PM
19.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 21, 2010, 01:23:40 PM
14.55
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 22, 2010, 10:42:02 AM
MacGruber (http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/shrek-4-dominates-friday-box-office-while-macgruber-bombs) "managed an estimated $1.6 million on Friday, which will cause it to struggle to reach a mere $4.5 million for the weekend."

Yikes!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 22, 2010, 11:18:05 AM
Wow, what a bomb.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 22, 2010, 11:21:46 AM
Ouch.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 22, 2010, 03:01:20 PM
Bother
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 22, 2010, 03:06:36 PM
Allright Dave, you win this round...again.

But just you wait.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 25, 2010, 12:22:06 PM
MacGruber - $4 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
DrKimble     9.7     5.7
Darcy     10.3     6.3
Bill     11.2     7.2
matt tmw     12.5     8.5
Melvil     13.3     9.3
Keith     14.55     10.55
michael x     14.6     10.6
Corndog     14.7     10.7
1SO     15.3     11.3
smirnoff     16.6     12.6
NeutralGrey     18.8     14.8
lotr-sam0711     19.7     15.7
'Noke     20     16
stevekimes     20     16
Dave the Viewer     34.4     30.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 25, 2010, 12:41:06 PM
I guess at this point I have to throw in the towel.

You win this one Dave.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on May 25, 2010, 02:03:21 PM
Heh. Can I get in on this?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 25, 2010, 02:57:22 PM
I guess at this point I have to throw in the towel.

You win this one Dave.
Thanks, not a win I can be proud of though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 26, 2010, 03:09:36 PM
Are we going with Prince of Persia this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 27, 2010, 04:59:26 AM
I'm winning! WOHOOOO!

(http://i46.tinypic.com/2kgahs.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 27, 2010, 06:10:47 AM
You're gunna get your leg swept if you keep it up (http://allpoetry.com/s/images/smile/ninja.gif)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 27, 2010, 06:48:33 AM
 :D AWESOME!!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 27, 2010, 07:03:24 AM
You're gunna get your leg swept if you keep it up (http://allpoetry.com/s/images/smile/ninja.gif)
Crane kick to THE FACE, Robin Hood fan boy!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 27, 2010, 07:11:33 AM
You're gunna get your leg swept if you keep it up (http://allpoetry.com/s/images/smile/ninja.gif)
Crane kick to THE FACE, Robin Hood fan boy!
Everything I do, I do it for you.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 27, 2010, 08:34:59 AM
You're gunna get your leg swept if you keep it up (http://allpoetry.com/s/images/smile/ninja.gif)
Crane kick to THE FACE, Robin Hood fan boy!
Everything I do, I do it for you.
:D :D :D Well, there's no love like your love and no other could give more love
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 27, 2010, 09:00:06 AM
You're gunna get your leg swept if you keep it up (http://allpoetry.com/s/images/smile/ninja.gif)
Crane kick to THE FACE, Robin Hood fan boy!
Everything I do, I do it for you.
:D :D :D Well, there's no love like your love and no other could give more love
You guys are no fun. We need more conflict and tension on these boards!

(not really)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 27, 2010, 11:48:38 AM
Sorry I have been lax in keeping this updated I am pretty busy right now.

Let's go with Prince of Persia this week. (I will get it all updated at some point!)

unless some kind soul wants to update it (I am looking at you melvil :D )
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on May 27, 2010, 11:52:00 AM
Prince of Persia: $22.2 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 27, 2010, 12:00:21 PM
Prince of Persia: $34.9 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on May 27, 2010, 12:08:44 PM
I will go 37 m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on May 27, 2010, 12:15:06 PM
100 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on May 27, 2010, 12:34:40 PM
35 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 27, 2010, 12:41:26 PM
65 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on May 27, 2010, 12:43:12 PM
Prince of Persia: 42.1 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 27, 2010, 02:49:33 PM
Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Weeks Missed
1SO     29.12     0
Bill     32.28     0
michael x     41.75     0
matt tmw     52.6     0
lotr-sam0711     56.8     0
DrKimble     59.15     0
NeutralGrey     62.1     0
smirnoff     109.1     0
corndog     133.6     0
Dave the Viewer     137.1     0
'Noke     162.5     0
          
Melvil     35.7     1
Keith     36.1     1
Clovis8     48.2     1
stevekimes     121.7     1
          
enzobot24     62.5     3
          
Darcy     6.3     4
Steven O. Selsnik     1.9     4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 27, 2010, 02:51:08 PM
Whew! That should do it, Clovis. :)

I ordered the list by weeks missed thinking that will give a clearer idea of where everyone actually stands.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 27, 2010, 03:25:48 PM
Whew! That should do it, Clovis. :)

I ordered the list by weeks missed thinking that will give a clearer idea of where everyone actually stands.

(http://www.weird-websites.info/Weird%20Inventions/images/stress-busters-relaxation-inventions-Pat-On-The-Back-Apparatus.jpg)

If you own such a device, now would be the time to use it :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on May 27, 2010, 03:28:52 PM
Prince of Persia: 46.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 27, 2010, 03:42:50 PM
Yay I am not last. Prince of Persia 25M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 27, 2010, 03:44:08 PM
POP, 26.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on May 27, 2010, 08:11:10 PM
Prince of Persia - $51.42m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on May 28, 2010, 03:43:45 AM
Prince of Persia: $38.4m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 28, 2010, 01:35:21 PM
POP: 35.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 28, 2010, 01:36:09 PM
Heh. Can I get in on this?
Did any of the organizers respond to this?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on May 28, 2010, 01:44:02 PM
I'm feeling semi-optimistic about PoP. Imma go with 64.1.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 29, 2010, 03:55:22 PM
$10,200,000 for Friday so it should land somewhere between me and DOOM!!!.  (closer to DOOM!!!)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on May 30, 2010, 08:55:07 PM
USA Weekend Box-Office Summary
week of 28 May 2010 Rank Title Weekend Gross
1    Shrek Forever After (2010)  $43.3M
2    Sex and the City 2 (2010)  $32.1M 
3    Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (2010)  $30.2M
4    Iron Man 2 (2010)  $16M 
5    Robin Hood (2010)  $10.3M
6    Letters to Juliet (2010)  $5.91M
7    Just Wright (2010)  $2.2M
8    Date Night (2010)  $1.75M
9    MacGruber (2010)  $1.48M 
10    How to Train Your Dragon (2010)  $1.02M


from IMDB, who almost always get it right. At least i got S&C2 over POP right, though either will make even $100m in US!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 31, 2010, 01:43:06 AM
When the final numbers come out, Bill and I should be within a million of each other.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 01, 2010, 05:10:30 PM
Prince of Persia - $37.8 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
DrKimble     38.4     .6
Clovis8     37     .8
matt tmw     35.5     2.3
lotr-sam0711     35     2.8
1SO     34.9     2.9
michael x     42.1     4.3
NeutralGrey     46.3     8.5
Bill     26.5     11.3
Dave the Viewer     25     12.8
Darcy     51.42     13.62
Corndog     22.2     15.6
Melvil     64.1     26.3
smirnoff     65     27.2
'Noke     100     62.2



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Weeks Missed
1SO     32.02     0
Bill     42.58     0
michael x     46.05     0
matt tmw     54.9     0
lotr-sam0711     59.6     0
DrKimble     59.75     0
NeutralGrey     70.6     0
smirnoff     136.3     0
corndog     149.2     0
Dave the Viewer     149.9     0
'Noke     224.7     0
       
Clovis8     49.0     1
Melvil     62     1
       
Keith     36.1     2
stevekimes     121.7     2
       
Darcy     19.92     4
enzobot24     62.5     4
       
Steven O. Selsnik     1.9     5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 01, 2010, 05:11:19 PM
A lot of close guesses on this one. Strangely, none of the rankings (in the 0 weeks missed group) changed.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 01, 2010, 05:47:00 PM
I'm gunna seabiscuit your asses in June. You'll see! :)

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 01, 2010, 07:23:17 PM
So what is the film for this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 01, 2010, 07:27:14 PM
So what is the film for this week?
(http://www.baird.ca/stephanie/images/poster_splice-poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 01, 2010, 07:32:36 PM
Hmmm, this is a toughie. It has some good names attached, but I haven't seen a lot of pub for it, I'm gonna say,

$25Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 01, 2010, 07:34:10 PM
28M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 01, 2010, 07:34:36 PM
Hey Melvil;

Thanks a lot for picking up my slack. I dont think I missed a week though, in terms of guessing.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on June 01, 2010, 07:43:29 PM
That new manchild comedy will siphon off some of the sales.

12.4 million for Splice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 01, 2010, 08:44:06 PM
$16.98 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on June 01, 2010, 08:44:53 PM
10 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 01, 2010, 09:23:00 PM
17 Million for splice :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 01, 2010, 10:46:21 PM
10 for Splice
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: BlueVoid on June 01, 2010, 10:48:22 PM
11.5 for Splice
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 01, 2010, 11:02:59 PM
Splice: 16.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on June 01, 2010, 11:16:12 PM
18.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on June 01, 2010, 11:18:48 PM
14 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 02, 2010, 02:10:24 AM
Hey Melvil;

Thanks a lot for picking up my slack. I dont think I missed a week though, in terms of guessing.

You dare question me!?  ;)

You didn't guess on MacGruber. I double checked cuz' it seemed weird to me too.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 02, 2010, 03:12:59 AM
Thinking about it, I went too high, change my guess to 14.5 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 02, 2010, 08:57:09 AM
15 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 02, 2010, 09:09:46 AM
Hey Melvil;

Thanks a lot for picking up my slack. I dont think I missed a week though, in terms of guessing.

You dare question me!?  ;)

You didn't guess on MacGruber. I double checked cuz' it seemed weird to me too.

Interesting it appears you are correct (as usual :) ) I did miss that week!

As for Splice 12.9

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on June 02, 2010, 10:04:15 AM
That was the second week in a row I came out on top. Three's a charm, here we go:

$17.8m

Ps. Splice is a tricky one. The trailer was pretty good, the actors are recognizable enough to get people's attention and the director isn't exactly unknown. If the stars align, this could break $25m. I say people are ready for some sci-fi horror (but I'm too chicken to go $25m - let's play it safe)!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 02, 2010, 11:15:33 AM
I'm going to play it conservative this time, after my optimism for PoP came back to bite me. I gotta make up some ground!

I'll say 16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 05, 2010, 04:53:17 PM
$2,705,000 for Friday.

Matt will do well.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on June 05, 2010, 05:27:45 PM
$2,705,000 for Friday.

Matt and 'Noke will do well.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Moviebuff28 on June 05, 2010, 06:23:09 PM
Splice will make $10 million.  It could do really well but it is so not commercial.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 07, 2010, 03:36:38 PM
Splice - $7.4 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
'Noke     10     2.6
matt tmw     10     2.6
BlueVoid     11.5     4.1
michael x     12.4     5
Clovis8     12.9     5.5
stevekimes     14     6.6
Bill     14.5     7.1
lotr-sam0711     15     7.6
NeutralGrey     16.4     9
Melvil     16.5     9.1
1SO     16.98     9.58
smirnoff     17     9.6
DrKimble     17.8     10.4
Corndog     18.7     11.3
Dave the Viewer     28     20.6



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Weeks Missed
1SO     41.6     0
Bill     49.68     0
michael x     51.05     0
matt tmw     57.5     0
lotr-sam0711     67.2     0
DrKimble     70.15     0
NeutralGrey     79.6     0
smirnoff     145.9     0
corndog     160.5     0
Dave the Viewer     170.5     0
'Noke     227.3     0
          
Clovis8     54.5     1
Melvil     71.1     1
          
stevekimes     121.3     2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 07, 2010, 03:38:04 PM
I think I've been right in the middle every single week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 07, 2010, 03:41:29 PM
This week everybody over-guessed! The numbers were not significant enough to affect the rankings, everybody held their position. We need another blockbuster to shake things up!

Also, I cut off the max weeks missed for the leaderboard to 2. I think this was what was discussed anyways, and it's hard to keep track of all that. Everybody still gets counted for the week-by-week scoreboards, so I hope that doesn't bother anyone.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 07, 2010, 03:42:06 PM
I think I've been right in the middle every single week.

It's your name. It screams "middle-of-the-road".
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 07, 2010, 03:43:43 PM
I think I've been right in the middle every single week.

It's your name. It screams "middle-of-the-road".

I'm not sure how I feel about this.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 07, 2010, 03:44:21 PM
How many films are we going to do before we start again fresh?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 07, 2010, 03:45:32 PM
I'm not sure how I feel about this.

 :D

 ???

 :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 07, 2010, 03:46:24 PM
I thought this had fallen apart. can I still play along even though it will ultimately end in a DQ?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 07, 2010, 03:55:32 PM
I think I've been right in the middle every single week.

It's your name. It screams "middle-of-the-road".
;D :D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 07, 2010, 03:57:34 PM
I thought this had fallen apart. can I still play along even though it will ultimately end in a DQ?

Join in the more the merrier.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 07, 2010, 03:58:03 PM
What is this weeks film?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 07, 2010, 04:18:24 PM
What is this weeks film?

I refuse to acknowledge the existence of The A-Team so lets do....

(http://blog.80millionmoviesfree.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/the-karate-kid-movie-2010.jpg)

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 07, 2010, 04:21:05 PM
Family film! Tricky.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 07, 2010, 04:49:24 PM
68.5Million for Karate Kid... which I think I'll go see :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on June 07, 2010, 04:52:52 PM
20 mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 07, 2010, 04:59:13 PM
35.1 for Karate Kid
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on June 07, 2010, 05:46:13 PM
27.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 07, 2010, 11:31:54 PM
$14.6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on June 07, 2010, 11:50:07 PM
15 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 08, 2010, 12:02:33 AM
18
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 08, 2010, 04:16:27 AM
19M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 08, 2010, 07:13:09 AM
17.8 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 08, 2010, 10:10:07 AM
25 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 08, 2010, 10:11:18 AM
16.8m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 08, 2010, 09:23:46 PM
Karate Kid....29.0
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on June 08, 2010, 09:53:05 PM
KK 23.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on June 11, 2010, 02:50:17 AM
again, my are we guessing on the easier one, who knows that The A-Team will get, though it i'll get more than Karate Kid, which will do:

31.6m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 11, 2010, 01:24:19 PM
kk - 35.34 (And likely #1 over A-Team)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on June 11, 2010, 04:25:54 PM
$18.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 13, 2010, 02:18:25 AM
The Karate Kid raked in an estimated $18.8 million [on Friday] .... The trajectories of past comparable titles suggests that Karate Kid's opening weekend will be north of $50 million. (via boxofficemojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2815&p=.htm))

Looks like a lot of people are going to be way under this week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on June 14, 2010, 01:52:23 AM
I suck at this game.  I'm so bad at anything related to money. 

 I think I'll go home and lick my wounds. 

(http://fc03.deviantart.net/fs50/i/2009/326/f/c/Ill_lick_my_own_wounds_by_GeClaws.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 14, 2010, 07:14:21 AM
I knew I was being too conservative. Never underestimate the selling value of Jackie Chan.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 14, 2010, 06:10:52 PM
The Karate Kid - $55.7 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
smirnoff     68.5     12.8
Keith     35.34     20.36
NeutralGrey     35.1     20.6
Darcy     31.6     24.1
Melvil     29     26.7
corndog     27.8     27.9
lotr-sam0711     25     30.7
michael x     23.6     32.1
Noke     20     35.7
Dave the Viewer     19     36.7
DrKimble     18.2     37.5
matt tmw     18     37.7
Bill     17.8     37.9
Clovis8     16.8     38.9
stevekimes     15     40.7
1SO     14.6     41.1



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change     Weeks Missed
1SO     82.7     
-
     
0
michael x     83.15     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
Bill     87.58     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
matt tmw     95.2     
-
     
0
lotr-sam0711     97.9     
-
     
0
NeutralGrey     100.2     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
DrKimble     107.65     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
smirnoff     158.7     
-
     
0
corndog     188.4     
-
     
0
Dave the Viewer     207.2     
-
     
0
'Noke     263     
-
     
0
          
Clovis8     93.4     
-
     
1
Melvil     97.8     
-
     
1
          
stevekimes     162     
-
     
2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 14, 2010, 06:12:00 PM
smirnoff is the only person who over-guessed this round, but it seems to have worked out for him. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 14, 2010, 06:25:09 PM
How many films are we going to do before we start again fresh?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 14, 2010, 07:09:34 PM
If you're asking me, I haven't a clue. I just run the numbers. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 14, 2010, 07:14:53 PM
Looks like I caught the fly in the chopsticks this week, gentlemen. ;) The beginning of my comeback!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 14, 2010, 10:34:18 PM
If you're asking me, I haven't a clue. I just run the numbers. ;)

Which is much appreciated, by the way!

I had originally guessed 45, but then I changed it to 35.  I should learn to go with my gut.

What's coming out next weekend?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on June 14, 2010, 10:35:11 PM
Toy Story and Jonah Hex, looks like.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 15, 2010, 12:16:47 AM
Ya Melvil is so good with those tables I might just let him do it alway if he doesnt mind.

As for the ending of this round how about we go 5 more weeks which will take us to the end of July?

As for this week lets blow this thing open...

(http://sifranzaypinoy.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/poster-toystory3.jpg)

I will guess 126m.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 15, 2010, 12:19:23 AM
110.3 for Toy Story
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on June 15, 2010, 12:20:12 AM
$135.2 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 15, 2010, 12:40:47 AM
I'm going conservative.  Pixar's about stamina, not opening weekends.  (Then again, I've really been off the last 2 weeks.)

$92.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 15, 2010, 12:46:00 AM
116.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 15, 2010, 04:35:12 AM
150M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 15, 2010, 05:58:07 AM
95.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 15, 2010, 06:36:13 AM
140
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on June 15, 2010, 08:34:26 AM
100
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: oldkid on June 15, 2010, 10:15:07 AM
One last time:

90 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 15, 2010, 10:15:54 AM
120
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 15, 2010, 01:54:28 PM
87

Some mighty high guesses. Guess we'll see who's right. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on June 15, 2010, 06:07:10 PM
Going to lowball this one.

Toy Story 3: 79.2m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 18, 2010, 03:47:32 PM
121.33
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: BlueVoid on June 18, 2010, 09:32:07 PM
TS3: 95mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 19, 2010, 11:39:06 AM
DHD Est: 40m OD, 120m OW.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 19, 2010, 11:41:53 AM
*Pumps fist*
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 19, 2010, 01:07:29 PM
Well darn.

I mean, yay!

But darn.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 20, 2010, 12:41:08 PM
Estimates at $109 million so congratulations to NeutralGrey.

110.3 for Toy Story
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 20, 2010, 01:19:23 PM
Thanks!  Hopefully that is an accurate estimate.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 21, 2010, 03:08:06 PM
Toy Story 3 - $110.3 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
NeutrualGrey     110.3     0
matt tmw     116.6     6.3
lotr-sam0711     120     9.7
'Noke     100     10.3
Keith     121.33     11.03
smirnoff     95.6     14.7
BlueVoid     95     15.3
Clovis8     126     15.7
1SO     92.5     17.8
stevekimes     90     20.3
Melvil     87     23.3
Corndog     135.2     24.9
Bill     140     29.7
michael x     79.2     31.1
Dave the Viewer     150     39.7


Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change     Weeks Missed
NeutralGrey     100.2     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
1SO     100.5     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
matt tmw     101.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
lotr-sam0711     107.6     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
michael x     114.25     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
Bill     117.28     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
smirnoff     173.4     
-
     
0
corndog     213.3     
-
     
0
Dave the Viewer     246.9     
-
     
0
'Noke     273.3     
-
     
0
          
Clovis8     109.1     
-
     
1
Melvil     121.1     
-
     
1
DrKimble     107.65     
-
     
1
          
stevekimes     182.3     
-
     
2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 21, 2010, 03:08:30 PM
Super congrats to NeutralGrey! Very impressive.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 21, 2010, 03:15:20 PM
Wow, well done.

Also nice to see I moved up a couple of spots.  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 21, 2010, 03:19:15 PM
Wow, well done.

Also nice to see I moved up a couple of spots.  ;D

I'm really surprised how close it is between the top 6 of you. It won't take much for positions to change quite a bit.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 21, 2010, 03:30:19 PM
And this weeks movie is?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 21, 2010, 03:33:25 PM
Wow.  That shot me way up the list too.

I'm sure I'll mess it up this week though  :-\
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 21, 2010, 04:35:59 PM
And this weeks movie is?

With my move I am insanely busy so maybe Melvil wants to take total control of this for a few weeks?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 21, 2010, 05:57:30 PM
With my move I am insanely busy so maybe Melvil wants to take total control of this for a few weeks?
Eek, responsibility! ;) I'll see what I can do.

Not much of a choice this week, so let's go with:

(http://i46.tinypic.com/2d7ejo6.jpg)

Note: Opening Wednesday
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on June 21, 2010, 06:00:18 PM
so since it opens wednesday, are we still doing opening weekend, meaning wed-sun?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 21, 2010, 06:19:04 PM
If this wasn't the most interesting choice this week I'd have avoided the complication of the Wednesday opening. I think it'll be easiest to stick to the official weekend of Fri-Sun, so I'm going to exercise my newly appointed power and make that arbitrary ruling. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 21, 2010, 06:26:20 PM
If this wasn't the most interesting choice this week I'd have avoided the complication of the Wednesday opening. I think it'll be easiest to stick to the official weekend of Fri-Sun, so I'm going to exercise my newly appointed power and make that arbitrary ruling. ;)

Hail to the new dictator!  ;)

<----awkward wave from within my shackles in the dungeon.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on June 21, 2010, 08:15:41 PM
Knight & Day: $23.3 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 21, 2010, 10:58:04 PM
sweet, get to see how badly this bombs wed & thurs before giving the weekend # ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 22, 2010, 12:31:23 AM
sweet, get to see how badly this bombs wed & thurs before giving the weekend # ;)

The weekend's gonna turn it around!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 22, 2010, 04:04:33 AM
35M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 22, 2010, 09:11:39 PM
33.5 for Knight & Day
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 22, 2010, 10:38:26 PM
sweet, get to see how badly this bombs wed & thurs before giving the weekend # ;)

The weekend's gonna turn it around!

yeah, but it'll be Sandler, James & Rock that do it! ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on June 22, 2010, 11:18:05 PM
25 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 22, 2010, 11:37:24 PM
$39.3 milion
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 23, 2010, 12:22:25 AM
18.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 23, 2010, 10:41:32 AM
22 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 25, 2010, 02:44:02 PM
Knight and Day: 16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 25, 2010, 03:03:55 PM
23.85
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on June 26, 2010, 12:43:39 AM
Knight & Day - $26m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 27, 2010, 09:41:50 PM
So, we're going to have an interesting choice for next week. We've got The Last Airbender opening against Twilight: Eclipse (Thursday and Wednesday, respectively. What happened to opening on weekends?). I know which way I'm leaning, but what do you all think will be the more interesting pick?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 28, 2010, 06:12:30 AM
Airbender will be a harder one to judge (as it is not a sequel), so go with that one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 28, 2010, 12:33:05 PM
I say Airbender as well. It can easily bomb or be a big hit I think.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on June 28, 2010, 04:25:58 PM
given his ominous but silly The Happening, M. Night's newbie The Last Airbender should again live up to a stupid title, hopefully it will be what Speed Racer is to some Wachowski fans, a film of chessy fun with over-the-top characters and unique cgi and use of color, though the character names seem more bland, also i was 50/50 on Unbreakable, so don't expect me opening weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 28, 2010, 04:58:03 PM
Knight and Day - $20.1 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
matt tmw     18.5     1.6
Bill     22     1.9
Corndog     23.3     3.2
Melvil     16.5     3.6
Keith     23.85     3.75
lotr-sam0711     25     4.9
Darcy     26     5.9
NeutralGrey     33.5     13.4
Dave the Viewer     35     14.9
1SO     39.3     19.2



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change     Weeks Missed
matt tmw     103.1     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
Lotr-sam0711     112.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
NeutralGrey     113.6     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
Bill     119.18     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
1SO     119.7     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
Corndog     216.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
Dave the Viewer     261.8     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
          
michael x     114.25     
-
     
1
Melvil     124.7     
-
     
1
smirnoff     173.4     
-
     
1
'Noke     273.3     
-
     
1
          
DrKimble     107.65     
-
     
2
Clovis8     109.1     
-
     
2



Up Next:

(http://i45.tinypic.com/2dgre4p.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 28, 2010, 05:02:35 PM
Clovis, I'll defer to you since you started this round, but how about wrapping this round up after this one? People keep falling off the leaderboard so it's feeling like time for a reset. I think shorter runs would probably be better.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Clovis8 on June 28, 2010, 05:08:32 PM
Clovis, I'll defer to you since you started this round, but how about wrapping this round up after this one? People keep falling off the leaderboard so it's feeling like time for a reset. I think shorter runs would probably be better.

I am cool with that.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 28, 2010, 05:17:51 PM
Man this is going to be tough.

I'll say $32.4 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 28, 2010, 05:19:34 PM
Somehow I missed last week. Argh. Anyways. Airbender = $27,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 28, 2010, 05:46:14 PM
35 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 28, 2010, 10:03:38 PM
Clovis, I'll defer to you since you started this round, but how about wrapping this round up after this one? People keep falling off the leaderboard so it's feeling like time for a reset. I think shorter runs would probably be better.
I am cool with that.
Nah, let's end it now.  ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 28, 2010, 11:32:40 PM
Damn, I dropped quite a bit there.

I need to think about this next one a bit so I can surge back into the lead!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 29, 2010, 04:07:54 PM
25M, better all stay away from this guess based on my history in this round. I am soooo going to do better in the next round.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 29, 2010, 04:09:35 PM
I'll go $45mil. Probably too optimistic, but I'm hoping for a surprise.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on June 30, 2010, 01:53:58 AM
Apparently this movie is terrible so I will go with 20.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 30, 2010, 01:41:29 PM
So is this Fri-Sun, Fri-Mon, Thu-Sun or Thu-Mon?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on June 30, 2010, 02:01:19 PM
We're sticking with what is counted as the official weekend, which I believe will always be Fri-Sun.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 30, 2010, 03:17:57 PM
The Last Airbender: 38
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on July 02, 2010, 02:24:48 AM
34.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 02, 2010, 03:42:17 AM
The Last Airbender - $19m

why isn't it coming out next week, it will get murdered by Twlight Eclipse (which did a $68 opening wednesday, CINECAST! that)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 02, 2010, 10:47:44 AM
$22 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 02, 2010, 03:54:01 PM
Fri-Sun: 37.45
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 02, 2010, 05:09:42 PM
Fri-Sun: 37.45
Does Thursday not count for the game?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 04, 2010, 12:41:14 PM
Fri-Sun: 37.45
Does Thursday not count for the game?

We're sticking with what is counted as the official weekend, which I believe will always be Fri-Sun.

3-day estimate: $40,650,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 05, 2010, 01:34:02 PM
Fri-Sun: 37.45
Does Thursday not count for the game?
We're sticking with what is counted as the official weekend, which I believe will always be Fri-Sun.

Okie dokie.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 03:56:47 PM
The Last Airbender - $40.3 Mil

Player     Guess     Difference
matt tmw     38     2.3
Keith     37.45     2.85
Melvil     45     4.7
Bill     35     5.3
DrKimble     34.3     6
1SO     32.4     7.9
smirnoff     27     13.3
Dave the Viewer     25     15.3
Lotr-sam0711     22     18.3
NeutralGrey     20.1     20.2
Darcy     19     21.3



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change     Weeks Missed
matt tmw     105.4     
-
     
0
Bill     124.48     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
1SO     127.6     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
Lotr-sam0711     130.8     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
NeutralGrey     133.8     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
     
0
Dave the Viewer     277.1     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
     
0
          
Melvil     129.4     
-
     
1
smirnoff     186.7     
-
     
1
Corndog     216.5     
-
     
1
          
DrKimble     113.65     
-
     
2
michael x     114.25     
-
     
2
'Noke     273.3     
-
     
2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 03:58:09 PM
Congrats on hanging onto the title, matt!

We're going to start a new round this week, so everybody get ready for clean slates!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 06, 2010, 04:44:32 PM
Yikes, I fell pretty hard.  Congrats matt!

Which movie is up next?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 06, 2010, 05:32:54 PM
I win 105.4 million dollars, right?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 05:47:45 PM
I win 105.4 million dollars, right?

Imma defer that to Clovis. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 05:58:09 PM
New Round!

Up First:

(http://i49.tinypic.com/142wnqf.jpg)

How it Works

Each week I will post a new movie that is opening that week. All you have to do is make a guess at the opening weekend (Friday - Sunday) box office intake. That's it!

This round will last 6 weeks, so that's 6 guesses. We'll try it a little shorter and see how that goes. Anybody can play any week, but you have to play all 6 weeks to compete on the running scoreboard.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 06, 2010, 06:05:54 PM
Nice job matt.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 06, 2010, 06:14:01 PM
Yes, congrats Matt, I just didn't have it in me to catch you.

For Predators I'm going to start off bad by letting my sci-fi geek brain say,

35 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 06, 2010, 06:37:33 PM
Thanks, y'all. Total fluke.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 06:50:22 PM
Predators: 23.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 06, 2010, 08:11:12 PM
$19.8 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 06, 2010, 08:31:37 PM
We should do it Price Is Right style. ;)

Predators - $41.3 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 06, 2010, 08:35:52 PM
We should do it Price Is Right style. ;)

Predators - $41.3 million

1 dollar!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Marbe on July 06, 2010, 09:40:49 PM
30 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 06, 2010, 10:03:13 PM
$36 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 07, 2010, 12:18:54 AM
Predators - $17.5 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 07, 2010, 03:40:39 AM
Congrats Matt.

Predators 28M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on July 07, 2010, 04:11:21 AM
Congrats Matt.
Well done indeed.

$23.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on July 07, 2010, 10:26:45 AM
Predators - $31.2m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 08, 2010, 06:32:01 AM
Predators - 15.3m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 08, 2010, 09:22:59 AM
33 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 08, 2010, 06:54:13 PM
24.2 for Predators
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 09, 2010, 04:02:41 PM
24.75
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 09, 2010, 05:46:10 PM
28.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 09, 2010, 06:29:18 PM
27.4m $
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 11, 2010, 04:29:45 PM
est: $25,300,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 11, 2010, 04:52:04 PM
est: $25,300,000

I think you win. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 12, 2010, 04:20:39 PM
You're total for Predators is wrong, yet your math is impeccable.

Inception: $88.8mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 12, 2010, 04:21:59 PM
O man. I'm gonna go an even 100 on this one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 12, 2010, 04:22:09 PM
Predators - $24.8 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
¡Keith!     24.75     0.05
NeutralGrey     24.2     0.6
Melvil     23.8     1
DrKimble     23.6     1.2
Beavermoose     27.4     2.6
Dave     28     3.2
matt tmw     28.5     3.7
FLYmeatwad     19.8     5
Marbegirl     30     5.2
michael x     31.2     6.4
1SO     17.5     7.3
Sam     33     8.2
Darcy     15.3     9.5
Bill     35     10.2
Corndog     36     11.2
smirnoff     41.3     16.5



Up Next:

(http://i26.tinypic.com/2r7bl1e.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 12, 2010, 04:22:55 PM
Inception, 66 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 12, 2010, 04:23:02 PM
You're total for Predators is wrong, yet your math is impeccable.

Yeah, sorry about that. Just caught it.

I apologize to Keith for having to round to the first decimal. He's actually only .01 off from the actual numbers. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 12, 2010, 04:34:57 PM
Yeah I am in the top half (so far).

Inception 70M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 12, 2010, 04:35:32 PM
I really have no idea what to expect from Inception. I'm going to go with 79.2, which is exactly half what The Dark Knight made opening weekend. In my head, this reasoning almost makes sense.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 12, 2010, 04:37:47 PM
84.7 Million$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Marbe on July 13, 2010, 11:12:21 AM
I'd like to pull a Price is Right on Beavermoose and say 84.8 million but I'll go with

$86.2 million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 13, 2010, 12:01:47 PM
So far the guesses have a 34 million range between them. This could be interesting.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 13, 2010, 12:02:20 PM
87.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 13, 2010, 12:13:52 PM
$94.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 13, 2010, 01:20:39 PM
So far the guesses have a 34 million range between them. This could be interesting.

Just guess away from me because I suck at this game. Never freaking close.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 13, 2010, 02:58:40 PM
I apologize to Keith for having to round to the first decimal. He's actually only .01 off from the actual numbers. :P

 ;D

getting games confused, didn;t realize this one was to 1 . place only.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 13, 2010, 05:23:33 PM
I suck at this...

Inception: $77 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 13, 2010, 09:22:29 PM
I don't think the mass market is as excited about it as we are. I think it will have a good opening, but make more money over time.

So I'll go with 64.4 for Inception.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 13, 2010, 09:27:41 PM
I don't think the mass market is as excited about it as we are. I think it will have a good opening, but make more money over time.

I don't know, It seems like it's being pretty heavily advertised, and between the "Matrixy" look of things and the "From the director of The Dark Knight" label it seems like it could really do well.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on July 13, 2010, 09:28:34 PM
71.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on July 14, 2010, 02:12:59 AM
I don't think the mass market is as excited about it as we are. I think it will have a good opening, but make more money over time.
I agree and I'm going lower:

$58

I would go even lower if there was any competition this weekend.



I don't know, It seems like it's being pretty heavily advertised, and between the "Matrixy" look of things and the "From the director of The Dark Knight" label it seems like it could really do well.
Yeah but the trailer doesn't look like dumb fun. It's a thriller and thrillers ain't killers at the boxoffice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 15, 2010, 11:21:00 PM
Inception: 60.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 15, 2010, 11:40:26 PM
Inception BIG - $101m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 16, 2010, 04:00:14 PM
66.88
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 17, 2010, 12:31:16 PM
Friday Est: $21,645,000

(went too high - Matt & Kimble look to be closest)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on July 17, 2010, 12:32:17 PM
$90 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 17, 2010, 12:36:38 PM
Hmm...I'm betting it will have good legs, but I'd like to see a decent opening weekend too.

By the way, where do you get your numbers? You seem to be faster than the mojo.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 17, 2010, 12:38:45 PM
Hmm...I'm betting it will have good legs, but I'd like to see a decent opening weekend too.

By the way, where do you get your numbers? You seem to be faster than the mojo.

heh, just have to know how to work the mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-07-16&p=.htm)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 17, 2010, 03:26:29 PM
$90 million

Can you put in your guess after the weekend has started?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 17, 2010, 04:07:16 PM
Can you put in your guess after the weekend has started?

Technically the cut off is Friday, before any numbers start coming in. If you're on the leaderboard I'll be more strict about it. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 18, 2010, 11:20:31 AM
Mojo's Est: $60,400,000

actually increased 10k friday to saturday which I think is pretty impressive given the usual frontloading and the fact that 3m came in from thursday midnights.


Top openers not based on previous material
Avatar  77mill
The Incredibles  70m
Finding Nemo  70m
The Day after Tomorrow 68m
Up 68m
Bruce Almighty 67m
2012 65m
Wall-E 63m
Hancock 62m
Monsters Inc 62m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 18, 2010, 12:13:48 PM
Not that impressive, but I wouldn't b surprised if it picked up speed and ended up making a crap ton.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 18, 2010, 12:22:51 PM
Top openers not based on previous material
Avatar  77mill
The Incredibles  70m
Finding Nemo  70m
The Day after Tomorrow 68m
Up 68m
Bruce Almighty 67m
2012 65m
Wall-E 63m
Hancock 62m
Monsters Inc 62m

You couldn't have posted that info before I made my guess? ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 18, 2010, 03:32:23 PM
Not that impressive, but I wouldn't b surprised if it picked up speed and ended up making a crap ton.

I don't think the mass market is as excited about it as we are. I think it will have a good opening, but make more money over time.

So I'll go with 64.4 for Inception.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 19, 2010, 01:02:39 AM
You see the future.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 19, 2010, 10:38:23 AM
Guru tweets: (http://twitter.com/giteshpandya/status/18917873936)

"SUN better than expected for Inception. Updated wknd gross is $61.7M, $16271 avg. +$1.3M vs. est."
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 19, 2010, 02:57:07 PM
Inception - $62.8 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
NeutralGrey     64.4     1.6
matt tmw     60.5     2.3
Bill     66     3.2
¡Keith!     66.88     4.08
DrKimble     58     4.8
Dave     70     7.2
michael x     71.8     9
smirnoff     77     14.2
Melvil     79.2     16.4
Beavermoose     84.7     21.9
Marbegirl     86.2     23.4
1SO     87.4     24.6
Corndog     88.8     26
GothamCity151     90     27.2
FLYmeatwad     94.2     31.4
Sam     100     37.2
Darcy     101     38.2



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
NeutralGrey     2.2    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
¡Keith!     4.13    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
DrKimble     6    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
matt tmw     6    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Dave     10.4    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Bill     13.4    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
michael x     15.4    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Melvil     17.4    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Beavermoose     24.5    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Marbegirl     28.6    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
smirnoff     30.7    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     31.9    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
FLYmeatwad     36.4    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Corndog     37.2    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Sam     45.4    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Darcy     47.7    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Up Next:

(http://i30.tinypic.com/2agcw4.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 19, 2010, 02:58:28 PM
Salt: $22.6 mil

I suck so hard at this game. Seriously people, one last warning: guess away from me!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 19, 2010, 02:59:54 PM
Not a particularly interesting release week. I don't know anything about Salt, and that makes me skeptical. I'll say 14.4.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 19, 2010, 03:00:37 PM
I suck so hard at this game. Seriously people, one last warning: guess away from me!

Hey, you went up a slot! ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 19, 2010, 03:01:40 PM
I suck so hard at this game. Seriously people, one last warning: guess away from me!

Hey, you went up a slot! ;D

Ha, that is true.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 19, 2010, 03:04:08 PM
Salt
29.6 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 19, 2010, 03:12:49 PM
20 mill

Man, I was overconfident last round.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 19, 2010, 03:21:24 PM
27.3 for Salt
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 19, 2010, 03:32:14 PM
Salt, 17 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 19, 2010, 03:39:22 PM
Salt 17.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 19, 2010, 04:03:48 PM
positive WOM is evident for Inception in only 3 days.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 19, 2010, 06:08:17 PM
this time im musn't respond to other predictions and say that i think Salt would get all along

Salt - 24.5m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 22, 2010, 05:50:29 PM
Salt: 32.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 22, 2010, 06:26:22 PM
SALTY 29.8M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 22, 2010, 08:20:14 PM
 2  5  .  7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on July 23, 2010, 03:58:15 AM
22.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 23, 2010, 09:24:32 AM
Forgot to guess. Can I still get in? If so...

$18.9M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on July 23, 2010, 11:45:56 AM
Salt - 30.0.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Steven O. Selsnik on July 23, 2010, 12:30:58 PM
Salt - 18 milly
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 23, 2010, 12:43:37 PM
I feel like Salt is going to be a surprise hit. It's an original film that looks entertaining and seems to have those Bourne ties that will make audiences feel like they know what they're getting when they go in.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 23, 2010, 12:45:27 PM
I feel like Salt is going to be a surprise hit. It's an original film that looks entertaining and seems to have those Bourne ties that will make audiences feel like they know what they're getting when they go in.

That doesn't bode well for my guess.

Curse my disconnect from mainstream advertising!

P.S., take a guess, rodent.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 23, 2010, 12:48:38 PM
I feel like Salt is going to be a surprise hit. It's an original film that looks entertaining and seems to have those Bourne ties that will make audiences feel like they know what they're getting when they go in.

That doesn't bode well for my guess.

Curse my disconnect from mainstream advertising!

P.S., take a guess, rodent.

I'm bad with guessing actually numbers, so I won't partake in that. But I also don't think it's the advertising that will sell Salt. There has been a trend this summer of ignoring those films that would be big obvious hits. Sex and the City, Prince of Persia and so on. People are looking for quality and to a certain extent originality. Something that seems new and interesting and not something like Prince of Persia that seems like a crass marketing tool. Despicable Me was an unexpected hit. Inception is a hit. Salt will be a hit. That's my thinking at least.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 23, 2010, 12:59:14 PM
I'm bad with guessing actually numbers, so I won't partake in that.
Boo. Hiss.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 23, 2010, 01:07:28 PM
I'm bad with guessing actually numbers, so I won't partake in that.
Boo. Hiss.

I won't give a number, but I will say not to be too surprised if Salt takes #1 this weekend from Inception.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 23, 2010, 03:59:31 PM
33.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 24, 2010, 01:22:14 PM
(http://i27.tinypic.com/28vdcpk.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 24, 2010, 01:29:27 PM
(http://i27.tinypic.com/28vdcpk.jpg)

*What does it mean?*
Double Rainbow!

So if we extrapolate based on friday sales are we going for 25-30 mill?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 24, 2010, 01:30:49 PM
It almost broke my guess on it's first day. :-\
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 24, 2010, 03:28:40 PM
It almost broke my guess on it's first day. :-\

Me too, I am going to be way under.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 24, 2010, 03:40:01 PM
My strategy of guessing between matt and NG is looking to pay off ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 24, 2010, 04:46:32 PM
Well, now I'm never going to guess until you guess first.  Ha!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 24, 2010, 07:39:03 PM
Inception rubs salt in the wound, nice maybe this 2nd week win is down to Avatar fans coming over, serious...

di Caprio v Worthington?
Nolan v Cameron?
that Indian guy enjoying his role this time.

WAY BETTER FILM, Salt won't get $20m will it...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 26, 2010, 09:52:13 AM
Est for Salt: $36,500,000 - pretty much dead-on in line with tracking... I'm shocked!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 26, 2010, 03:29:45 PM
Salt - $36 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
¡Keith!     33.8     2.2
matt tmw     32.5     3.5
michael x     30     6
smirnoff     29.8     6.2
Beavermoose     29.6     6.4
NeutralGrey     27.3     8.7
1SO     25.7     10.3
Darcy     24.5     11.5
Corndog     22.6     13.4
DrKimble     22.1     13.9
Sam     20     16
FLYmeatwad     18.9     17.1
Steven O     18     18
Dave     17.5     18.5
Bill     17     19
Melvil     14.4     21.6



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
¡Keith!     6.33     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
matt tmw     9.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
NeutralGrey     10.9     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
DrKimble     19.9     
-
michael x     21.4     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Dave     28.9     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Beavermoose     30.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Bill     32.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
smirnoff     36.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Melvil     39     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
1SO     42.2     
-
Corndog     50.6     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
FLYmeatwad     53.5     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Darcy     59.2     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Sam     61.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Up Next:

(http://i31.tinypic.com/bj3n.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 26, 2010, 03:30:12 PM
We all under-guessed. Me most of all. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 26, 2010, 03:49:59 PM
I win! Game over, people.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 26, 2010, 03:57:28 PM
I win! Game over, people.

No you don't, it is first to 100. You are almost there.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 26, 2010, 04:05:29 PM
I win! Game over, people.

No you don't, it is first to 100. You are almost there.
It's on.

33 mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on July 26, 2010, 04:22:26 PM
$27.6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 26, 2010, 04:27:03 PM
$  1  7  .  9   million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 26, 2010, 04:29:19 PM
$31.2 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 26, 2010, 04:48:33 PM
34.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 27, 2010, 10:14:52 AM
really? three 30m+ guesses for "Every day, I play catch with my dead brother" ?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 27, 2010, 10:16:05 AM
really? three 30m+ guesses for "Every day, I play catch with my dead brother" ?

Yeah, strikes me as odd as well. After the Ramona and Beezus debacle I have even less confidence in Charlie...but women really, really, really love Zac Efron.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 27, 2010, 10:21:30 AM
19.7M$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 27, 2010, 10:24:50 AM
Charlie St. Cloud, 23 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 27, 2010, 01:10:17 PM
18.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 27, 2010, 03:18:02 PM
really? three 30m+ guesses for "Every day, I play catch with my dead brother" ?

Yeah, strikes me as odd as well. After the Ramona and Beezus debacle I have even less confidence in Charlie...but women really, really, really love Zac Efron.

For me it was 30m+ for Zac Efron. Not being in the US I do not get to know the amount of ads being pumped out by the studio or the amount of buzz, so I go with what I have. Guess that is why my guesses are so often badly wrong.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 27, 2010, 03:20:16 PM
I'd think he'd be at least worth 30 mill opening weekend for all the girls who find him dreamy.

Also, until the whole seeing his dead brother thing I thought the film looked pretty decent.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 27, 2010, 03:35:52 PM
24.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 27, 2010, 03:43:07 PM
I proved how out of touch I am with the last round, but I feel like Efron's name is pretty bankable. I'll go 26.3.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 27, 2010, 03:54:26 PM
It's annoying factoring in the Efron factor, but you gotta do it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on July 27, 2010, 04:21:37 PM
Every film has its audience.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on July 27, 2010, 05:32:10 PM
18.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on July 27, 2010, 07:18:04 PM
Is it getting a wide release? I've heard nothing of this film. Me and Orson Wells didn't do so good even with Efron, but I think that was a limited release.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 27, 2010, 10:43:50 PM
2,500+ theaters according to BoxOfficeMojo, which is about average for a wide-release I think.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on July 28, 2010, 01:29:57 AM
Charlie St. Cloud - $9.8m

will open at #5, i reckon
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 28, 2010, 11:58:11 AM
I proved how out of touch I am with the last round, but I feel like Efron's name is pretty bankable. I'll go 26.3.

Hairspray Opening Weekend:  $27,476,745 in 3,121 theaters (Zac being a non-factor)
HSM3 Opening Weekend:  $42,030,184 in 3,626 theaters (Zac being kind of a factor)
17A Opening Weekend:  $23,722,310 in 3,255 theaters (Zac = lead)
Me & OW Opening Weekend:  $63,638 (Lead, but only in 4 theaters)

well, he's more bankable than Robert Pattinson.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on July 28, 2010, 02:41:35 PM
I proved how out of touch I am with the last round, but I feel like Efron's name is pretty bankable. I'll go 26.3.

Hairspray Opening Weekend:  $27,476,745 in 3,121 theaters (Zac being a non-factor)
HSM3 Opening Weekend:  $42,030,184 in 3,626 theaters (Zac being kind of a factor)
17A Opening Weekend:  $23,722,310 in 3,255 theaters (Zac = lead)
Me & OW Opening Weekend:  $63,638 (Lead, but only in 4 theaters)

well, he's more bankable than Robert Pattinson.

You and all your research. Make a guess already! ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 28, 2010, 11:26:04 PM
I proved how out of touch I am with the last round, but I feel like Efron's name is pretty bankable. I'll go 26.3.

Hairspray Opening Weekend:  $27,476,745 in 3,121 theaters (Zac being a non-factor)
HSM3 Opening Weekend:  $42,030,184 in 3,626 theaters (Zac being kind of a factor)
17A Opening Weekend:  $23,722,310 in 3,255 theaters (Zac = lead)
Me & OW Opening Weekend:  $63,638 (Lead, but only in 4 theaters)

well, he's more bankable than Robert Pattinson.

You and all your research. Make a guess already! ;D

 ;D thats what friday afternoons at the office are for!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: DrKimble on July 29, 2010, 02:00:57 AM
$16.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on July 29, 2010, 12:28:31 PM
17 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 30, 2010, 11:39:13 AM
Forgot to guess. Can I still get in? If so...

$18.9M

Let's just use this again for CSC
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 30, 2010, 04:00:00 PM
14.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 01, 2010, 04:28:32 PM
Hairspray Opening Weekend:  $27,476,745 in 3,121 theaters (Zac being a non-factor)
HSM3 Opening Weekend:  $42,030,184 in 3,626 theaters (Zac being kind of a factor)
17A Opening Weekend:  $23,722,310 in 3,255 theaters (Zac = lead)
Me & OW Opening Weekend:  $63,638 (Lead, but only in 4 theaters)

well, he's more bankable than Robert Pattinson.

*ahem*

Charlie St. Cloud   $12,136,000 (estimated)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 01, 2010, 07:20:59 PM
oh yeah Inception #1 baby...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 01, 2010, 10:11:30 PM
Hairspray Opening Weekend:  $27,476,745 in 3,121 theaters (Zac being a non-factor)
HSM3 Opening Weekend:  $42,030,184 in 3,626 theaters (Zac being kind of a factor)
17A Opening Weekend:  $23,722,310 in 3,255 theaters (Zac = lead)
Me & OW Opening Weekend:  $63,638 (Lead, but only in 4 theaters)

well, he's more bankable than Robert Pattinson.

*ahem*

Charlie St. Cloud   $12,136,000 (estimated)

Well Remember Me only managed $8,089,139 OW so I'm still right ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 02, 2010, 10:20:14 AM
What's on the menu this week? Step Up 3-D?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 02, 2010, 03:46:59 PM
final: $12,381,585 and managed to edge ahead of Cats & Dogs 2!

Options:

The Other Guys - 3,400+
Step Up 3-D - 2,200+
Middle Men - 200
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 02, 2010, 03:53:29 PM
The Other Guys, although I have never heard of it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 02, 2010, 04:28:57 PM
Its a Will Ferrell comedy; should make some good bank.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 02, 2010, 06:16:56 PM
Charlie St. Cloud - $12.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
¡Keith!     14.8     2.4
Darcy     9.8     2.6
DrKimble     16.8     4.4
michael x     17     4.6
1SO     17.9     5.5
matt tmw     18.5     6.1
NeutralGrey     18.5     6.1
FLYmeatwad     18.9     6.5
Beavermoose     19.7     7.3
Bill     23     10.6
smirnoff     24.5     12.1
Melvil     26.3     13.9
GothamCity151     27.6     15.2
Corndog     31.2     18.8
Sam     33     20.6
Dave     34.5     22.1



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
¡Keith!     8.73    
-
matt tmw     15.6    
-
NeutralGrey     17    
-
DrKimble     24.3    
-
michael x     26    
-
Beavermoose     38.2    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Bill     43    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     47.7    
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
smirnoff     49    
-
Dave     51    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Melvil     52.9    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
FLYmeatwad     60    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Darcy     61.8    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Corndog     69.4    
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Sam     82    
-
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 02, 2010, 06:18:28 PM
Keith - He must be stopped. :-*

I was kinda looking forward to doing Step Up 3D, but if people want The Other Guys we can do that. Someone tie break!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 02, 2010, 06:55:57 PM
Well done, ¡K!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 02, 2010, 07:58:54 PM
I thought I did well this week...and I still dropped  ???  ???  ???  >:(  >:(  >:(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on August 02, 2010, 08:37:33 PM
The only place for me is up now, so it couldn't go any worse.  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 02, 2010, 11:54:17 PM
Charlie St. Cloud - $12.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
¡Keith!     14.8     2.4
Darcy     9.8     2.6
DrKimble     16.8     4.4
michael x     17     4.6
1SO     17.9     5.5
matt tmw     18.5     6.1
NeutralGrey     18.5     6.1
FLYmeatwad     18.9     6.5
Beavermoose     22.4     10
Bill     23     10.6
smirnoff     24.5     12.1
Melvil     26.3     13.9
GothamCity151     27.6     15.2
Corndog     31.2     18.8
Sam     33     20.6
Dave     34.5     22.1



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
¡Keith!     8.73     
-
matt tmw     15.6     
-
NeutralGrey     17     
-
DrKimble     24.3     
-
michael x     26     
-
Beavermoose     40.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Bill     43     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     47.7     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
smirnoff     49     
-
Dave     51     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Melvil     52.9     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
FLYmeatwad     60     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Darcy     61.8     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Corndog     69.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Sam     82     
-

I edited my guess (http://www.filmspotting.net/forum/index.php?topic=7715.msg484950#msg484950) before the deadline, it should be a bit lower.

Not that it would make much difference competing against iKeith. :p
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 02, 2010, 11:56:38 PM
Hooray for me not being on the leader board.

For The Other Guys: $28 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 03, 2010, 03:59:38 AM
The only place for me is up now, so it couldn't go any worse.  ;D

It looks like you will beat me this time.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 03, 2010, 04:35:59 PM
I edited my guess (http://www.filmspotting.net/forum/index.php?topic=7715.msg484950#msg484950) before the deadline, it should be a bit lower.

Ah, didn't catch that. I pretty much track the guesses as they are made, so if you make a ninja edit I'll probably miss it. Just post that you're changing your guess. I'll make that correction before the next round.

Hooray for me not being on the leader board.

You've gotta participate for every week in the round (this round, six weeks) to be on the leaderboard, otherwise the scores don't mean much.

And officially:



Up Next:

(http://i37.tinypic.com/34488ww.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 03, 2010, 04:40:29 PM
The Other Guys - 24 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 03, 2010, 04:43:21 PM
Let's all just wait for Keith to make a guess and then guess around that number.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on August 03, 2010, 05:11:32 PM
The Other Guys: $33.3 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on August 03, 2010, 05:13:24 PM
35 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on August 03, 2010, 05:45:51 PM
The Other Guys: 38.5 million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 04, 2010, 12:03:06 AM
Let's all just wait for Keith to make a guess and then guess around that number.

He always guesses last.

Also,  :'(  :'(  :'( for no Step Up 3-D

I'll ponder my guess for a bit before putting a ring on it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 05, 2010, 09:27:09 AM
$  2  4  .  9  million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on August 05, 2010, 12:09:31 PM
34.2 for The Other Guys
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 05, 2010, 12:38:19 PM
Guess I'll low-ball this one: 18.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 05, 2010, 12:57:14 PM
The Other Guys: 24.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 05, 2010, 03:24:49 PM
The Other Guys: 23.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 05, 2010, 03:44:18 PM
29.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 05, 2010, 10:18:08 PM
22.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 05, 2010, 10:58:35 PM
$34.7M

Guess I'll low-ball this one: 18.9

For the record, that's about the opening gross of Land of the Lost, and I think the hype is a bit higher for this one.

Will is good for a solid $30 when he's doing an R, I think, so the PG-13 coupled with a fairly noticeable marketing scheme has me thinking this one will bring in extra.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 06, 2010, 03:53:50 PM
TOG: 38.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on August 06, 2010, 03:56:29 PM
35
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 06, 2010, 05:23:10 PM
35

You're hedging my guess, Sam  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 06, 2010, 07:32:46 PM
The Other Guys - $20.8m

will be beaten by $21m INCEPTION, yeah!!!!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 08, 2010, 12:34:06 PM
Est: $35,600,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 08, 2010, 02:12:22 PM
Est: $35,600,000

35

You're hedging my guess, Sam  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on August 08, 2010, 02:37:54 PM
35

You're hedging my guess, Sam  :P
Well, it worked. Not that it matters given my overall position.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on August 08, 2010, 02:39:39 PM
I guess I'll improve this week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 09, 2010, 01:36:34 AM
yeah i'm off well off.

what's for next week, will be very interesting, i think either way Scott Pilgrim will win.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 09, 2010, 08:31:48 AM
Options (fun!):

Eat Pray Love 2,800+
The Expendables 3,000+
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World 2,600+
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 09, 2010, 09:09:27 AM
Anyone up for the challenge of a triple play where we have to guess all 3?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 09, 2010, 09:22:55 AM
yeah i'm off well off.

what's for next week, will be very interesting, i think either way Scott Pilgrim will win.

Really? Scott Pilgrim is going to do so bad at the box office. If I'm picking a sleeper it would be Eat, Pray, Love.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 09, 2010, 03:50:40 PM
actual: $35,543,162

(Pilgrim will struggle with Inception's 5th week for 4th place.)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 09, 2010, 04:12:15 PM
The Other Guys - $35.6 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
'Noke     35     0.6
Sam     35     0.6
FLYmeatwad     34.7     0.9
NeutralGrey     34.2     1.4
Corndog     33.3     2.3
michael x     38.5     2.9
¡Keith!     38.9     3.3
smirnoff     29.9     5.7
GothamCity151     28     7.6
1SO     24.9     10.7
matt tmw     24.5     11.1
Bill     24     11.6
Dave     23.5     12.1
Beavermoose     22.1     13.5
Darcy     20.8     14.8
Melvil     18.9     16.7



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
¡Keith!     12.03     
-
NeutralGrey     18.4     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
matt tmw     26.7     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
michael x     28.9     
-
Beavermoose     51.7     
-
Bill     54.6     
-
smirnoff     54.7     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     58.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
FLYmeatwad     60.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Dave     63.1     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Melvil     69.6     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Corndog     71.7     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Darcy     76.6     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Sam     82.6     
-



To conclude this round:

(http://i33.tinypic.com/ay54js.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on August 09, 2010, 04:33:08 PM
$19.4Mil

That last one had to be the best I've ever done.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on August 09, 2010, 05:30:32 PM
Scott Pilgrim -- 21.6 million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 09, 2010, 05:44:20 PM
Scott Pilgrim - 12 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 09, 2010, 07:25:12 PM
Scott Pilgrim $17.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 10, 2010, 03:48:42 AM
20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 10, 2010, 08:07:37 AM
Kick-ass made about 20M I don't know is SP can do better.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 12, 2010, 11:42:33 PM
Easily Edgar Wright's largest opening, so his fans will likely be there. Cera, especially when paired with marketing and/or a competent director, can bring in a 15 minimum. Year One did around 20. Superbad did big bucks. Scott Pilgrim will probably fall somewhere in between. The mind tells me to go around 17 but I have faith that the film going public will make the right choice...

Scott Pilgrim - $21.7 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 12, 2010, 11:45:44 PM
Scott Pilgrim: M$26.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 12, 2010, 11:49:46 PM
Scott Pilgrim: 14
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on August 13, 2010, 12:08:06 AM
23.6 for Scott Pilgrim
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 13, 2010, 01:14:29 AM
12.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 13, 2010, 01:16:50 AM
16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 13, 2010, 02:26:31 AM
Scott Pilgrim - $24.8m

will come 2nd on the weekend i reckon, but that to, the stallone or roberts crowd?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 13, 2010, 09:58:04 AM
If only it was the right Roberts.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 13, 2010, 10:39:33 AM
The Fandango 5 - This week's hottest tickets
1 Eat Pray Love
2 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
3 The Expendables
4 Inception
5 The Other Guys


Buh?!?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 13, 2010, 10:45:23 AM
If only it was the right Roberts.

Yeah, we need more Eric Roberts. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 13, 2010, 10:48:57 AM
The Fandango 5 - This week's hottest tickets
1 Eat Pray Love
2 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
3 The Expendables
4 Inception
5 The Other Guys


Buh?!?

That how I predicted things would shake out this weekend. The targeted demo for Eat, Pray, Love has been left out for a long time this summer, you think they would latch on to a film like this one. Hoping the PG-13 helps Scott and hurts Expendables. Would love to see Scott finish first, but I just hope it can finish higher than Expendables.

If only it was the right Roberts.

Yeah, we need more Eric Roberts. ;)

I believe he spawned the right Roberts, so part of that is correct  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 13, 2010, 11:22:20 AM
Are Eric Roberts and Julia Robert related?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 13, 2010, 11:23:20 AM
Are Eric Roberts and Julia Robert related?

brother/sister
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 13, 2010, 11:31:46 AM
Gonna go 16.8 for Scotty P (hope it does better).  Really unsure how the full weekend's gonna shake out, thinking low 30s for Expendables, almost 30's for EPL but they could vary greatly.

Might update this if I get a chance - dunno if the plane will have wifi.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 13, 2010, 02:48:16 PM
Scott Pilgrim 29.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 13, 2010, 03:08:58 PM
Scott Pilgrim 29.3

I hope this is the case.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 15, 2010, 03:36:22 AM
Friday est: $4,540,000 :-\
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 15, 2010, 11:21:31 AM
Friday est: $4,540,000 :-\

Yeah, seems the public is too afraid to enjoy quality cinema.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 15, 2010, 11:26:37 AM
It seems as though the weekend estimate is $10,525,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 15, 2010, 11:46:06 AM
It seems as though the weekend estimate is $10,525,000

:(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 15, 2010, 12:02:07 PM
It seems as though the weekend estimate is $10,525,000

:(

I think this is about right.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 15, 2010, 01:05:07 PM
Well that's disappointing.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 15, 2010, 01:30:17 PM
Well that's disappointing.

mos def, SP joins Snakes on a Plane and Death Proof on the hype train that never came.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 15, 2010, 01:34:05 PM
#5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 15, 2010, 06:32:38 PM
Well that's disappointing.

Not really. A lot of people felt the movie was less than good, it hasn't gotten great word of mouth, Cera hasn't proven to be any sort of money maker and Wright's name is still unknown. All of those combine to put SP about where it was fated to go.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 15, 2010, 07:08:09 PM
I'm not disappointed? That's a relief!

By the way, I'll be out of town on Monday, so I'll have to do the full update when I get back.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 15, 2010, 07:21:57 PM
What's next week's film? Piranha 3-D?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Holly Harry on August 15, 2010, 07:27:13 PM
Well that's disappointing.

Not really. A lot of people felt the movie was less than good, it hasn't gotten great word of mouth, Cera hasn't proven to be any sort of money maker and Wright's name is still unknown. All of those combine to put SP about where it was fated to go.

It's a niche film. It will have a long shelf life on home video/midnight screenings in the future, I think.

The crowd I saw it with seemed to really dig it. I think it can find it's audience.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 15, 2010, 08:28:52 PM
I'm not disappointed? That's a relief!


Wasn't commenting on your own disappointment, but that the film really isn't a disappointment in general as it is landing right where it was always going to land.

Well that's disappointing.

Not really. A lot of people felt the movie was less than good, it hasn't gotten great word of mouth, Cera hasn't proven to be any sort of money maker and Wright's name is still unknown. All of those combine to put SP about where it was fated to go.

It's a niche film. It will have a long shelf life on home video/midnight screenings in the future, I think.

The crowd I saw it with seemed to really dig it. I think it can find it's audience.

I can see this, maybe, but I think movies have a harder time finding cult status on DVD/online these days, so we'll see.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 16, 2010, 10:28:35 PM
Actuals BOM:
1      N      The Expendables      LGF      $34,825,135      -      3,270      -      $10,650      $34,825,135      -      1
2      N      Eat Pray Love      Sony      $23,104,523      -      3,082      -      $7,497      $23,104,523      $60      1
3      1      The Other Guys      Sony      $17,408,501      -51.0%      3,651      -      $4,768      $69,951,822      $100      2
4      2      Inception      WB      $11,285,051      -39.0%      3,120      -298      $3,617      $248,469,482      $160      5
5      N      Scott Pilgrim vs. the World      Uni.      $10,609,795      -      2,818      -      $3,765      $10,609,795      $60      1

(Pilgrim will struggle with Inception's 5th week for 4th place.)

Heh, shoulda listened to myself, stupid net buzz.  Oh well - the people that got it loved it and will continue to carry its flag and I'm sure the flick will only build in cult stature in time like a Donnie Darko or a Fight Club.

Crazy ass awful late August weekend coming up:

Vampires Suck - 2900 + (Wednesday open)
Nanny McPhee - 2600 +
Piranha 3D - 2500
Lottery Ticket - 1900 +
Switch - 1700
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 16, 2010, 10:46:48 PM
Heh, shoulda listened to myself, stupid net buzz. 
This.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 17, 2010, 10:09:42 AM
Heh, shoulda listened to myself, stupid net buzz. 
This.

But even Kick-ass made 20Mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 17, 2010, 02:34:54 PM
I'm not home and won't have a chance to run the numbers until tomorrow. Sorry about that.

In the meantime, I'm very underwhelmed with the choices for this weekend. How about we try 1SO's triple play idea while we're in between rounds?

(http://i36.tinypic.com/2v1neo1.jpg)(http://i33.tinypic.com/2dgw1gx.jpg)(http://i33.tinypic.com/2mnkc3l.jpg)

Guess all three!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 17, 2010, 02:36:51 PM
Vampires Suck - $5.5 million
Nanny McPhee - $10 million
Piranha - $16.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on August 17, 2010, 02:42:37 PM
I might have to sit this week out.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 17, 2010, 02:43:59 PM
Heh, shoulda listened to myself, stupid net buzz. 
This.

But even Kick-ass made 20Mil.

which is slightly below where it was tracking - same with Scotty P, which was tracking an 11 open.  Some films you can tell will break out due to the buzz and it really seemed like there was enough out there to get a larger audience interested in this one.  I blame the twitter echo chamber.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 17, 2010, 03:23:35 PM
Before trying to guess the box-office of a kids movie, one question: Is it school holidays?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 17, 2010, 03:36:22 PM
no, though many still are not back from summer break yet.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 18, 2010, 03:29:46 AM
Thanks iKeith

Vampires Suck - $4 million
Nanny McPhee - $13 million
Piranha - $9 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 18, 2010, 08:43:20 AM
Piranha - $15.5 million
Nanny McPhee - $12 million
Vampires Suck - $6.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 18, 2010, 09:28:11 AM
15 Million across the board.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 18, 2010, 09:40:40 AM
Vampires Suck - 4 Mil
Nanny McPhee - 13 Mil
Piranha - 6 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 18, 2010, 10:10:52 AM
Vampires Suck - $1.9M
Nanny - $15.7M
Now for the wildcard...

Similar films are likely The Final Destination and My Bloody Valentine, both of which cashed in pretty well opening weekend, though both had kind of a legacy to work with. Piranha is a relatively unknown quantity for me. But I'm sure some audience will not run, just swim, to see Piranha.

Piranha 3-D - $20.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 18, 2010, 05:20:41 PM
Last weekend was the first time since October 2009 that no 3D films appeared in the top 5.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Abomination on August 18, 2010, 11:47:47 PM
Nanny McPhee: 14.7
Pirhana 3D: 9.7
Vampires Suck: 4.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on August 19, 2010, 02:56:17 PM
Vampires Suck: 14.8 mil
Piranha 3D: 11.1 mil
Nanny McPhee: 17 mil

But I suppose it doesn't really matter which number goes with which movie.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 19, 2010, 03:07:51 PM
Vampires Suck: 18.5
Piranha 3D: 15
Nanny McPhee Returns: 12.5

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 19, 2010, 05:22:29 PM
Piranha 3D: 19.5
Vampires Suck: 11.5
Nanny McPhee Returns: 10.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2010, 08:54:42 AM
Vanpires Suck - Wed: $4,016,858
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 20, 2010, 09:12:51 AM
If Vampires Suck came out on wednesday are we guessing its weekend gross or its total gross by sunday?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2010, 09:38:16 AM
If Vampires Suck came out on wednesday are we guessing its weekend gross or its total gross by sunday?

I believe we're just guessing the 3-day weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 20, 2010, 09:43:55 AM
That's what I would guess. I should have went higher on my guess for this film, evidently. Thought, given the success of Meet the Spartans, Superhero Movie, and Dance Flick that this film would bomb. I also thought people would be tired of 'Twilight sucks, let's make fun of it for 90 minutes so that we can feel better than other people' by now, but I am apparently wrong in that assumption as well. Go Piranha!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2010, 01:09:34 PM
RT Scores:

82%      Piranha 3-D
82%      Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Crap, P3 is gonna bomb (coincidentally it also looks to be the best film out this weekend)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2010, 02:30:21 PM
Vanpires Suck - Wed: $4,016,858


Thu: $2,347,044 -41.6%
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2010, 04:01:23 PM
Vampires Suck - 14.25

Nanny McPhee Returns - 9.93

Piranha 3D - 10.47
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 20, 2010, 07:18:48 PM
Pirahna 3D - $17m
Vampires Suck - $13m
Nanny McPhee Returns - $12m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 20, 2010, 07:22:30 PM
I think I may be going to see it tomorrow.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 21, 2010, 02:45:06 AM
Finkester's typically wild early numbers:

1. Vampires Suck (Fox) NEW [3,233 Runs]
Friday $5M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M, Estimated Cume $21M.

2. The Expendables(Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,270 Runs]
Friday $4.8M (-64%), Estimated Weekend $14.5M, Estimated Cume $62.7M

3. Lottery Ticket (Warner Bros) NEW [1,973 Runs]
Friday $3.7M, Estimated Weekend $11M

4. Eat Pray Love (Sony) Week 2 [3,082 Runs]
Friday $3.6M (-57%), Estimated Weekend $11.2M, Estimated Cume $32M

5. Piranha 3D(Dimension/Weinstein Co) NEW [2,470 Runs]
Friday $3.6M, Estimated Weekend $10M

6. Nanny McPhee Returns (Working Title/Universal) NEW [2,784 Runs]
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $9M

7. The Other Guys (Sony) Week 3 [3,472 Runs]
Friday $2.9M  (-47%), Estimated Weekend $9.5M, Estimated Cume $87.5M

8. The Switch (Miramax) NEW [2,012 Runs]
Friday $2.8M, Estimated Weekend $8M

9. Inception (Warner Bros) Week 6 [2,401 Runs]
Friday $2.1M (-37%), Estimated Weekend $7.0M, Estimated Cume $261.2M

10. Scott Pilgrim vs The World (Universal) Week 2 [2,820 Runs]
Friday $1.5M (-65%), Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $20.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 22, 2010, 03:07:31 PM
Official Est:

BOM
1      1      The Expendables        $16,500,000     
2      N      Vampires Suck           $12,200,000     
3      2      Eat Pray Love            $12,000,000     
4      N      Lottery Ticket            $11,125,000           
5      3      The Other Guys          $10,100,000     
6      N      Piranha 3D                 $10,035,000     
7      N      Nanny McPhee Returns $8,310,000 
8      N      The Switch                $8,100,000     
9      4      Inception                   $7,655,000     
10     5      Scott Pilgrim              $5,034,000     
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 22, 2010, 06:56:21 PM
Rough week for the good guys.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 23, 2010, 10:33:29 AM
Are we picking Avatar this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 23, 2010, 10:41:27 AM
heh:

Avatar: Special Edition 700+
The Last Exorcism 2,700
Takers 2,000


TLE would probably make the most sense.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 23, 2010, 10:42:59 AM
Avatar IMAX 3-D and Animal Kingdom for FLY this weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 23, 2010, 08:51:59 PM
Better late than never...



Scott Pilgrim vs. the World - $10.6 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Bill     12     1.4
1SO     12.7     2.1
matt tmw     14     3.4
Melvil     16.5     5.9
¡Keith!     16.8     6.2
GothamCity151     17.7     7.1
Corndog     19.4     8.8
Dave     20     9.4
michael x     21.6     11
FLYmeatwad     21.7     11.1
NeutralGrey     23.6     13
Darcy     24.8     14.2
Beavermoose     26.4     15.8
smirnoff     29.3     18.7



Final Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
¡Keith!     18.23     
-
matt tmw     30.1     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
NeutralGrey     31.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
michael x     39.9     
-
Bill     56     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     60.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Beavermoose     67.5     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
FLYmeatwad     72     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Dave     72.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
smirnoff     73.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Melvil     75.5     
-
Corndog     80.5     
-
Darcy     90.8     
-



Well done, Keith! ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 23, 2010, 09:24:29 PM
Vampires Suck - $12.2 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Beavermoose     11.5     0.7
Darcy     13     0.8
Keith     14.25     2.05
Michael x     14.8     2.6
smirnoff     15     2.8
1SO     6.7     5.5
matt tmw     18.5     6.3
GothamCity151     5.5     6.7
NeutralGrey     4.2     8
Dave     4     8.2
Bill     4     8.2
FLYmeatwad     1.9     10.3



Nanny McPhee Returns - $8.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Keith     9.93     1.53
GothamCity151     10     1.6
Beavermoose     10.5     2.1
Darcy     12     3.6
1SO     12     3.6
matt tmw     12.5     4.1
Dave     13     4.6
Bill     13     4.6
NeutralGrey     14.7     6.3
smirnoff     15     6.6
FLYmeatwad     15.7     7.3
Michael x     17     8.6



Pirhana 3D - $10.1 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Keith     10.47     0.37
NeutralGrey     9.7     0.4
Michael x     11.1     1
Dave     9     1.1
Bill     6     4.1
matt tmw     15     4.9
smirnoff     15     4.9
1SO     15.5     5.4
GothamCity151     16.7     6.6
Darcy     17     6.9
Beavermoose     19.5     9.4
FLYmeatwad     20.4     10.3



Totals

Player     Total Score
Keith     3.95
Darcy     11.3
Beavermoose     12.2
Michael x     12.2
Dave     13.9
smirnoff     14.3
1SO     14.5
NeutralGrey     14.7
GothamCity151     14.9
matt tmw     15.3
Bill     16.9
FLYmeatwad     27.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 23, 2010, 09:28:20 PM
New Round! Up First:

(http://i33.tinypic.com/2dh8cw1.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 23, 2010, 09:39:08 PM
Sweet I got a #1 position! :) 0.7 off is that like a new record or something. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on August 23, 2010, 11:18:41 PM
6.8 million

EDIT: O wait, I have to do this: 6.66 million.  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 23, 2010, 11:21:57 PM
Ouch, that last weekend killed me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on August 23, 2010, 11:37:54 PM
More like $26.66M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 24, 2010, 07:44:03 AM
The Last Exorcism - 7 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 24, 2010, 09:07:39 AM
$ 1 3 . 7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on August 24, 2010, 03:36:21 PM
ummm.... 10.8 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 25, 2010, 03:57:10 AM
12M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on August 25, 2010, 06:41:29 AM
$24.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 25, 2010, 11:50:33 AM
28.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on August 25, 2010, 09:08:11 PM
The last Exorcism - $8.3m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 26, 2010, 08:33:59 AM
Opening weekends for late August Horrors connected to established franchises...

Halloween: $26.3
Halloween 2: $16.3
Exorcist: The Beginning: $18.0
The Exorcism of Emily Rose (Technically a September release): $30.0

Doubt it tops 30, but the onslaught of The Last Exorcist ads and recent history tells me it should have no problem outperforming all the films released last week.

The Last Exorcism - $21.666 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on August 26, 2010, 12:50:02 PM
18.2 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on August 27, 2010, 10:59:27 AM
The Last Exorcism: 12.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 27, 2010, 04:01:20 PM
TLE: 22.59
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 27, 2010, 07:19:35 PM
The Last Exorcism: 18
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 27, 2010, 07:38:05 PM
My guess is in line with iKeith!'s, so I feel confident.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 28, 2010, 12:57:54 AM
Finke's early est:

1. The Last Exorcism (Lionsgate) NEW [2,874 Theaters]
Friday $8.5M, Estimated Weekend $23.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 28, 2010, 09:29:11 AM
Knew I should have went a little higher.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 29, 2010, 12:10:45 PM
I'm getting the estimate looking to be somewhere around $21,300,000.

Good week for the Good Guys anyhow.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 31, 2010, 10:31:02 AM
Final number: $20,366,613

Bad WOM spread crazy quick on this one.  The internal multiplier for the weekend was only 2.17.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 02, 2010, 01:25:06 PM
The Last Exorcism - $20.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
FLYmeatwad     21.66     1.26
Keith     22.59     2.19
michael x     18.2     2.2
matt tmw     18     2.4
GothamCity151     24.8     4.4
Beavermoose     26.66     6.26
1SO     13.7     6.7
Melvil     12.8     7.6
smirnoff     28.2     7.8
Dave     12     8.4
Noke     10.8     9.6
Darcy     8.3     12.1
Bill     7     13.4
Sam     6.66     13.74



Up Next:

(http://i53.tinypic.com/14lu77q.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 02, 2010, 01:25:42 PM
Sorry for the short notice on this one. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 02, 2010, 01:26:39 PM
This is a 4 Day weekend also.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on September 02, 2010, 01:38:14 PM
18.6 million for 3-Day
24.3 million for 4-Day
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on September 02, 2010, 01:45:24 PM
I'm gonna be ambitions and go 30 mill.

This is a 4 Day weekend also.
You too? Awesome. We should totally inteweb hang out.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 02, 2010, 01:50:36 PM
40 Mil!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on September 02, 2010, 01:56:43 PM
4030 Mil!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 02, 2010, 01:58:09 PM
$23.45 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 02, 2010, 02:15:49 PM
30M for a 4 day, 25M for the 3 day
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on September 02, 2010, 03:29:36 PM
Machete - 26Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 02, 2010, 04:26:53 PM
Machete: 16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 02, 2010, 08:19:47 PM
When is this interweb hangout happening?

Also, I'll try and guess tonight or tomorrow. I can't imagine this film doing very well. It would be not good if it did better than Grindhouse, probably. ANd Scott Pilgrim. Can't wait to see it though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 02, 2010, 08:21:29 PM
Machete:

3-Day: $24.2 million
4-Day: $31.6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 02, 2010, 10:27:48 PM
These predictions for Machete astound me. Doubt this one has any more wide appeal than Scotty P. Will probs do better than Grindhouse because it's not Easter, but if people want action they are clearly just going to see that film with all the big stars...not the one with Danny Trejo that is spouting out some Anti-America message.

3 Day - $14.1 M
4 Day - $19.6 M

And even that is probably shooting way too high. Hope to be proven wrong though, especially if Machete is good.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on September 03, 2010, 01:27:11 AM
3 day - 15.2
4 day - 18.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on September 03, 2010, 02:28:44 AM

MACHETE


3 Day - $17.2m
4 Day - $20.9m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 03, 2010, 04:00:13 PM
Machete -

4-Day = 18.15
3-Day = 14.97
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 03, 2010, 04:03:21 PM
Should we all have both a 4 day and 3 day prediction?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 03, 2010, 04:09:54 PM
I'm mostly in line with iKeith! again, so I feel confident.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 03, 2010, 05:37:33 PM
My prediction is the same either way. ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 05, 2010, 07:07:36 PM
3-day estimate for Machete: $11,300,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 05, 2010, 08:48:32 PM
Knew I was overshooting with 14. Don't see how anyone expected it to make any sort of money given how poorly Grindhouse did upon its release, the relative newness of The Expendables, and the poor showing by Scotty P, another much buzzed about online, hyper stylized action film easily capable of appealing to a mass audience but only latched onto by a niche.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on September 06, 2010, 05:42:34 AM
i could'nt be worst at this game, though i'm okay on this one, which i'd recommend you get on for next summer.

http://www.rowthree.com/2010/04/13/mamo-164-we-bet-it-all-on-the-a-team/ (http://www.rowthree.com/2010/04/13/mamo-164-we-bet-it-all-on-the-a-team/)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 07, 2010, 10:28:34 AM
4-day est; 14m.

I hate net-buzz flicks (just kidding - i tend to love them)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 07, 2010, 03:17:20 PM
Decent week for the Good Guys. Helped along by a ton of inexplicable guesses.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 07, 2010, 05:46:58 PM
Man... Machete was the movie to see this weekend. What were people doing?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 07, 2010, 05:53:48 PM
seeing The American! (There will be no end to the snipy headlines that will generate)

1 The American $16,662,333
2 Machete $14,102,888
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 07, 2010, 06:42:50 PM
Man... Machete was the movie to see this weekend. What were people doing?

I have no idea.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 07, 2010, 09:07:28 PM
Machete - $11.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
FLYmeatwad     14.1     2.7
Keith     14.97     3.57
michael x     15.2     3.8
matt tmw     16.5     5.1
Darcy     17.2     5.8
1SO     18.6     7.2
Beavermoose     23.45     12.05
GothamCity151     24.2     12.8
Dave     25     13.6
Bill     26     14.6
Noke     30     18.6
Sam     30     18.6
smirnoff     40     28.6



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
FLYmeatwad     3.96     
-
Keith     5.76     
-
michael x     6     
-
matt tmw     7.5     
-
1SO     13.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
GothamCity151     17.2     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Darcy     17.9     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Beavermoose     18.31     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Dave     22     
-
Bill     28     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Noke     28.2     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Sam     32.34     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
smirnoff     36.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Up Next:

(http://i55.tinypic.com/syo2h4.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 07, 2010, 09:08:51 PM
Rough week, that appears to be the only movie getting a release on more than 20 screens.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 07, 2010, 09:10:16 PM
$13.6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 07, 2010, 09:23:00 PM
Mover and shakers, baby! FLY owns this game.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on September 07, 2010, 10:12:14 PM
Resident Evil: Afterlife

16 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on September 07, 2010, 10:35:17 PM
1SO     13.9     

That's my guess for RE3D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 08, 2010, 01:08:07 AM
Keith isn't winning!  :o
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 08, 2010, 01:42:28 AM
Keith isn't winning!  :o

FLY's killin' it! there are still several weeks to go.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 08, 2010, 04:05:23 AM
Man... Machete was the movie to see this weekend. What were people doing?

Other things apparently
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 08, 2010, 07:34:05 AM
14.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 08, 2010, 08:09:30 AM
13.5M for RE3D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 08, 2010, 02:17:41 PM
25 Mill$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on September 08, 2010, 02:39:19 PM
9 Mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 10, 2010, 09:05:01 AM
You know what, let's say $27.9 M for Resident Evil: Afterlife (3-D!)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 10, 2010, 11:11:36 AM
Resident Evil: Afterlife: 23.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 10, 2010, 01:12:48 PM
Resident Evil: Afterlife: 23.5

That's the winner.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on September 10, 2010, 04:30:26 PM
Resident Evil - 22 m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 10, 2010, 06:13:38 PM
bit late, flying today - 30.18
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on September 10, 2010, 09:02:35 PM
19.1m for that game... movie.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 10, 2010, 09:12:59 PM
I'm close to iKeith!'s guess again, which always inspires confidence.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 11, 2010, 02:06:35 PM
Looks like a projected $11M Friday for Resident Evil: Afterlife (3-D). Looks like it is set to finish somewhere around $27M, so the Good Guys seem to be in good shape once again.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 11, 2010, 08:14:14 PM
Then it looks like Friday's total has just about matched my weekend guess. The bottom half seems to be my destiny.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 12, 2010, 01:02:21 PM
You know what, let's say $27.9 M for Resident Evil: Afterlife (3-D!)

est: $27,700,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 12, 2010, 01:04:42 PM
You know what, let's say $27.9 M for Resident Evil: Afterlife (3-D!)

est: $27,700,000

Bada Bing!

I don't know what this week's film is, but whatever it is I anticipate struggling. Have no idea how Devil or Alpha and Omega will do at the Box Office, or even what past results to look at to help me out.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on September 13, 2010, 10:23:07 AM
I give up on this game.  :P

Besides, Keith! clearly cheats.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 13, 2010, 10:54:13 AM
I give up on this game.  :P

Besides, Keith! clearly cheats.

wait what?  i'm not even winning! seems I suck at cheating.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on September 13, 2010, 10:59:16 AM
Cheaters never win.

I just have no good sense as to what a movie would make, unlike some of you and keith seems to have the most knowledge of it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 13, 2010, 11:46:35 AM
Well done, FLY.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 13, 2010, 04:11:43 PM
Resident Evil: Afterlife - $26.7 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
FLYmeatwad     27.9     1.2
Beavermoose     25     1.7
matt tmw     23.5     3.2
Keith     30.18     3.48
michael x     22     4.7
Darcy     19.1     7.6
Bill     16     10.7
smirnoff     14.2     12.5
1SO     13.9     12.8
GothamCity151     13.6     13.1
Dave     13.5     13.2
Noke     9     17.7



Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
FLYmeatwad     5.16     
-
Keith     9.24     
-
matt tmw     10.7     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
michael x     10.7     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Beavermoose     20.01     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Darcy     25.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     26.7     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
GothamCity151     30.3     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Dave     35.2     
-
Bill     38.7     
-
Noke     45.9     
-
smirnoff     48.9     
-



Up Next:

(http://i53.tinypic.com/xglf8l.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 13, 2010, 04:16:31 PM
Well done, FLY.

Thank you sir.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 13, 2010, 04:20:11 PM
Kudos to Beavermoose too. Less than 2 m off and you still didn't win the week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 13, 2010, 06:50:01 PM
13.7 million for Devil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 13, 2010, 09:43:40 PM
Did the cumulative scores reset? Who won last time? Keith?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 13, 2010, 09:59:20 PM
Did the cumulative scores reset? Who won last time? Keith?

Yep, here's the final scoreboard from the last round (http://www.filmspotting.net/forum/index.php?topic=7715.msg497377#msg497377). Devil is the third week of the current round.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 13, 2010, 11:57:19 PM
Kudos to Beavermoose too. Less than 2 m off and you still didn't win the week.

Thanks. :)
FLY's on a roll though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 14, 2010, 03:42:30 AM
15.7M for Devil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on September 14, 2010, 08:44:37 AM
Devil - 10 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 14, 2010, 09:34:22 AM
Hard to gauge Devil, it has M. Night's name on it. Even Lady in the Water made 18 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 14, 2010, 09:40:05 AM
12.8M Devil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 14, 2010, 06:35:32 PM
Hard to gauge Devil, it has M. Night's name on it. Even Lady in the Water made 18 mill.

Yeah, but after Airbender, I think people are done. And there are groans every time the trailer comes up from the audience.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on September 14, 2010, 06:46:23 PM
14.9 m for Devil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 15, 2010, 12:51:51 AM
Another one of these.
16.66m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 15, 2010, 06:49:47 AM
Another one of these.
16.66m

:D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 15, 2010, 10:53:42 AM
Devil: 13.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 15, 2010, 05:30:55 PM
Another one of these.
16.66m

This guess is good. I shall ponder it for a day or so. Hard to think it will do any less than $16, though Jenny's Body bombed a year ago this weekend, and I guess that film is kind of comparable to this one. Maybe some RE horror hang over too, but I don't think that will stop this one too much. Hoping that Easy A cleans up. Also deciding if I should add The Town to the What Should I Watch thing (tell me, iKeith!).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 16, 2010, 07:51:18 PM
I will contradict myself. Also, go against my better judgment and say that The Town will draw away more viewers from Devil, because it seems to be getting some good reviews and if the R crowd is on the edge The Town may be appealing. But this also contradicts my suspicion that The Town will make no money because I have no idea what it is, and have seen no commercials for the film. I actually think with the PG-13 thing that more people will be drawn away to see Easy A (it's this year's Mean Girls, probably, except hopefully good), but who knows. So, let's not contradict me and take a needlessly stupid risk (time to catch up, iKeith!!)

Devil - $17.5M

It will probably finish somewhere around 14, but I think the M Night name will still bring the haters out in droves, even if he is not directing. And is Emma Stone really that big of a box office draw? I doubt it, but I hope so. Seems like a toss up between this and Easy A for what makes 12-14 and what makes 18-25. I don't know. I knew I would hate this week. Bring back the 3-D sequels!

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on September 17, 2010, 12:20:35 AM
$14.5 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 17, 2010, 02:34:46 PM
$14.5 million

Likely the correct guess, unless iKeith! comes in a little lower.

Seems, based on the fact that one kid in my middle school today said him and some other dude are going to see Easy A, that movie with the girl from Superbad, this weekend. Cross gender appeal! Go Emma (Stone)!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 17, 2010, 04:05:21 PM
$14.8m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on September 17, 2010, 05:18:29 PM
$14.8m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 18, 2010, 02:11:39 AM
Finke says:

1. The Town (Warner Bros) NEW [2,861 Theaters]
Friday $8.5M, Estimated Weekend $25M

2. Easy A (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,856 Theaters]
Friday $7M, Estimated Weekend $18M

3. Devil (Universal) NEW [2,809 Theaters]
Friday $5M, Estimated Weekend $12.5M)

(OOF!)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 18, 2010, 11:45:18 AM
It baffles me that The Town is doing so well. Despite watching a lot of Disney I also watch a good number of other television stations (ESPN, Spike, Food, [adultswim]/Cartoon Network, HGTV, G4, etc) and I really cannot recall seeing many, if any, ads for that film. Am I just missing the commercials or is the success happening because of the Affleck name? Guess I'll be sure to check it out at some point, at the very least on DVD.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 18, 2010, 11:50:32 AM
It baffles me that The Town is doing so well. Despite watching a lot of Disney I also watch a good number of other television stations (ESPN, Spike, Food, [adultswim]/Cartoon Network, HGTV, G4, etc) and I really cannot recall seeing many, if any, ads for that film. Am I just missing the commercials or is the success happening because of the Affleck name? Guess I'll be sure to check it out at some point, at the very least on DVD.

Before every film, along with the horrendous Devil, you see the horrendous trailer for this one, plus on ESPN a lot.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 18, 2010, 11:58:51 AM
It baffles me that The Town is doing so well. Despite watching a lot of Disney I also watch a good number of other television stations (ESPN, Spike, Food, [adultswim]/Cartoon Network, HGTV, G4, etc) and I really cannot recall seeing many, if any, ads for that film. Am I just missing the commercials or is the success happening because of the Affleck name? Guess I'll be sure to check it out at some point, at the very least on DVD.

Before every film, along with the horrendous Devil, you see the horrendous trailer for this one, plus on ESPN a lot.

Guess I have been going to the wrong films. Really only been to the theater for Machete, Pilgrim, and Animal Kingdom, and maybe one more. I've seen the Devil trailer a ton before films, but not seen one for The Town once. Also, suppose I have been missing it on ESPN. Who knows, bad timing I suppose.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on September 18, 2010, 08:43:26 PM
The Town adverts are on ESPN and Comedy Central nonstop. Also maybe the news channels.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 19, 2010, 08:06:16 PM
Weekend Est: Devil $12,584,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 20, 2010, 09:20:31 PM
Devil - $12.3 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
smirnoff     12.8     0.5
matt tmw     13.5     1.2
GothamCity151     13.7     1.4
1SO     14.5     2.2
Bill     10     2.3
Keith     14.8     2.5
Noke     14.8     2.5
michael x     14.9     2.6
Dave     15.7     3.4
Beavermoose     16.66     4.36
FLYmeatwad     17.5     5.2


Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
FLYmeatwad     10.36     
-
Keith     11.74     
-
matt tmw     11.9     
-
michael x     13.3     
-
Beavermoose     24.37     
-
1SO     28.9     
-
GothamCity151     31.7     
-
Dave     38.6     
-
Bill     41     
-
Noke     48.4     
-
smirnoff     49.4     
-



Up Next:

(http://i52.tinypic.com/2btit4.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on September 20, 2010, 09:21:11 PM
Wall Street - 16 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on September 20, 2010, 09:21:42 PM
Weird week. Despite his last-place showing, FLY retains the front spot on the leaderboard, while smirnoff's impressive first-place guess didn't get him out of last place. Crazy world!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 20, 2010, 09:40:54 PM
Wall Street 2 - $21 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 21, 2010, 01:33:27 AM
Well done, smirnoff.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on September 21, 2010, 08:18:14 PM
Wall Street II - 23.7 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 21, 2010, 08:45:06 PM
24 mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on September 22, 2010, 08:36:52 AM
Well done, smirnoff.

:) Gotta get lucky sometime.

WS2 = 32.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on September 22, 2010, 03:19:05 PM
The Devils was one very close round, we all got close, yay us  ;D

Wall Street 2 - 19.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 23, 2010, 12:42:05 PM
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps: 23.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on September 23, 2010, 01:06:08 PM
2 6 . 7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on September 23, 2010, 04:04:44 PM
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps: 23.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 24, 2010, 01:04:36 PM
$26.4 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 24, 2010, 02:26:16 PM
29.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on September 24, 2010, 08:23:35 PM
29.8

Going big. I like this pick.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on September 25, 2010, 12:53:22 PM
Finke's weigh in:

1. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox) NEW [3,565 Runs]
Friday $8M, Estimated Weekend $22.5M

not feeling so hot :'(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 26, 2010, 01:54:41 PM
Weekend Estimate - $19 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on September 26, 2010, 08:32:56 PM
ouch
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on September 26, 2010, 09:09:57 PM
ouch

not too bad for me though
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on September 30, 2010, 02:14:02 PM
What's up for this weekend?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on October 01, 2010, 11:01:59 AM
Social Network, right?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 01, 2010, 01:24:11 PM
32.5M for SN
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 01, 2010, 02:57:07 PM
The Social Network: 26
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 01, 2010, 03:26:50 PM
12M for SN
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 01, 2010, 03:27:29 PM
The Social Network: 26
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on October 01, 2010, 03:54:54 PM
3 1 . 2 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on October 01, 2010, 04:06:28 PM
The Social Network - 37 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 01, 2010, 04:40:09 PM
The Social Network: $28 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: michael x on October 01, 2010, 06:20:56 PM
Social Network: 30.5m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 01, 2010, 08:44:42 PM
If it's not too late...

The Social Network - $27.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 01, 2010, 10:06:45 PM
30mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 01, 2010, 10:44:10 PM
Sorry for dropping the ball on this. I've barely been home at all this week. :-\ I'll catch up Monday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 02, 2010, 10:28:33 AM
sorry, can I use this as my submission?

(http://i53.tinypic.com/20uv828.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 03, 2010, 01:10:10 PM
Est:

1 N THE SOCIAL NETWORK Sony $23,000,000 - 2,771 - $8,300
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 03, 2010, 01:42:21 PM
Yeah, figured I was too high. Still, good first showing.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 04, 2010, 10:09:06 PM
Weekend total:

$22.4 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 04, 2010, 11:27:50 PM
Wall Street 2 - $19 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Dave     19.6     0.6
GothamCity151     21     2
Bill     16     3
matt tmw     23.5     4.5
Noke     23.5     4.5
michael x     23.7     4.7
Beavermoose     24     5
FLYmeatwad     26.4     7.4
1SO     26.7     7.7
Keith     29.8     10.8
smirnoff     32.7     13.7



The Social Network - $22.4 Million

Player     Guess     Difference
Keith     24     1.6
matt tmw     26     3.6
Noke     26     3.6
FLYmeatwad     27.6     5.2
GothamCity151     28     5.6
Beavermoose     30     7.6
michael x     30.5     8.1
1SO     31.2     8.8
smirnoff     32.5     10.1
Dave     12     10.4
Bill     37     14.6



Final Leaderboard

Player     Total Score     Change
matt tmw     20     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
FLYmeatwad     22.96     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Keith     24.14     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
michael x     26.1     
-
Beavermoose     36.97     
-
GothamCity151     39.3     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
1SO     45.4     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
Dave     49.6     
-
Noke     56.5     
(http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
Bill     58.6     
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
smirnoff     73.2     
-
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 04, 2010, 11:30:38 PM
And that concludes this round. Way to sneak in there, matt! :)

Unfortunately I'm going to have to bow out from (somewhat) running this game for at least a while. I'm feeling bad about how behind I've been with it, but at least for now I don't see that changing. If someone else wants to take the reigns, by all means. Afterall I was just temping for Clovis. ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 04, 2010, 11:45:51 PM
Maybe we could make the game more interesting by having the winner dictate a movie to all the others.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 04, 2010, 11:52:29 PM
Way to sneak in there, matt! :)
My second win!

Unfortunately I'm going to have to bow out from (somewhat) running this game for at least a while.
Thanks for running this, Melvil. You did a great job.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 05, 2010, 12:11:54 AM
Thanks Mel & grats Matt... and screw you Shia!

I can take the organizing reigns if ya want.  I believe this lies below my threshold for time commitment.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 05, 2010, 05:40:56 AM
Yay a first in a round, bummer about the fall to 2nd last in the next one. Thank you for your work Melvil, and thank you to iKeith for taking over.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 05, 2010, 07:32:04 AM
I actually didn't do THAT bad.

Thanks Melvil for your work!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 05, 2010, 10:18:18 AM
Ok then.  How do people feel about a truncated October horror(ish) Theme?

October 8th-10thOctober 15th-17thOctober 22nd-24thOctober 29th-31st
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/my_soul_to_take.jpg)(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/hereafter.jpg)(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/paranormal_activity_2.jpg)(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/saw_3d.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 05, 2010, 01:23:50 PM
Horror theme is fine.

Will guess 18M for My Soul to Take
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 05, 2010, 01:51:44 PM
may have to change Hereafter - Boxoffice Mojo lists it as a NY/LA/Toronto opening only at the moment.  stay tuned.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 05, 2010, 02:03:50 PM
12M for My Soul To Take. Who has even heard of it? Bleh
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on October 05, 2010, 03:39:20 PM
13 Mil for My Soul To Take
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 05, 2010, 05:18:25 PM
My Soul to Take: 5.6 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 05, 2010, 06:58:43 PM
matt, good job!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 05, 2010, 07:38:52 PM
Looking at the other films this week I'm actually thinking that My Soul to Take could make decent money.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 05, 2010, 08:25:50 PM
My Soul To Take - $12.5 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 06, 2010, 08:59:40 AM
9 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on October 08, 2010, 08:15:02 AM
10 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 08, 2010, 12:09:17 PM
11.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 08, 2010, 03:53:33 PM
7.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 08, 2010, 07:48:23 PM
Put me down for 8.3 M if I can still get in. FLY is sick.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 08, 2010, 09:12:56 PM
Yeah make mine 12mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 09, 2010, 01:22:11 PM
From Finke:

4. My Soul To Take (Rogue Pictures/Universal) NEW [2,572 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 09, 2010, 02:37:08 PM
From Finke:

4. My Soul To Take (Rogue Pictures/Universal) NEW [2,572 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $7M

Bummer.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 13, 2010, 12:42:47 AM
I think it'll be more fair to go by accuracy as opposed to difference as being 5m off is a bit different when yr guessing a 10m opener and a 100m opener.

My Soul to Take - $6.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Difference      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      7.7      0.9      86.76%   
   Melvil      5.6      1.2      82.35%   
   FLYmeatwad      8.3      1.5      77.94%   
   'Noke      9      2.2      67.65%   
   1SO      10      3.2      52.94%   
   matt tmw      11.5      4.7      30.88%   
   Beavermoose      12      5.2      23.53%   
   smirnoff      12      5.2      23.53%   
   GothamCity151      12.5      5.7      16.18%   
   Bill Thompson      13      6.2      8.82%   
   Dave the Necrobumper      18      11.2      -64.71%   



Leaderboard

   Player      Total Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      86.76%   
   Melvil      82.35%   
   FLYmeatwad      77.94%   
   'Noke      67.65%   
   1SO      52.94%   
   matt tmw      30.88%   
   Beavermoose      23.53%   
   smirnoff      23.53%   
   GothamCity151      16.18%   
   Bill Thompson      8.82%   
   Dave the Necrobumper      -64.71%   



So with Hereafter not going wide till next week, your assignment for the 15th is:

(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/jackass_3d.jpg)

THE HORROR!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 13, 2010, 12:50:56 AM
I think it'll be more fair to go by accuracy as opposed to difference as being 5m off is a bit different when yr guessing a 10m opener and a 100m opener.
That makes sense.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 13, 2010, 01:52:07 AM
So I am off to a terrific start, but before I guess the next film, can you tell me what it is, the picture tells me it is in 3d, but that is it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 13, 2010, 02:00:50 AM
I think it'll be more fair to go by accuracy as opposed to difference as being 5m off is a bit different when yr guessing a 10m opener and a 100m opener.
That makes sense.

It does, just feels like it would take a lot of work to pull off. Thanks a lot Keith!


So I am off to a terrific start, but before I guess the next film, can you tell me what it is, the picture tells me it is in 3d, but that is it.

'Jackass 3D' Trailer HD (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKwjU_pSSW4#ws)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 13, 2010, 02:13:36 AM
Thank you. I will go with 18M.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 13, 2010, 08:53:20 AM
I think it'll be more fair to go by accuracy as opposed to difference as being 5m off is a bit different when yr guessing a 10m opener and a 100m opener.
That makes sense.

It does, just feels like it would take a lot of work to pull off. Thanks a lot Keith!


nah, speadsheets are a beautiful thing.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on October 13, 2010, 09:48:45 AM
Jackass 3D - 20 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 13, 2010, 10:10:07 AM
38 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 13, 2010, 11:24:40 AM
Imma say 34 million.

Thanks Keith!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on October 14, 2010, 02:06:20 AM
$ 2 4 . 8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 15, 2010, 10:30:10 AM
29 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 15, 2010, 11:47:03 AM
Jackass 3D: 24
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 15, 2010, 04:03:27 PM
30.5

FLY, Moose, Gotham?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 15, 2010, 10:26:22 PM
27 mil if its not too late
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 16, 2010, 02:00:04 AM
27 mil if its not too late

yr good by me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 16, 2010, 08:09:13 AM
FLY, Moose, Gotham?

I am out for this round.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 16, 2010, 11:34:30 AM
This surprised me:

Friday Estimate: $21.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 16, 2010, 12:36:47 PM
This surprised me:

Friday Estimate: $21.8 million

yeah, more than a month of underperformance lead me to lowball this one.  note: America loves dildos shoved in their face.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 16, 2010, 01:17:43 PM
more than a month of underperformance lead me to lowball this one. 
Yep.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 16, 2010, 04:41:54 PM
I am DQ'ed for the rest of the weeks because I missed this week? Just absolutely swamped all week  :-\
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 17, 2010, 12:04:37 AM
I am DQ'ed for the rest of the weeks because I missed this week? Just absolutely swamped all week  :-\

this is a short one anyway - we're 1/2 way done.

is that what Mel was doing?  its not like there's a prize or anything so I don't see a problem with it.  I'll just keep tracking the accuracy.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 17, 2010, 09:02:20 AM
I don't know, I tried to always avoid being in a position where I didn't make a pick.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 17, 2010, 11:41:22 AM
Est:

1    N    Jackass 3-D    Par.    $50,000,000 :o

(thats such a fake number.)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Lola on October 17, 2010, 11:32:27 PM
Est:

1    N    Jackass 3-D    Par.    $50,000,000 :o

(thats such a fake number.)

‘Jackass 3D’ Breaks Records with $50M Debut"....I just dont get it..http://www.newsinfilm.com/2010/10/17/jackass-3d-breaks-records-with-50m-debut/ (http://www.newsinfilm.com/2010/10/17/jackass-3d-breaks-records-with-50m-debut/)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 18, 2010, 03:43:23 PM
damn, thought they just went 50 for the headline:

1      N      Jackass 3-D      Par.      $50,353,641      -      3,081      -      $16,343      $50,353,641      $20      1

Thats a 2.5% return on investment in 3 days. 
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 19, 2010, 11:54:39 PM
Jackass 3D - $50.4 Million!!!

   Player      Guess      Difference      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      38      12.4      75.40%   
   Melvil      34      16.4      67.46%   
   ¡Keith!      30.5      19.9      60.52%   
   'Noke      29      21.4      57.54%   
   Beavermoose      27      23.4      53.57%   
   1SO      24.8      25.6      49.21%   
   matt tmw      24      26.4      47.62%   
   Bill Thompson      20      30.4      39.68%   
   Dave the Necrobumper      18      32.4      35.71%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Melvil      74.91%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      73.64%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   'Noke      62.59%      -   
   1SO      51.07%      -   
   smirnoff      49.46%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      39.25%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      38.55%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      24.25%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper      -14.50%      -   



Pretty sure Mel dropped the admin duties to focus on his prognosticating game.

So this week is our only non-3D week of October... lame.

What will Paranormal Activity 2 scare up? (Bonus points for guessing how many headlines use that phrase in the next two week.)

(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/paranormal_activity_2.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 20, 2010, 12:28:53 AM
13.6 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on October 20, 2010, 12:31:44 AM
A lot of 2's in the poster.  I'm gonna say 22.2 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 20, 2010, 01:15:37 AM
Note: this (for some very odd reason) is being released in IMAX as well.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 20, 2010, 01:38:13 AM
20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 20, 2010, 07:59:19 AM
I'm going 28M.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on October 20, 2010, 10:06:29 AM
Paranormal Activity 2 - 15.4 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 20, 2010, 11:27:23 AM
Eek.

I guess I'll guess: 33.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 20, 2010, 12:23:33 PM
PA2: 35
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 22, 2010, 11:55:53 AM
Gonna go 36.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 22, 2010, 09:27:18 PM
If I can still get in, put me at $34.9 for PA^2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 23, 2010, 05:41:09 AM
36, I guess.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 23, 2010, 02:23:31 PM
Friday Estimate: $20.1 million

Two big opening weekends in a row for films that don't deserve it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 23, 2010, 02:59:44 PM
Why don't they deserve it?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 23, 2010, 03:30:30 PM
Why don't they deserve it?

Because they aren't good. I walked out of both.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 23, 2010, 05:16:47 PM
Why don't they deserve it?

Because they aren't good. I walked out of both.

Do you do this regularly, walk out of films?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 25, 2010, 12:15:25 AM
PA2 Est: $41,500,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 25, 2010, 03:15:08 PM
Official number: $40,678,424
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on October 25, 2010, 04:09:49 PM
Why don't they deserve it?

Because they aren't good. I walked out of both.

Do you do this regularly, walk out of films?

They were the 8th and 9th films I have walked out of.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 27, 2010, 02:17:09 PM
Why don't they deserve it?

Because they aren't good. I walked out of both.

Do you do this regularly, walk out of films?

They were the 8th and 9th films I have walked out of.

Not that regularly then.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 27, 2010, 02:17:40 PM
This game seems to have stalled, what is the film for this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 28, 2010, 11:22:39 AM
This game seems to have stalled, what is the film for this week?

when I go to lunch!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 28, 2010, 02:40:54 PM
Paranormal Activity 2 - $40.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Difference      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      36.7      4      90.17%   
   'Noke      36      4.7      88.45%   
   matt tmw      35      5.7      86.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      34.9      5.8      85.75%   
   Melvil      33.1      7.6      81.33%   
   smirnoff      28      12.7      68.80%   
   1SO      22.2      18.5      54.55%   
   Dave the Necrobumper      20      20.7      49.14%   
   Bill Thompson      15.4      25.3      37.84%   
   Beavermoose      13.6      27.1      33.42%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      79.15%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Melvil      77.05%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   'Noke      71.21%      -   
   smirnoff      55.91%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      54.83%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      52.23%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      36.84%      -   
   Bill Thompson      28.78%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      21.23%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper      6.72%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Mel & Me continue to battle for the top slot.  I've added FLY back in and gave him a negative %100 for the week he missed.

And now the final weekend of the October Horror (kinda) Fest!

What will Paranormal Activity 2 Saw 3D scare up?
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/saw_3d.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on October 28, 2010, 02:42:48 PM
23M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 28, 2010, 02:45:27 PM
Saw 3D: 28
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on October 28, 2010, 03:00:45 PM
33m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 28, 2010, 03:02:51 PM
33m

welcome to the game!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on October 28, 2010, 03:24:36 PM
Saw 3D, 25Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on October 28, 2010, 03:36:03 PM
33m

welcome to the game!

I was just browsing the thread, and thought you guys' estimates were just too low, so I was obligated to post. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 28, 2010, 04:28:20 PM
33m

welcome to the game!

I was just browsing the thread, and thought you guys' estimates were just too low, so I was obligated to post. :P

ha!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 28, 2010, 04:33:24 PM
Imma go 30 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on October 28, 2010, 04:36:24 PM
29.5 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 28, 2010, 04:36:36 PM
I'll think on this, and come back with a vengeance. A Furry Vengeance! Minus 100% be damned!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on October 28, 2010, 05:48:02 PM
23.9M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on October 29, 2010, 12:01:00 AM
36 mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 29, 2010, 03:57:08 PM
Give me $22.5 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on October 29, 2010, 04:02:56 PM
nice - 21.8

(Mel?)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on October 29, 2010, 04:12:56 PM
28!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on October 30, 2010, 10:03:45 AM
Melvil may be the best guess. Looks like it took in $11M yesterday and is set for around $28M for the weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on October 31, 2010, 01:02:15 AM
Melvil may be the best guess. Looks like it took in $11M yesterday and is set for around $28M for the weekend.
Ahem (http://www.filmspotting.net/forum/index.php?topic=7715.msg526713#msg526713).  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on October 31, 2010, 08:48:41 AM
Then I did aight I guess.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 01, 2010, 11:46:17 AM
not so fast there kids:

Weekend Estimate - 1 Saw 3D $22,500,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 01, 2010, 11:48:22 AM
FLY nailed it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 01, 2010, 01:06:08 PM
FLY'm so money, baby.

I'll think on this, and come back with a vengeance. A Furry Vengeance! Minus 100% be damned!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 02, 2010, 11:16:57 AM
Saw 3D - $22.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Difference      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      22.5      0      100.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper      23      0.5      97.78%   
   ¡Keith!      21.8      0.7      96.89%   
   smirnoff      23.9      1.4      93.78%   
   Bill Thompson      25      2.5      88.89%   
   Melvil      28      5.5      75.56%   
   matt tmw      28      5.5      75.56%   
   1SO      29.5      7      68.89%   
   'Noke      30      7.5      66.67%   
   dallegre       33      10.5      53.33%   
   Beavermoose      36      13.5      40.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      83.59%      -   
   Melvil      76.67%      -   
   'Noke      70.08%      -   
   smirnoff      65.38%      -   
   matt tmw      60.01%      -   
   1SO      56.40%      -   
   Bill Thompson      43.81%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      40.92%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose      37.63%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper      29.48%      -   




I think that makes Matt & I tied with 2 apiece?  Here are what the stats would've looked like had we used the number difference instead of a percentage difference (Giving FLY a -50.4 for missing out on the total for that week):

   Player      Total Accuracy      Change (From % Base)   
   ¡Keith!      6.375      -   
   Melvil      7.675      -   
   smirnoff      7.925      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   'Noke      8.95      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   matt tmw      10.575      -   
   1SO      13.575      -   
   FLYmeatwad      14.425      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      16.1      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper      16.2      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose      17.3      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)


So do we keep the accuracy % or go back to the total difference?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 02, 2010, 02:28:38 PM
Stick with accuracy %
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 02, 2010, 02:39:27 PM
Stick with accuracy %
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 02, 2010, 02:51:04 PM
accuracy % is more fun
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 02, 2010, 04:00:32 PM
If I didn't miss that week I would have murdered this competition. Pun intended! Keep the %'s. What is this week's film?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 02, 2010, 04:02:20 PM
% cause then smirnoff doesn't beat me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 02, 2010, 04:22:57 PM
You're lucky your so objectively awesome or I'd have something to say!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 02, 2010, 07:27:31 PM
27 Mill for next week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 02, 2010, 07:32:47 PM
What is this week's film?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 03, 2010, 12:11:17 AM
November spawned a monster:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/mastermind_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 03, 2010, 08:27:46 AM
54m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on November 03, 2010, 10:04:14 AM
MegaMind, 60Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 05, 2010, 09:59:10 AM
Guess I'd better get my guess in. 69.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 05, 2010, 12:43:22 PM
45 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 05, 2010, 12:46:18 PM
50 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on November 05, 2010, 01:42:06 PM
Sixty-Four Million Dollars.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 05, 2010, 02:09:11 PM
Megamind will do somewhere around $51.9 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 05, 2010, 04:04:27 PM
56.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 05, 2010, 07:57:36 PM
4 4 . 7   m i l l i o n
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 07, 2010, 11:42:06 AM
Weekend Est:

1 Megamind $47,650,000

 :-\
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on November 07, 2010, 12:14:08 PM
Curses!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 07, 2010, 12:28:38 PM
Curses!
Curses indeed, I forgot to submit *palm slap*
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 08, 2010, 09:27:21 PM
27 Mill for next week.

was this real?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 08, 2010, 10:03:41 PM
Actual for Megamind - $46,016,833

Matt's really good at this game.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 08, 2010, 10:22:37 PM
*waits for matt to guess*
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 08, 2010, 10:41:48 PM
27 Mill for next week.

was this real?

Might as well be. I'm trying to guess before the movie is chosen. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 10, 2010, 01:12:36 AM
Actual for Megamind - $46,016,833
Matt's really good at this game.
Woo hoo!

*waits for matt to guess*
:)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 10, 2010, 01:01:25 PM
Seeing as we already have a guess for this weekends movie boxoffice, can we have the name of the movie?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 10, 2010, 02:32:59 PM
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/unstoppable_poster.jpg)


TONY SCOTT!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on November 10, 2010, 02:34:07 PM
26 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 10, 2010, 05:21:14 PM
30 000 001$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 10, 2010, 05:35:29 PM
"Run this b**** down!"  ::)

25M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 11, 2010, 01:29:33 AM
30 000 001$

the price is wrong, Beaver.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 11, 2010, 01:47:59 AM
27.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 12, 2010, 01:20:58 AM
30 000 001$

the price is wrong, Beaver.

I hope so.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 12, 2010, 01:46:34 AM
Unstoppable: 19.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 12, 2010, 08:40:19 AM
22m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 12, 2010, 09:35:06 AM
I'm adjusting my guess down to 21.9m because I noticed there's a lot of other better looking movies out or coming out.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 12, 2010, 09:56:36 AM
21.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 12, 2010, 12:23:43 PM
Unstoppable: 19.5

I'm with Matt on this one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 12, 2010, 03:26:53 PM
Megamind - $46 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      45      1      97.83%   
   1SO      44.7      1.3      97.17%   
   Noke      50      4      91.30%   
   FLYmeatwad      51.9      5.9      87.17%   
   dallegre      54      8      82.61%   
   ¡Keith!      56.7      10.7      76.74%   
   Bill Thompson      60      14      69.57%   
   Melvil      64      18      60.87%   
   smirnoff      69.2      23.2      49.57%   





Even if you didn't get a guess in last week feel free to play this time round!  All guesses are due... todayish.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 12, 2010, 03:36:07 PM
Megamind will do somewhere around $51.9 M

Megamind - $46 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      59.1      13.1      71.52%   

Recount!

Also, for Denzel I'll say 23.1 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 12, 2010, 03:37:31 PM
ha! whoops. fixed.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on November 12, 2010, 03:51:10 PM
27.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 12, 2010, 04:28:12 PM
23.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 13, 2010, 03:33:50 PM
Friday est: $8,100,000

Denzel btw is one of the most consistent openers in the biz over the last decade:

2000: Remember the Titans $20,905,831
2001: Training Day $22,550,788
2002: John Q. $20,275,194
2003: Out of Time $16,185,316 (outlier, blame MGM)
2004: Man on Fire $22,751,490
2004: The Manchurian Candidate $20,018,620
2006: Inside Man    $28,954,945 (Exceptionally marketed film + hot co-star)
2006: Deja Vu $20,574,802
2007: American Gangster 43,565,115 (Biggest opening, combo of director, co-star & marketing)
2009: The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $23,373,102
2010: The Book of Eli $32,789,494 (odd man out - the plot of this one appeals to a wider audience then Washington usually gets in several ways)
2010: Unstoppable looking to snag between 23 & 24m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 13, 2010, 04:11:53 PM
Knew I should have went higher. Hopefully it tails off a little bit and ends up around 23.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 13, 2010, 04:47:00 PM
Knew I should have went higher. Hopefully it tails off a little bit and ends up around 23.1

yr certainly in the gold zone.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 14, 2010, 03:26:57 PM
I was close to guessing 23.4, but decided to go a little lower. Early estimates seem to be placing it around 23.5.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 17, 2010, 04:26:12 PM
What is the film for this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 17, 2010, 07:17:33 PM
Train movie?

23.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 17, 2010, 11:05:09 PM
Train movie?

23.5M

lol - that was last week!

this week is a bit obvious:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/harrypotter7_poster.jpg)

PENULTIMATE!!!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on November 18, 2010, 12:00:58 AM
84.5 please.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 18, 2010, 12:03:58 AM
84.5 please.

FYI - Tomorrow's midnights are included in the weekend total.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 18, 2010, 12:07:20 AM
I'm going for it.

100 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 18, 2010, 02:15:40 AM
135 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 18, 2010, 09:29:55 AM
3 guesses and a +50m dollar spread - nice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 18, 2010, 10:29:41 AM
imma say 100 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 18, 2010, 11:12:39 AM
87 Million for HP
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 18, 2010, 11:28:32 AM
Harry Potter 7: 128 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 18, 2010, 12:13:54 PM
Am I out of this race?

94 Mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on November 18, 2010, 03:34:42 PM
112Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 18, 2010, 03:57:33 PM
Unstoppable - $22.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      23.1      0.4      98.24%   
   dallegre      22      0.7      96.92%   
   smirnoff      21.9      0.8      96.48%   
   1SO      21.7      1      95.59%   
   ¡Keith!      23.9      1.2      94.71%   
   matt tmw      19.5      3.2      85.90%   
   Noke      19.5      3.2      85.90%   
   Bill Thompson      26      3.3      85.46%   
   Melvil      27.1      4.4      80.62%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       27.5      4.8      78.85%   
   Beavermoose       30      7.3      67.84%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   1SO      96.38%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      92.71%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      91.86%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   dallegre      89.76%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      88.60%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   ¡Keith!      85.73%      -   
   Bill Thompson      77.51%      -   
   smirnoff      73.02%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Melvil      70.74%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose       63.27%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       39.43%      -   



Added in Beavermoose, as I totally left him out last week (sorry!) and gave Dave a 0 for week 1 in his average - the -100% seems too harsh a penalty.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 19, 2010, 08:39:51 AM
Deathly Hallows:

91m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 19, 2010, 01:14:00 PM

Added in Beavermoose, as I totally left him out last week (sorry!) and gave Dave a 0 for week 1 in his average - the -100% seems too harsh a penalty.

Thanks  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 19, 2010, 04:06:02 PM
137.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 19, 2010, 04:44:02 PM
FLY?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 19, 2010, 04:51:10 PM
Can I change mine to 150?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 19, 2010, 05:09:53 PM
Can I change mine to 150?

sure!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 19, 2010, 07:49:13 PM
Still too late? If not, let's say 132.9M?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 20, 2010, 01:49:15 PM
Friday Estimate $61,150,000, it is going to be a biggie
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Mike Shutt on November 21, 2010, 07:46:26 PM
Weekend estimate: $125 million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 21, 2010, 08:13:35 PM
Weekend estimate: $125 million.

imma say 100 mill.
Can I change mine to 150?

sure!

change didn't matter in the least! :D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 22, 2010, 02:51:10 PM
Potter Actual: $125,017,372

This week... HOLIDAY BONUS!

5 day guesses should be made by Wednesday for:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/burlesque_poster.jpg)

And for fun lets 'ave a go at (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/harrypotter7_poster.jpg) again, 5 Day this time.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on November 22, 2010, 02:53:43 PM
Burlesque - 24Mil

Are we doing totals so far for HP, or just for this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 22, 2010, 03:19:54 PM
Are we doing totals so far for HP, or just for this week?

Nah, just its haul from Wed thru Sunday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on November 22, 2010, 03:25:39 PM
Okay then,

Harry Potter 66MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on November 23, 2010, 01:34:46 AM
Burlesque - 20M
HP - 95M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 23, 2010, 11:23:46 AM
Burlesque

27m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 23, 2010, 09:33:17 PM
Burlesque - 17M
HP - 67M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on November 23, 2010, 09:44:22 PM
Burlesque: 14.5M
HP7: 72M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 23, 2010, 11:48:01 PM
Burlesque

27m

Potter?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on November 24, 2010, 12:12:05 AM
Burlesque - 23.3 million
Harry Potter - 84 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 24, 2010, 01:14:12 PM
reminder - guesses due today!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on November 24, 2010, 01:57:38 PM
Burlesque - 15M

HP - 70M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 24, 2010, 05:35:32 PM
Burlesque - 18 mil

HP - 85 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 25, 2010, 03:04:32 AM
right, me - Burlesque 19.6, potter 66.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on November 25, 2010, 08:02:20 AM
Eh, I reckon I'll take the death penalty. Internet was out all day yesterday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on November 28, 2010, 11:53:22 AM
I'm glad tangled made a decent amount of money. It isn't helping the cause for 2d animated films though :/
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 28, 2010, 04:33:51 PM
5-day est.

1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 $76,284,815 -39.0%
2 Tangled $69,000,000  :o
3 Megamind $17,551,373 +9.6%
4 Burlesque $17,150,000
5 Unstoppable $16,175,074 +24.4%
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 30, 2010, 10:19:00 AM
2 Weeks Ago:

Potter 7 - $125 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      128      3      97.60%   
   FLYmeatwad      132.9      7.9      93.68%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       135      10      92.00%   
   ¡Keith!      137.8      12.8      89.76%   
   Bill Thompson      112      13      89.60%   
   1SO      100      25      80.00%   
   Noke      150      25      80.00%   
   Beavermoose       94      31      75.20%   
   dallegre      91      34      72.80%   
   smirnoff      87      38      69.60%   
   Melvil      84.5      40.5      67.60%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   matt tmw      93.78%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      93.03%      -   
   1SO      90.92%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   ¡Keith!      87.07%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      85.74%      -   
   dallegre      84.11%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      81.54%      -   
   smirnoff      71.88%      -   
   Melvil      69.70%      -   
   Beavermoose       67.25%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       56.95%      -   
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on November 30, 2010, 10:45:56 AM
TG Weekend Double Gobble!

Potter 7 - $75 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      72      3      96.00%   
   smirnoff      70      5      93.33%   
   Beavermoose       67      8      89.33%   
   ¡Keith!      66.1      8.9      88.13%   
   1SO      84      41      88.00%   
   Bill Thompson      66      9      88.00%   
   Noke      85      10      86.67%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       20      30      73.33%   
   dallegre      NG      75      0.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      NG      75      0.00%   
   Melvil      NG      75      0.00%   



Burlesque - $17.3 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Beavermoose       17      .3      98.27%   
   Noke      18      .7      95.95%   
   ¡Keith!      19.6      2.3      86.71%   
   smirnoff      15      2.3      86.71%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       20      2.7      84.39%   
   matt tmw      14.5      2.8      83.82%   
   1SO      23.3      6    65.32%   
   Bill Thompson      24      6.7      61.27%   
   dallegre      27      9.7      43.93%   
   FLYmeatwad      NG      17.3      0.00%   
   Melvil      NG      17.3      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   matt tmw      92.23%      -   
   Noke      87.97%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      87.21%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      85.22%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      79.14%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      78.78%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose       77.87%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       65.72% (82.15%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   dallegre      59.25% (74.06%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      55.82% (93.03%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Melvil      41.82% (69.70%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



3 days of death before the Christmas season kicks in:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/warriorsway_poster.jpg)

This is the last week of the current round, and Matt has the inside track on #3!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on November 30, 2010, 12:41:28 PM
Wait, I'm in second? What's goin on?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on November 30, 2010, 01:52:14 PM
The Warrior's Way - 9m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on November 30, 2010, 01:53:58 PM
1$ Bob.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 01, 2010, 02:59:58 PM
6Mil for The Warrior's Way
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 01, 2010, 03:39:11 PM
The Warrior's Way: 7.5 m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on December 01, 2010, 05:24:01 PM
5mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 01, 2010, 06:11:46 PM
$478.56M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 01, 2010, 08:00:20 PM
The Warrior's Way: 7 m

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 02, 2010, 05:50:21 AM
8.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on December 02, 2010, 06:48:49 AM
8.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 02, 2010, 12:38:08 PM
4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 02, 2010, 03:03:19 PM
$478.56M

1$ Bob.

I added in the parenthetical to dissuade this type of behavior!  ;)


i'm also keeping a running total of accuracy across all supplied guesses from when I took over :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on December 02, 2010, 03:07:31 PM
I added in the parenthetical to dissuade this type of behavior!  ;)

Did it work? ;D

Okay, fine. I'll guess 5.8, being rather pessimistic since I've never heard of this movie.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 03, 2010, 03:37:20 PM
Okay...put me at $4.78M then.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 03, 2010, 04:58:02 PM
I'll go 4.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 04, 2010, 12:12:11 PM
shoulda gone lower:

DHD Says:

9. The Warrior's Way (Relativity) NEW [1,622 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $2.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 04, 2010, 12:18:29 PM
Damn, this means Keith and 1SO could overtake me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 05, 2010, 02:39:36 PM
official est:
The Warrior's Way $3,051,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 05, 2010, 06:00:10 PM
If I wasn't kissed by a Death Eater Dementor for missing that week, I would totally be close to winning this thing.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 05, 2010, 07:19:03 PM
official est:
The Warrior's Way $3,051,000

hmmm, there are a lot of people in negative percentages, things are gonna change quite a bit.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 06, 2010, 05:05:45 PM
2 Weeks Ago:

The Warrior's Way - $3.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   1SO      4      0.9      70.97%   
   ¡Keith!      4.4      1.3      58.06%   
   FLYmeatwad      4.78      1.68      45.81%   
   Beavermoose       5      1.9      38.71%   
   Melvil      5.8      2.7      12.90%   
   Bill Thompson      6      2.9      6.45%   
   Noke      7      3.9      -25.81%   
   matt tmw      7.5      4.4      -41.94%   
   smirnoff      8.2      5.1      -64.52%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       8.5      5.4      -74.19%   
   dallegre      9      5.9      -90.32%   




   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   1SO      82.84%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      82.35%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose       71.34%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      69.87%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      69.00%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      66.73%      -   
   smirnoff      55.19%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      54.15% (81.22%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       42.40% (50.88%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Melvil      37.00% (55.50%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   dallegre      34.32% (41.19%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



And thats it for the November/Thanksgiving session!  Congrats to 1SO on your (first?) victory!

Next up we have the Christmas/New Years Season!  Your six films for this run will include:

12/10-12
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/tourist_poster.jpg)

12/17-19
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/tron2_poster.jpg)

12/22-26 (Christmas 5-day)
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/truegrit2010_poster.jpg) + (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/gulliverstravels_poster.jpg)

12/31-1/2 (Holdover)
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/meetthefockerssequel_poster.jpg)

1/7-9
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/countrystrong_poster.jpg) (maybe)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 06, 2010, 06:08:33 PM
I pulled that out of my butt in the final round, didn't I?  Man, I thought the first game back in May was the closest I'd ever get.
That's cool.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on December 06, 2010, 06:12:57 PM
I got not last! Woo!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 06, 2010, 07:16:02 PM
Damn you Manana!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 06, 2010, 09:32:06 PM
I pulled that out of my butt in the final round, didn't I?  Man, I thought the first game back in May was the closest I'd ever get.
That's cool.

srsly, less than 1/2 a percent!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on December 06, 2010, 10:12:26 PM
Wow how did I end up third. I was second to last.
   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   matt tmw      93.78%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      93.03%      -   
   1SO      90.92%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   ¡Keith!      87.07%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      85.74%      -   
   dallegre      84.11%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      81.54%      -   
   smirnoff      71.88%      -   
   Melvil      69.70%      -   
   Beavermoose       67.25%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       56.95%      -   

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 06, 2010, 11:39:49 PM
you were a bit higher than that - check the post under that one.  still doesn;t look right

::rechecking the spreadsheet::
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 06, 2010, 11:45:58 PM
nope, average of 6 pics: 58.70%, 67.84%, 75.20%, 89.33%, 98.27%, 38.71% = 71.34%
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on December 07, 2010, 12:32:54 AM
Thank god for Burlesque ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 07, 2010, 06:26:25 AM
Lets see if I can continue a run of not last.

The Tourist - $23M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on December 07, 2010, 07:42:52 AM
16M Tourist
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on December 07, 2010, 11:18:21 AM
Good God, I'm bad at this. I'm gonna go low for The Tourist since I've been way over the past two weeks.

The Tourist: 13m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 07, 2010, 03:44:46 PM
The Tourist - 12Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 08, 2010, 11:48:07 AM
Darn that Warrior's Way, it killed me!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 10, 2010, 11:15:08 AM
17 mil!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 10, 2010, 11:27:41 AM
Depp and Jolie gotta at least be good for $25 million.

I'll say $24.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 10, 2010, 11:58:06 AM
The Tourist: 19.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 10, 2010, 03:20:36 PM
1720 mil!

vote change!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 10, 2010, 04:48:31 PM
$18.97 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Melvil on December 10, 2010, 07:48:27 PM
31 Mil.

Go big or go home!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 10, 2010, 08:00:46 PM
I am home, its where I do all my posting.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 10, 2010, 09:46:59 PM
21.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 11, 2010, 02:13:41 AM
Finke say:

2. The Tourist (GK Films/Sony) NEW [2,756 Theaters]
Friday $6.5M, Estimated Weekend $18.5M

good start FLY
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 11, 2010, 06:29:39 AM
I'm a week away from break too, and only observing this week, so my presence here will resume in Full Force, meaning I should not be missing weeks as I have in the past. No more 0%'s!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 12, 2010, 02:24:45 AM
official est dips lower: $6,100,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 12, 2010, 12:45:22 PM
1720 mil!

vote change!

Official est:
2    N    The Tourist    Sony    $17,000,000

'NOKE!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 12, 2010, 12:49:20 PM
Thought pushing it closer to 19 was too high, but matt's pick made me reconsider because of how great he tends to be at this game. Nice job, smirnoff!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on December 13, 2010, 11:25:59 AM
My lucky week :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FarfetchFilm on December 13, 2010, 10:32:18 PM
will join in for new year.

NICOLAS CAGE OFF THE BAT BABY
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 15, 2010, 08:37:14 PM
It's Tron this weekend?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 15, 2010, 10:21:31 PM
It's Tron this weekend?

it is!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on December 16, 2010, 07:36:57 AM
42.5M TRON
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 16, 2010, 08:01:27 AM
Tron 38 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 16, 2010, 09:43:19 AM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 1

                    The Tourist - $16.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      16      0.5      96.97%   
   FLYmeatwad      18.97      2.47      85.03%   
   matt tmw      19.5      3      81.82%   
   dallegre      13      3.5      78.79%   
   Noke      20      3.5      78.79%   
   Bill Thompson      12      4.5      72.73%   
   ¡Keith!      21.1      4.6      72.12%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       23      6.5      60.61%   
   1SO      24.8      8.3      49.70%   
   Beavermoose       27      10.5      36.36%   
   Melvil      31      14.5      12.12%   



'nother reminder - get yr lightcycle on:

12/17-19
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/tron2_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 16, 2010, 09:55:05 AM
T R O N : L E G A C Y

6 7 . 4 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on December 16, 2010, 10:06:51 AM
Tron: Legacy

47m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 16, 2010, 12:05:05 PM
55 mil sounds good.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 16, 2010, 01:31:25 PM
48M for Tron
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on December 16, 2010, 05:07:30 PM
I'm pretty sure I didn't participate last week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 17, 2010, 11:57:15 AM
Tron: 39 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 17, 2010, 02:23:16 PM
If Tron opens huge I'm gonna be looking pretty good.  If not, I'm toast.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 17, 2010, 02:40:18 PM
I'm pretty sure I didn't participate last week.

so... what about this week? ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 17, 2010, 03:57:56 PM
51.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 17, 2010, 04:28:52 PM
$36.666 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 19, 2010, 01:43:55 PM
Est: 1    N    Tron Legacy    BV    $43,600,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 19, 2010, 01:55:51 PM
Damn, smirnoff is killing it. Way to go!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 20, 2010, 10:04:40 PM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 2

                    TRON: Legacy - $44.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      42.5      1.5      96.59%   
   dallegre      47      3      93.18%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       48      4      90.91%   
   matt tmw      39      5      88.64%   
   Bill Thompson      38      6      86.36%   
   FLYmeatwad      36.7      7.3      83.41%   
   ¡Keith!      51.7      7.7      82.50%   
   Noke      55      11      75.00%   
   1SO      67.4      23.4      46.82%   
   Melvil      NG      44      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   smirnoff      96.78%      -   
   dallegre      85.98%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      85.23%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      84.22%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      79.55%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      77.31%      -   
   Noke      76.89%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       75.76%      -   
   1SO      48.26%      -   
   Melvil      6.06%      -   



Remember this is a HOLIDAY WEEKEND - all 5 DAY guesses due Wednesday (not that most people don't already get it in by then).  Change from the original plan as Gulliver's Travels moved back to a Christmas Day release so you will be guessing:

12/22-26
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/truegrit2010_poster.jpg) and (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/blackswan_poster.jpg)

FYI - Black Swan seems to be expanding on Wednesday and then again on the 25th
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 20, 2010, 10:09:39 PM
I have a bad feeling that this week is going to sink me. Gulliver's would have been easier  :P

EDIT: Even Little Fockers would have been easier, I think.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 20, 2010, 10:54:58 PM
EDIT: Even Little Fockers would have been easier, I think.

have to hold something back as nothing opens wide next week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 21, 2010, 12:22:02 PM
True Grit - 42 Mil

Black Swan - 23 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 21, 2010, 01:58:50 PM
True Grit - 37
Black Swan - 32
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 21, 2010, 02:38:58 PM
True Grit - 38.7

Black Swan - 21
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 21, 2010, 08:33:26 PM
$28.4M for Grit
$19.7M for Swan
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on December 22, 2010, 11:40:14 AM
True Grit 30m

Black Swan 17m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 22, 2010, 04:13:09 PM
Black Swan - 12.3

True Grit - 29.9

REMINDER - GUESSES DUE TODAY(ISH)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 22, 2010, 05:13:33 PM
35 for Grit

18 for Swan.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 22, 2010, 06:38:59 PM
Thought I was going too high for Swan. I think I'm in the right area for Grit, maybe a tad too high, but Swan I was really unsure about, so your guess has me guessing myself, iKeith!.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 23, 2010, 01:14:59 AM
Matt, Noff?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on December 23, 2010, 01:20:48 AM
Black Swan: 12

True Grit: 22
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 23, 2010, 02:02:10 PM
Wed est: 1. Little Fockers (Universal) NEW [3,536 Theaters]
Wednesday $7.2
 
2. Tron 3D (Disney) Week 1 [3,451 Theaters]
Wednesday $5.6M, Cume $62.1M
 
3. True Grit (Paramount) NEW [3,047 Theaters]
Wednesday $5.5M
 
4. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 1 [3,515 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.9M, Cume $24.6M
 
5. Narnia 3D/Dawn Treader (Walden/Fox) Week 2 [3,555 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.5M, Cume $50.1M
 
6. Tangled 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,201 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.2M, Cume $134.6M
 
7. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 3 [959 Theaters]
Wednesday $1.7M, Cume $20.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 28, 2010, 12:29:01 PM
Paramount is still on vacation,

Black Swan: $9,806,883
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 30, 2010, 12:43:01 AM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 3.1

                    Black Swan (5-Day) - $9.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      12      2.2      77.55%   
   ¡Keith!      12.3      2.5      74.49%   
   dallegre      17      7.2      26.53%   
   Noke      18      8.2      16.33%   
   Melvil      NG      9.8      0.00%   
   smirnoff      NG      9.8      0.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      19.7      9.9      -1.02%   
   1SO      21      11.2      -14.29%   
   Bill Thompson      23      13.2      -34.69%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       32      22.2      -126.53%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   matt tmw      82.67%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      76.37%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   dallegre      66.17%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      64.52% (96.78%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      56.70%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      55.81%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      41.47%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      27.41%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       8.33%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Melvil      4.04% (12.12%)      -   



So Paramount has yet to update final numbers for last weekend for True Grit. Those'll be posted when they come in.  For New Years weekend you'll be guessing the second week of:

12/31-1/2
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/meetthefockerssequel_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 30, 2010, 10:00:44 AM
Little Fockers - 40 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on December 30, 2010, 11:30:22 AM
Little Fockers - 40 Mil

This is the second week for fockers and it made 30 mil last week.
Jus' sayin'
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on December 30, 2010, 01:14:33 PM
Little Fockers - 22M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on December 30, 2010, 04:59:12 PM
Little Fockers - 40 Mil

This is the second week for fockers and it made 30 mil last week.
Jus' sayin'

Oh, thought it was opening week. In that case change my guess to,

Little Fockers - 17 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on December 30, 2010, 06:03:44 PM
11 Mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on December 31, 2010, 05:37:55 PM
24.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on December 31, 2010, 06:22:43 PM
Damn, almost forgot about this. Right before going out for the night, I will project 23.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on December 31, 2010, 07:53:36 PM
19 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 01, 2011, 01:37:43 AM
oops, i'm late.  :-[

20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 01, 2011, 04:09:54 AM
pretty sure any numbers reporting will be late if not absent so feel free to continue submitting guesses till at least noon NYD if not later.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 01, 2011, 05:47:12 PM
Friday:

1   TRUE GRIT (2010) $8,186,000 +23.7%
2   LITTLE FOCKERS $7,765,000 -2.7%

TG has a shot at taking the weekend!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 01, 2011, 07:36:32 PM
But when will those official numbers for its first weekend be in?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 02, 2011, 12:48:15 AM
But when will those official numbers for its first weekend be in?

word is monday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 05, 2011, 09:24:06 AM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 3.2

                    True Grit (5-Day) - $36 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Dave the Necrobumper       37      1      97.22%   
   Noke      35      1      97.22%   
   1SO      38.7      2.7      92.50%   
   Bill Thompson      42      6      83.33%   
   dallegre      30      6      83.33%   
   ¡Keith!      29.9      6.1      83.06%   
   FLYmeatwad      28.4      7.6      78.89%   
   matt tmw      22      14      61.11%   
   Melvil      NG      36      0.00%   
   smirnoff      NG      36      0.00%   


   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      78.04%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      77.28%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   dallegre      70.46%      -   
   Noke      66.83%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      61.58%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      51.93%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      48.39% (96.78%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      43.68%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       30.55%      -   
   Melvil      3.03% (12.12%)      -   
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 05, 2011, 09:32:54 AM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 4

          Little Fockers (Week 2) - $25.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      24.7      1.1      95.74%   
   FLYmeatwad      23.4      2.4      90.70%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       22      3.8      85.27%   
   matt tmw      20      5.8      77.52%   
   1SO      19      6.8      73.64%   
   Bill Thompson      17      8.8      65.89%   
   Noke      11      14.8      42.64%   
   dallegre      NG      25.8      0.00%   
   Melvil      NG      25.8      0.00%   
   smirnoff      NG      25.8      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      81.58%      -   
   matt tmw      77.33%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      67.40%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      61.99%      -   
   dallegre      56.37% (70.46%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      54.72%      -   
   1SO      49.67%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       41.50%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      38.71% (96.78%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Melvil      2.42% (12.12%)      -   



Last weekend of the holiday game and it's time to get CAGEified!

         1/7-1/9
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/seasonofthewitch_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 05, 2011, 09:38:22 AM
FLY is rising.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 05, 2011, 01:23:50 PM
Season of the Witch: 16.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on January 05, 2011, 07:03:06 PM
Season of the Witch: 10.5m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on January 05, 2011, 07:11:32 PM
Season of the Witch - 11 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 05, 2011, 07:13:13 PM
Season of the Witch - 9M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dallegre on January 05, 2011, 07:27:05 PM
I fear I've overestimated a film once again.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 05, 2011, 11:31:43 PM
I fear I've overestimated a film once again.

you (and everyone else for that matter) can change their guesses up to the fictitious deadline!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on January 06, 2011, 03:00:11 PM
8 . 7 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on January 07, 2011, 04:40:42 AM
10 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 07, 2011, 09:20:17 AM
$12.3M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 07, 2011, 08:19:42 PM
7.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 09, 2011, 01:01:01 PM
Est: 3    N    Season of the Witch    Rela.    $10,726,000

Can't believe this did double figures - go CAGE!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 12, 2011, 02:34:58 AM
Holiday 2010 Game - Week 5

          Season of the Witch - $10.6 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   dallegre      10.5      0.1      99.06%   
   Bill Thompson      11      0.4      96.23%   
   Noke      10      0.6      94.34%   
   matt tmw      9      1.6      84.91%   
   FLYmeatwad      12.3      1.7      83.96%   
   1SO      8.7      1.9      82.08%   
   ¡Keith!      7.9      2.7      74.53%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       16.5      5.9      44.34%   
   Melvil      NG      10.6      0.00%   
   smirnoff      0      10.6      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      80.41%      -   
   matt tmw      78.59%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      70.16%      -   
   Noke      67.39%      -   
   dallegre      63.48% (76.18%)      -   
   Bill Thompson      61.64%      -   
   1SO      55.07%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       41.97%      -   
   smirnoff      32.26% (96.78%)      -   
   Melvil      2.02% (12.12%)      -   



yay me! hung on for the win - no movement up or down this week either, odd that.

Do we want a breather or do we plow ahead (snow joke!) with MLK Weekend?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 12, 2011, 02:04:39 PM
Keep going if that is ok with you.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 12, 2011, 03:20:51 PM
Well then - 4 day holiday weekend coming up! Guess the Friday thru Monday gross of:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/img/g/greenhornet/0001_TGH_DOM_IT_TSR_1SHT.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 12, 2011, 03:54:55 PM
Urgh, so close!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on January 12, 2011, 07:45:00 PM
Next round. Okay I'm back in.

30.7 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on January 12, 2011, 08:11:15 PM
The Green Hornet - 20 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 13, 2011, 01:58:32 AM
28M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 13, 2011, 02:04:43 AM
Reminder, you are guessing 4 days instead of the usual 3.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on January 13, 2011, 09:23:43 AM
When does this game reset? I've missed too many weeks.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 13, 2011, 10:05:38 AM
When does this game reset? I've missed too many weeks.

This week is the reset!

This Craptastic Winter 6 week session looks kinda like this:

Jan 14-17 (4-Day MLK Day Weekend)
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/greenhornet_poster.jpg)

Jan 21-24
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/friendswithbenefits_poster.jpg)

Jan 28-30
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/mechanic_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/rite_poster.jpg)

Feb 4-6
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/sanctum_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/roommate10_poster.jpg)

Feb 11-13
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/bieber3d_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/eagleoftheninth_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/thepretendwife_poster.jpg)

Feb 18-21 (4-Day President's Day Weekend)
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/iamnumberfour_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/bigmomma3_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/unknownwhitemale11_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on January 13, 2011, 10:21:41 AM
I don't usually check estimates, so I'm not sure what's in the ball park or not, but I'm going to guess 44M for Green Hornet.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 13, 2011, 10:26:24 AM
The Green Hornet: 32M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 13, 2011, 10:30:25 AM
Is there an implication that No Strings Attached will be anything short of fantastic? Portman and the Kutch!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on January 13, 2011, 10:32:09 AM
The Green Hornet: 32M

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 13, 2011, 02:26:15 PM
Is there an implication that No Strings Attached will be anything short of fantastic? Portman and the Kutch!

For you it will be, the rest of us?????
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on January 14, 2011, 01:01:38 AM
32.1 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 14, 2011, 08:32:05 AM
$41.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 14, 2011, 03:40:18 PM
42.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 16, 2011, 04:39:23 PM
3-Day est: $34,000,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on January 16, 2011, 05:44:03 PM
32.1 million

Hey, I did great.


Reminder, you are guessing 4 days instead of the usual 3.

...crap.  :(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 18, 2011, 09:15:24 AM
4-Day est: $40,000,000 (final numbers should be up this after)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 18, 2011, 09:48:27 AM
Make it dank! Good start, FLY.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 18, 2011, 05:06:21 PM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 1

                 The Green Hornet - $40 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      41.6      1.6      96.00%   
   ¡Keith!      42.8      2.8      93.00%   
   smirnoff      44      4      90.00%   
   1SO      32.1      7.9      80.25%   
   matt tmw      32      8      80.00%   
   Noke      32      8      80.00%   
   Beavermoose      30.7      9.3      76.75%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       28      12      70.00%   
   Bill Thompson      20      20      50.00%   



Blue Swan?
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/friendswithbenefits_poster.jpg)

Back to a normal 3 day.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on January 18, 2011, 05:27:59 PM
Looks awful!

15M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 18, 2011, 07:45:27 PM
Looks awful fantastic!

Guess to come, but I concur. The Kutch!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on January 18, 2011, 07:54:08 PM
I'm gonna jump back in a week late. Based on the fact that The Way Back and The Company Men also open, I will guess a low $12.8 Mil for No Strings Attached.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 19, 2011, 09:07:37 AM
welcome back!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 19, 2011, 02:06:13 PM
10.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on January 19, 2011, 02:39:09 PM
12 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 21, 2011, 03:53:23 PM
19.98 - Portmania is at full bloom!

FLYmeatwad
1SO
matt tmw

Noke
Beavermoose    
?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on January 21, 2011, 04:07:56 PM
I completely forgot.

$17.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 21, 2011, 04:11:46 PM
15.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 21, 2011, 04:40:31 PM
10 for Kutch. 10 for Port.

$20.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 21, 2011, 04:41:42 PM
who's the .4 for?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 21, 2011, 04:44:41 PM
I think I saw Kelly from The Office in the commercials.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on January 21, 2011, 04:46:48 PM
14.6 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on January 21, 2011, 05:02:01 PM
16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 22, 2011, 12:31:49 PM
Finkenstein says:

1. No Strings Attached (Paramount) NEW [3,018 Theaters]
Friday $7.3M, Estimated Weekend $20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 22, 2011, 04:24:57 PM
Hoping we can add a .4 for Kelly from The Office if you know what I'm saying.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 23, 2011, 11:26:07 AM
I seem to have overestimated the Kelly factor. My sources are telling me we hauled in $20.3M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on January 23, 2011, 12:34:31 PM
I knew there was a reason I quit this game.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 24, 2011, 04:30:13 PM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 2

             No Strings Attached - $19.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      19.98      0.28      98.58%   
   FLYmeatwad      20.4      0.7      96.45%   
   1SO      17.8      1.9      90.36%   
   Noke      16.5      3.2      83.76%   
   matt tmw      15.5      4.2      78.68%   
   smirnoff      15      4.7      76.14%   
   Beavermoose      14.6      5.1      74.11%   
   Corndog      12.8      6.9      64.97%   
   Bill Thompson      12      7.7      60.91%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       10.5      9.2      53.30%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   FLYmeatwad      96.22%      -   
   ¡Keith!      95.79%      -   
   1SO      85.30%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      83.07%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      81.88%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      79.34%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      75.43%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       61.65%      -   
   Bill Thompson      55.46%      -   
   Corndog      32.49% (64.97%)      -   

Shapin' up to be a squeaker!



This week, its paycheck time!

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/rite_poster.jpg)

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on January 24, 2011, 04:55:55 PM
I will be seeing it this weekend, so I will say: $14.2 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 24, 2011, 05:09:39 PM
Damn. How did the 20.3 estimate drop so much!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on January 24, 2011, 05:13:10 PM
Championship Sunday happened.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on January 24, 2011, 08:01:22 PM
15M for The Rite
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on January 24, 2011, 09:30:55 PM
14.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on January 24, 2011, 10:31:17 PM
11 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 25, 2011, 01:26:14 AM
Championship Sunday happened.

this.  sunday drops were 15-30% greater than usual.  FYI, there is no historical similarity for ProBowl Sunday.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on January 25, 2011, 02:26:11 AM
12M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 28, 2011, 09:16:13 AM
18.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on January 28, 2011, 10:22:45 AM
18.8 m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on January 28, 2011, 10:24:13 AM
17.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 28, 2011, 07:53:49 PM
16.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 28, 2011, 08:16:59 PM
Are you still keeping a running overall total?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 28, 2011, 09:10:36 PM
indeed
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on January 28, 2011, 10:15:08 PM
Based on the attendance in my theater tonight, I think I probably under guessed, but who really knows.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on January 30, 2011, 02:45:15 PM
estimate: $15,005,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on January 30, 2011, 02:47:01 PM
A lot lower than I had imagined. I blame it on Winter X-Games Weekend :p
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 01, 2011, 02:56:07 PM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 3

                          The Rite - $14.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      15      0.2      98.65%   
   Beavermoose      14.6      0.2      98.65%   
   Corndog      14.2      0.6      95.95%   
   ¡Keith!      16.9      2.1      85.81%   
   matt tmw      17.5      2.7      81.76%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       12      2.8      81.08%   
   FLYmeatwad      18.2      3.4      77.03%   
   Bill Thompson      11      3.8      74.32%   
   1SO      18.8      4      72.97%   
   Noke      NG      14.8      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      92.46%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      89.82%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      88.26%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose      83.17%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      81.19%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   matt tmw      80.15%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       68.13%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      61.75%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      54.59% (81.88%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Corndog      53.64% (80.46%)      -   

Overall, strongest week we've ever had!



This week, SPELUNKING IN 3D!!!

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/sanctum_poster.jpg)

Edit: arrows .gifs properly synched to movement.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 01, 2011, 03:30:43 PM
$13.2 Mil. For various reasons unknown.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on February 01, 2011, 03:34:15 PM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 3

                          The Rite - $14.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      15      0.2      98.65%   

(http://api.ning.com/files/p4X2daBpOEXkVFqpXVCzmQcZI1wRdRhiNd4*1h8yE9s1H*59087cdjhF4RrAj1WcdinGVRhR7Sj0OB5hYXiZh*rjZgWfxQPz/Sup_Dog.jpg)



I'm going to stick with the gameplan and keep betting 15M.  8)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on February 01, 2011, 03:37:02 PM
14 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 01, 2011, 03:48:49 PM
I can't wait to guess for Never Say Never.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 01, 2011, 03:50:46 PM
is there any doubt?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 01, 2011, 03:54:05 PM
I can't wait to guess for Never Say Never.

I'm definitely going to see that. lol. seriously tho.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 01, 2011, 04:23:38 PM
I can't wait to guess for Never Say Never.

I'm definitely going to see that. lol. seriously tho.

the student body at Cinci clamoring for a review before deciding to give into Bieber Fever?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on February 01, 2011, 05:01:35 PM
betting 15M.  8)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 01, 2011, 07:21:53 PM
14.6 Mil
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 2

             No Strings Attached - $19.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Beavermoose      14.6      5.1      74.11%   
   
:(
14.6
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 3

                          The Rite - $14.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Beavermoose      14.6      0.2      98.65%   
   
8)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 01, 2011, 07:41:03 PM
I can't wait to guess for Never Say Never.

I'm definitely going to see that. lol. seriously tho.

the student body at Cinci clamoring for a review before deciding to give into Bieber Fever?

I give the people what they want. I am actually planning to write an article for thereelists concerning the release of Never Say Never though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on February 02, 2011, 02:34:59 PM
14.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on February 02, 2011, 02:38:41 PM
14.95
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 02, 2011, 05:22:33 PM
Has there been much advertising for sanctum?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on February 02, 2011, 05:33:50 PM
I've seen a fair bit, yeah.

It's always "JAMES CAMERON PRESENTS.... the NEXT big 3d must-see adventure!"
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 04, 2011, 02:02:26 PM
$10.45M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 04, 2011, 02:33:21 PM
17.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 04, 2011, 03:47:51 PM
Superbowl Sunday!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 04, 2011, 03:51:49 PM
12.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 04, 2011, 04:03:12 PM
Superbowl Sunday!
Oh, right. I should have taken that into account.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on February 04, 2011, 06:42:58 PM
Can anyone join? $11.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 04, 2011, 07:06:50 PM
11.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 06, 2011, 12:24:36 PM
BOM says: 9.22M$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 06, 2011, 12:26:17 PM
Damn, was thinking about going around 9 but it seemed too low.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 07, 2011, 09:02:54 AM
wow, even with IMAX and 3D it couldn't break double figures... cave diving just isn't as fresh as it used to be.  Thanks a lot Ralston!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 08, 2011, 10:27:59 AM
Can anyone join? $11.7M

YES!

Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 4

                          Sanctum - $9.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      10.45      0.95      90.00%   
   Beavermoose      11.1      1.6      83.16%   
   Thor      11.7      2.2      76.84%   
   ¡Keith!      12.2      2.7      71.58%   
   Corndog      13.2      3.7      61.05%   
   Bill Thompson      14      4.5      52.63%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       14.5      5      47.37%   
   1SO      14.95      5.45      42.63%   
   Noke      15      5.5      42.11%   
   smirnoff      15      5.5      42.11%   
   matt tmw      17.5      8      15.79%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   FLYmeatwad      89.87%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      87.24%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      83.17%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      76.72%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      71.55%      -   
   matt tmw      64.06%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       62.94%      -   
   Bill Thompson      59.47%      -   
   Corndog      55.49% (73.99%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      51.47% (68.62%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Thor      19.21% (76.84%)      -   

FLY retakes the lead!



This week: can't stop, won't stop, catch the FEVER! baby, baby, baby

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/bieber3d_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 08, 2011, 10:31:53 AM
FYI, this years superbowl was watched by more than 1/2 of all Americans at some point and is now the highest rated TV program of all time - eat it Cameron.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 08, 2011, 11:05:49 AM
$15.8 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on February 08, 2011, 11:38:54 AM
15M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on February 08, 2011, 12:02:29 PM
Justin Bieber was born in 1994
He's 16 years old
Miley Cyrus opened at 31 million

so... doing the math  ... carry the 'y'

$236 million

oh, wait. Forgot the decimal point.

$23 . 6 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on February 08, 2011, 01:40:42 PM
28M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 08, 2011, 01:42:15 PM
Justin Bieber was born in 1994
He's 16 years old
Miley Cyrus opened at 31 million

so... doing the math  ... carry the 'y'

$236 million

oh, wait. Forgot the decimal point.

$23 . 6 million

JoBros bombed hard though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 08, 2011, 02:26:50 PM
Let's put it this way. I did not see the Miley one in theaters, I did see the JoBros one on the big screen, I'll be paying for the Bieber one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on February 08, 2011, 02:33:52 PM
22 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on February 09, 2011, 12:10:21 AM
Dang. Straight into last place.

I will go for $21m on Bieber
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on February 09, 2011, 12:15:42 AM
Heh. Can I get in on this?
Did any of the organizers respond to this?
No :(

20 on Bieber.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 09, 2011, 12:46:16 AM
Welcome to the game T!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 09, 2011, 12:48:10 AM
Dang. Straight into last place.

yeah, cuz you missed the first 3 weeks.  there's a full score reset every six picks.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 09, 2011, 08:31:13 AM
28.4Mil
Bieber Fever to the max.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on February 09, 2011, 04:39:59 PM
28.4Mil
Bieber Fever to the max.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 11, 2011, 04:10:19 PM
26.2M

Baby, baby, baby oh.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 11, 2011, 08:36:09 PM
I'll g0 27.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 11, 2011, 09:38:14 PM
Based on the crowds at the theater tonight, I think I underestimated Bieber Fever.

I guessed it would be lower since it was competing with Just Go With It, The Eagle, and Gnomeo and Juliet.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 12, 2011, 08:17:46 AM
Bieber beats Sandler on Friday (Finke's est):

1. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never 3D (Paramount) NEW [3,105 Theaters]
Friday $12.5M, Estimated Weekend $28M
 
2. Just Go With It (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,548 Theaters]
Friday $10M, Estimated Weekend $30M
 
3. Gnomeo and Juliet (Disney) NEW [2,994 Theaters]
Friday $5.8M, Estimated Weekend $22M
 
4. Eagle (Focus Features) NEW [2,296 Theaters] 
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $8.5M
 
5. The Roommate (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [2,534 Theaters]
Friday $2.4M (-62%), Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $25.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 12, 2011, 08:34:11 AM
Damn, knew I should have went higher. Go Biebs!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 12, 2011, 01:12:33 PM
Damn, knew I should have went higher. Go Biebs!

Its very likely its more frontloaded than she's predicting
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 13, 2011, 11:53:41 PM
Damn, knew I should have went higher. Go Biebs!

Its very likely its more frontloaded than she's predicting

so much for that:

Weekend Est:
2 N Justin Bieber: Never Say Never    Par. $30,260,000    
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 14, 2011, 09:23:20 AM
The Fever at its finest.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 14, 2011, 03:46:26 PM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 5

   Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $29.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Beavermoose      28.4      1.1      96.27%   
   Noke      28.4      1.1      96.27%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       28      1.5      94.92%   
   ¡Keith!      27.5      2      93.22%   
   FLYmeatwad      26.2      3.3      88.81%   
   1SO      23.6      5.9      80.00%   
   Bill Thompson      22      7.5      74.58%   
   Thor      21      8.5      71.19%   
   Tequila      20      9.5      67.80%   
   Corndog      15.8      13.7      53.56%   
   smirnoff      15      14.5      50.85%   
   matt tmw      NG      29.5      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   FLYmeatwad      89.66%      -   
   ¡Keith!      88.44%      -   
   Beavermoose      85.79%      -   
   1SO      73.24%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      71.55%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       69.33%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      62.49%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Noke      60.43% (75.53%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Corndog      55.11% (68.88%)      -   
   matt tmw      51.25% (64.06%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Thor      29.61% (74.01%)      -   
   Tequila      13.56% (67.80%)      -   

Margins narrow! Final week of this game to decide everything!



This week: DreamWorks SKG and Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures in association with Michael Bay and Steven Spielberg present...

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/iamnumberfour_poster.jpg)

This is a 4-Day Holiday Weekend you are predicting instead of the usual 3-day.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 14, 2011, 03:52:23 PM
Oops, I forgot to play.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 14, 2011, 03:54:13 PM
you just hate Bieber.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 14, 2011, 03:55:42 PM
But I so don't. I've got the fever, bad.

I've been editing Esperanza's Wikipedia page all day.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 14, 2011, 03:58:48 PM
 :D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on February 14, 2011, 04:03:06 PM
This weeks movie sounds better than it looks.

I'm saying 22.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on February 14, 2011, 04:10:16 PM
I Am Number Four - 16 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 14, 2011, 04:34:16 PM
CRAP, forgot that this is a 4-DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND   you are predicting!

Celebrate our Presidents by picking up a new car and that leather ottoman you've had your eye on!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on February 14, 2011, 04:41:18 PM
Wait, do people get off for both those days?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 14, 2011, 07:53:52 PM
I am Number Four - $18.8 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on February 15, 2011, 01:05:42 AM
Yes! Not last. Suck it, Tequila.

And #4 will earn about $25m, all of it undeserved.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on February 16, 2011, 09:11:23 AM
Boo!
27.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 16, 2011, 09:12:02 AM
26.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on February 16, 2011, 09:29:24 AM
26.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on February 16, 2011, 09:40:00 AM
2 4 . 4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on February 16, 2011, 01:25:57 PM
30M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 17, 2011, 08:51:28 AM
'Noke stop stealing guesses.  >:(

IAM#4
28.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 18, 2011, 08:52:46 AM
$35.3 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 18, 2011, 03:58:47 PM
32.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 19, 2011, 10:55:51 AM
poo, finke says:

2. I Am Number Four (DreamWorks/Disney) NEW [3,043 Theaters]
Friday $6M-$6.8M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $20M-$24M

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 19, 2011, 11:01:34 AM
Golly, what happened there? Thought a $30M opening was basically guaranteed based on the pre-guess research I did.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 19, 2011, 11:07:28 AM
I am Number Four - $18.8 mil

Shoot, I forgot about the 4 day. If I'da taken that into consideration my guess would be pretty good I suspect.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 19, 2011, 11:31:53 AM
Hopefully the good word of mouth will help. ::)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 20, 2011, 04:42:47 PM
BOM 3-day:
1 N Unknown WB $21,770,000 - 3,043 - $7,154 $21,770,000 $30 1
2 N I Am Number Four BV $19,500,000 - 3,154 - $6,183 $19,500,000 $60 1
3 3 Gnomeo and Juliet BV $19,400,000 -23.5% 3,014 +20 $6,437 $50,421,000 - 2
4 1 Just Go With It Sony $18,200,000 -40.4% 3,548 - $5,130 $60,756,000 $80 2
5 N Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son Fox $17,000,000 - 2,821 - $6,026 $17,000,000 $32 1
6 2 Justin Bieber: Never Say Never Par. $13,600,000 -53.9% 3,118 +13 $4,362 $48,473,000 $13 2
7 6 The King's Speech Wein. $6,566,000 -9.2% 2,086 -177 $3,148 $103,278,000 $15 13
8 5 The Roommate SGem $4,100,000 -49.5% 2,160 -374 $1,898 $32,694,000 $16 3
9 4 The Eagle Focus $3,559,000 -59.0% 2,296 - $1,550 $15,041,000 $25 2
10 7 No Strings Attached Par. $3,120,000 -46.3% 1,966 -790 $1,587 $66,033,000 $25 5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 20, 2011, 06:59:55 PM
ouch
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 20, 2011, 09:19:24 PM
Taken 3 is gonna be the best.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 23, 2011, 10:42:03 AM
Craptastic Winter Game (2011) - Week 6 (FINAL!)

              I Am Number Four - $22.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      22.2      0.6      97.37%   
   1SO      24.4      1.6      92.98%   
   Thor      25      2.2      90.35%   
   matt tmw      26.5      3.7      83.77%   
   Noke      26.5      3.7      83.77%   
   Corndog      18.8      4      82.46%   
   Tequila      17      5.8      74.56%   
   Beavermoose      28.7      5.9      74.12%   
   Bill Thompson      16      6.8      70.18%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       30      7.2      68.42%   
   ¡Keith!      32.1      9.3      59.21%   
   FLYmeatwad      35.3      12.5      45.18%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Beavermoose      83.84%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      83.57%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      82.24%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      76.53%      -   
   smirnoff      75.85%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       69.18%      -   
   Noke      64.32% (77.18%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      63.77%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Corndog      59.66% (71.60%)      -   
   matt tmw      56.67% (68.00%)      -   
   Thor      39.73% (79.46%)      -   
   Tequila      23.73% (71.18%)      -   

FLY and I tanked on #4 and Beavermoose vaults up two spots for the win in the closest finish yet!

Stay tuned for the slate for the next game!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 23, 2011, 10:55:19 AM
Right, reset time:

The Toon Time 6 week session looks kinda like this:

Feb 25-27
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/driveangry_poster.jpg)

Mar 4-6
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/rango_poster.jpg)

Mar 11-13
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/marsneedsmoms_poster.jpg)

Mar 18-20
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/paul_poster.jpg)

Mar 25-27
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/suckerpunch_poster.jpg)

April 1-3
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/ihop_poster.jpg)



So submit your guess for Drive Angry 3D! When Cage gets animated, you know it's gonna be awesome.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on February 23, 2011, 11:03:38 AM
Well done Beavermoose.

22.2M for Drive Angry
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 23, 2011, 11:19:37 AM
Nice job Beavermoose.

I'm never going to win this stupid game  >:(
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 23, 2011, 12:17:04 PM
Average accuracy since I started keeping the score (w/ total number of entered weeks):

¡Keith!82.38%  22
1SO68.74%  22
Beavermoose67.60%  16
Bill Thompson60.37%  22
Corndog71.60%  5
dallegre58.20%  11
Dave the Necrobumper49.49%  21
FLYmeatwad79.11%  19
GothamCity15116.18%  1
matt tmw70.04%  21
Melvil60.09%  9
Noke70.69%  21
smirnoff68.96%  18
Tequila71.18%  2
Thor79.46%  3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 23, 2011, 02:10:02 PM
Damn, those forgotten weeks killed me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on February 23, 2011, 02:14:22 PM
Damn I am appalling at this. He we go again: 14.3M for Mr Cage
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 23, 2011, 03:00:19 PM
Damn, those forgotten weeks killed me.

that's only yr accuracy for the weeks you actually guessed.  unless you mean they killed you in terms of winning any individual session in which case "definitely" would be the proper response.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on February 23, 2011, 05:29:30 PM
Drive Angry - 17 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 23, 2011, 07:47:06 PM
Drive Angry - $26.7 mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 23, 2011, 08:08:21 PM
I won! OMG!!!!!
nananana
hey hey hey gooodbye!
 :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 23, 2011, 08:12:31 PM
Drive Angry - $26.7 mil.

I change my mind, $20.6 Mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on February 23, 2011, 09:50:29 PM
Oscar weekend. I'll go $18.3M.

Also, I would clearly have smoked you all if I had been playing from the start.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on February 23, 2011, 10:04:04 PM
1 9 . 7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 25, 2011, 12:01:22 PM
$10.9 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 25, 2011, 12:56:43 PM
I won! OMG!!!!!
nananana
hey hey hey gooodbye!
 :)


Hey, no cutting and running!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 25, 2011, 01:11:53 PM
Drive Angry: 21.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 25, 2011, 01:16:54 PM
Drive Angry 3D: 17.7M$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on February 25, 2011, 06:36:15 PM
16.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 25, 2011, 09:17:58 PM
right, Season of the Witch:  $10,612,375

I'll go 9.7 given that no one goes to the movies during the Oscars.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on February 26, 2011, 12:04:49 PM
We're going to clean up this round, iKeith!.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on February 26, 2011, 02:00:15 PM
holy shit...

Friday est: $1,640,000

thats good for 9th place and it will struggle for 5m for the weekend... we gonna have a lot of negative % :-\

Scrap this weekend and start fresh next?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on February 26, 2011, 02:09:10 PM
I can't believe that. Amazing. I am going to see it tonight haha. Nic Cage looks amazing ridiculous once again, I'm in.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on February 28, 2011, 01:07:00 PM
Scrap this weekend and start fresh next?
Drive Angry 3D (2011)    $5.13M

Yes plz. :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on February 28, 2011, 01:39:07 PM
Scrap this weekend and start fresh next?

No, I got the third best guess
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on February 28, 2011, 02:08:38 PM
I say we keep it.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on February 28, 2011, 05:01:44 PM
I say we keep it.

Yah.

My strategy of missing this week is paying off.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 01, 2011, 10:50:22 AM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 1

                  Drive Angry 3D - $5.2 Million(!)

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      9.7      4.5      13.46%   
   Noke      NG      5.2      0.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      10.9      5.7      -9.62%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       14.3      9.1      -75.00%   
   Tequila      16.5      11.3      -117.31%   
   Bill Thompson      17      11.8      -126.92%   
   Beavermoose      17.7      12.5      -140.38%   
   Thor      18.3      13.1      -151.92%   
   1SO      19.7      14.5      -178.85%   
   Corndog      20.6      15.4      -196.15%   
   matt tmw      21.5      16.3      -213.46%   
   smirnoff      22.2      17      -226.92%   



LOL! now to figure out the proper punishment for Noke.

Mar 4-6
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/rango_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 01, 2011, 10:55:38 AM
Yowza!

I'm going 27.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on March 01, 2011, 11:00:21 AM
Dub Deuces. $22 Mil.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 01, 2011, 11:04:13 AM
I didn't do so bad. Go FLY!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 01, 2011, 11:14:23 AM
 :D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 01, 2011, 11:46:11 AM
Rango: 46M$
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on March 01, 2011, 12:38:29 PM
LOL! now to figure out the proper punishment for Noke.

Not cool.

The rango badnwagon seems to be going pretty quickly, so I'd say about 32 mill.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 01, 2011, 02:14:07 PM
$ 5 2 . 5  million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: roricb on March 01, 2011, 02:33:55 PM
35 mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 01, 2011, 02:38:06 PM
welcome to the game roricb!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on March 01, 2011, 02:51:04 PM
$40m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on March 01, 2011, 08:25:05 PM
41 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on March 02, 2011, 02:45:37 PM
35.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 02, 2011, 03:22:31 PM
30
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 04, 2011, 04:01:53 PM
Hmmm, same weekend last year:

Alice In Wonderland: $116,101,023, 6th biggest opening of all time.  (This is still as shocking today as it was a year ago)

Still that was live action + Burton is much more of a name than Verbinski.  Also 3D was really hot at the time and you had the IMAX cash.

$45.6m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 04, 2011, 04:26:59 PM
FLY & thor - whenever yr done watching Poetry/The Interrupters (for the 16th time).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on March 04, 2011, 06:12:44 PM
$63m.

(and I've only watched Interrupters twice... But will be watching it again this weekend!)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 04, 2011, 07:56:46 PM
Sorry about that, thought I'd be home much earlier.

$44.9M

But yeah, still way proud of Alice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 05, 2011, 04:29:22 PM
1   RANGO 3,917 $9,750,000 - / $2,489 $9,750,000 / 1

this weakness trend is frustrating.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 06, 2011, 07:49:11 PM
Wait, wait, wait. As in $9M?  :o
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on March 06, 2011, 10:31:31 PM
that was just Friday estimate FLY
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 06, 2011, 11:13:08 PM
yeah, full weekend est:

1. Rango   $38,000,000
2. The Adjustment Bureau   $20,945,000
3. Beastly   $10,115,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 07, 2011, 09:00:56 AM
Not so bad. I need to look at dates of posts  :P

EDIT: It would also appear that I was one of the few people to have seen Take Me Home Tonight, which is odd because the theater I was at with my friend was abnormally full.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 09, 2011, 11:38:44 PM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 1

                        Rango - $38.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Tequila      40      1.9      95.01%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       35.3      2.8      92.65%   
   Bill Thompson      41      2.9      92.39%   
   roricb      35      3.1      91.86%   
   Noke      32      6.1      83.99%   
   FLYmeatwad      44.9      6.8      82.15%   
   ¡Keith!      45.6      7.5      80.31%   
   Beavermoose      46      7.9      79.27%   
   matt tmw      30      8.1      78.74%   
   smirnoff      27.2      10.9      71.39%   
   1SO      52.5      14.4      62.20%   
   Corndog      20.6      17.5      54.07%   
   Thor      63      24.9      34.65%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      46.89%      -   
   roricb      45.93%      -   
   Noke      41.99%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      36.27%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       8.83%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Tequila      -11.15%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      -17.27%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      -30.56%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      -58.32%      -   
   Thor      -58.64%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   matt tmw      -67.36%      -   
   Corndog      -71.04%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      -77.77%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



roricb & Noke benefit greatly from skipping the Cage

Mar 11-13
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/marsneedsmoms_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on March 10, 2011, 12:59:17 AM
Mars Needs Moms - 11 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 10, 2011, 06:45:18 AM
26Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Tequila on March 10, 2011, 07:49:24 AM
16.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 10, 2011, 08:00:18 AM
14.9M!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 10, 2011, 09:11:28 AM
19.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 10, 2011, 09:28:23 AM
Mars Needs Moms - 15.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on March 10, 2011, 09:32:40 AM
$20.6 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on March 10, 2011, 11:10:52 AM
17.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on March 10, 2011, 02:41:15 PM
$13.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 11, 2011, 04:01:33 PM
don't think Disney will strike it rich twice in two months with what looks to be more mediocre moviemaking.  also wonder if fatigue is setting in for parents yet after Rango & Gnomeo (not to mentions the title will kill any cross-over appeal to teens)?  Mars feels more like Battle for Terra, Space Chimps, Astro Boy and Planet 51 than Wall-E, Monster's vs. Aliens or even Meet the Robinsons.

gonna go 12.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on March 11, 2011, 04:04:31 PM
yah, 13 million sounds good.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on March 11, 2011, 05:32:42 PM
14.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 11, 2011, 05:56:46 PM
Shit almost forgot. Give me $11.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 12, 2011, 03:29:23 PM
this weakness trend is frustrating.

Quote from: Entertainment Weekly
At the other end of the galaxy, though, was Disney’s Mars Needs Moms. The $150 million 3-D animated film, about a young boy whose mother gets kidnapped by Martians, barely levitated with $1.7 million on Friday. Even with its 3-D surcharges and premium pricing at 211 IMAX theaters, the PG-rated movie is headed for a weekend debut of only $7 million.

 :D  :D  :D

EDIT: roricb is going to end up winning this round by not playing  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 12, 2011, 11:38:21 PM
yeah, this may end up being the biggest bomb in th history of hollywood.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 12, 2011, 11:50:26 PM
yeah, this may end up being the biggest bomb in th history of hollywood.
Might reach Pluto Nash, but going to have to work hard to best Town & Country.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 13, 2011, 02:38:56 PM
Cost 150M! They're screwed.

I thought the animation looked pretty nifty. Anyone here going to watch it?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 13, 2011, 02:39:39 PM
Eventually I probably will. Not in theaters and not before Rango.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 14, 2011, 09:25:34 AM
yeah, this may end up being the biggest bomb in th history of hollywood.
Might reach Pluto Nash, but going to have to work hard to best Town & Country.

heh, you have them switched around, Nash is a bigger bomb than T&C

The Adventures of Pluto Nash
Budget: 120,000,000
World Wide Gross: 7,103,973
Net Loss: -112,896,027
(Recouping 5.92%)

Town & Country
Budget: 105,000,000
Gross: 10,372,291
Loss: -94,627,709
(Recouping 9.88%)

It will probably best T&C but not Nash
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 15, 2011, 11:56:34 AM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 4

                           Paul - $13.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      11.2      1.8      86.15%   
   FLYmeatwad      15      2      84.62%   
   ¡Keith!      10.1      2.9      77.69%   
   Noke      16      3      76.92%   
   Thor      9.2      3.8      70.77%   
   roricb      9      4      69.23%   
   Antares      8.5      4.5      65.38%   
   smirnoff      20      7      46.15%   
   matt tmw      25      12      7.69%   
   Tequila      NG      13      0.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       NG      13      0.00%   
   1SO      NG      13      0.00%   
   Corndog      NG      13      0.00%   
   Beavermoose      34      21      -61.54%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   FLYmeatwad      46.90%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      46.21%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      35.43% (47.25%)      -   
   roricb      22.97% (91.86%)      -   
   Bill Thompson      20.74%      -   
   Antares      17.97% (35.95%)      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       7.35%      -   
   Tequila      -13.54% (-18.06%)      -   
   matt tmw      -22.53%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      -27.91%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Thor      -28.23% (-37.64%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      -40.95%      -   
   Corndog      -60.16% (-80.21%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose      -74.87%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



The attrition rate is climbing.  First lead change of the game this weeka s FLY moves into the top slot.

Mar 25-27
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/suckerpunch_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 15, 2011, 12:00:11 PM
25M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Corndog on March 15, 2011, 01:39:06 PM
I quit.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 15, 2011, 01:48:13 PM
(http://www.clker.com/cliparts/c/a/3/5/12641394061358166516Smiley_green_alien_cry.svg.thumb.png)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on March 15, 2011, 03:07:53 PM
10.1 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on March 15, 2011, 03:20:52 PM
is it the opening weekend?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 15, 2011, 03:28:33 PM
Paul - 9

America doesn't care for those accents.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 15, 2011, 03:50:12 PM
is it the opening weekend?

it is (we got it a bit later)

also the Seth Roganizing makes up for the accent no?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 15, 2011, 03:58:19 PM
also the Seth Roganizing makes up for the accent no?
Maybe but his pic isn't on the poster.

But I've been wrong in this game before.  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on March 15, 2011, 08:56:18 PM
Ha, that's right, I know potentially crappy box office animation when I see it!  :D

As for Paul,

16 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 16, 2011, 12:38:16 AM
11.2 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on March 16, 2011, 09:42:36 AM
20
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 16, 2011, 10:31:28 AM
34$Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on March 16, 2011, 04:56:55 PM
8.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 16, 2011, 08:55:49 PM
Huge differences in guesses. This round will be dank.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 18, 2011, 11:15:17 AM
$15M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 18, 2011, 03:22:28 PM
9.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 18, 2011, 03:33:12 PM
As usual, ¡K! copies me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 18, 2011, 05:59:32 PM
As usual, ¡K! copies me.

not quite, yours was like "Ding ding ding dingy ding-ding.' mine goes, "Ding ding ding ding dingy ding-ding."
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 18, 2011, 11:47:22 PM
HA!

FRIDAY 6:30 PM: It's going to be a wild and wooly weekend, guys and gals. Right now anyone predicting with any certainty the Top 5 order of finish for the top grossing North American movies is either a) The World's Greatest Psychic, or b) none of my box office gurus, or c) not me. It's a ridiculously close horse race between adult fare newcomers Limitless (Virgin/Relativity), The Lincoln Lawyer* (Lionsgate) whose movie tickets were deeply discounted through a Groupon promotion underwritten by the studio, Paul (Working Title/Universal), and holdovers Battle: Los Angeles (Sony Pictures), and Rango (Paramount). I can report that Hollywood doesn't expect any of today's opening pics to reach $20M. Instead most of the Top 5 will be huddled in a mediocre muddle somewhere between $13M-$15M with perhaps Battle: LA pushing to $16M if its drop isn't too much more than -50% from last weekend's debut. Several studios in competition today think their movies will surge in tonight's late shows despite Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul already looking bunched around $5.2M-$5.3M.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 19, 2011, 12:17:35 AM
Here's the thing. Paul ain't no Adventureland, and it sure ain't no Superbad, but it's still dank.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Thor on March 19, 2011, 01:15:34 AM
Is it too late to offer $13.3M for Paul?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 19, 2011, 03:02:11 AM
heh... kinda.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 21, 2011, 12:35:24 AM
huh?

1 N LIMITLESS Rela. $19,000,000 - 2,756 - $6,894 $19,000,000 1
2 2 RANGO Par. $15,315,000 -32.2% 3,843 -80 $3,985 $92,577,000 3
3 1 BATTLE: LOS ANGELES Sony $14,600,000 -59.0% 3,417 - $4,273 $60,602,000 2
4 N THE LINCOLN LAWYER LGF $13,400,000 - 2,707 - $4,950 $13,400,000 1
5 N PAUL Uni. $13,155,000 - 2,802 - $4,695 $13,155,000 1

slump over?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 24, 2011, 01:14:22 PM
So, um, yeah, Sucker Punch?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 24, 2011, 02:23:15 PM
If we're doing Sucker Punch, I'm going with $32 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 24, 2011, 02:40:04 PM
I'm saying 28.9M SuckerPunch
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on March 24, 2011, 03:09:03 PM
If we do Sucker Punch, I say 30 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 24, 2011, 03:44:38 PM
45Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on March 24, 2011, 04:08:40 PM
29.5M for Sucker Punch
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on March 24, 2011, 06:01:43 PM
33M for Sucker Punch
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 24, 2011, 06:29:12 PM
Sucker Punch: 38.5 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 25, 2011, 01:53:20 AM
sorry, we are doing sucker punch. tentatively i'm saying 18.5

will update the standings tomorrow.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on March 25, 2011, 01:06:30 PM
I say 30 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 25, 2011, 02:29:07 PM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 4

                           Paul - $13.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   1SO      11.2      1.8      86.15%   
   FLYmeatwad      15      2      84.62%   
   Antares      10.1      2.9      77.69%   
   Bill Thompson      16      3      76.92%   
   ¡Keith!      9.2      3.8      70.77%   
   matt tmw      9      4      69.23%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       8.5      4.5      65.38%   
   Noke      20      7      46.15%   
   smirnoff      25      12      7.69%   
   Corndog      NG      13      0.00%   
   roricb      NG      13      0.00%   
   Tequila      NG      13      0.00%   
   Thor      NG      13      0.00%   
   Beavermoose      34      21      -61.54%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   FLYmeatwad      46.90%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      46.21%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      35.43% (47.25%)      -   
   roricb      22.97% (91.86%)      -   
   Bill Thompson      20.74%      -   
   Antares      17.97% (35.95%)      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       7.35%      -   
   Tequila      -13.54% (-18.06%)      -   
   matt tmw      -22.53%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      -27.91%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Thor      -28.23% (-37.64%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      -40.95%      -   
   Corndog      -60.16% (-80.21%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Beavermoose      -74.87%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



The attrition rate is climbing.  First lead change of the game this weeka s FLY moves into the top slot.

Mar 25-27
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/suckerpunch_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 25, 2011, 02:36:36 PM
Wait, I didn't guess 25 on Paul, did I? 
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 25, 2011, 02:40:21 PM
whoops, forgot to copy the name column.  fixed.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 25, 2011, 02:48:10 PM
Phew, thanks.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 25, 2011, 04:00:42 PM
nudge it up a tad, 19.1 (better than Kick-Ass and Scott Pilgrim but still...)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 25, 2011, 07:24:58 PM
Give me about 18.5M if it's not too late.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 25, 2011, 07:34:02 PM
I'm trying to get to -100%.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 25, 2011, 10:57:47 PM
FRIDAY 4:45 PM: Based on very early box office, Warner Bros' Sucker Punch from Zack Snyder (3,033 theaters) is looking to open for $7.5 million in North America Friday and may get to $8M. Fox's Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (3,167 theaters) may debut with $6M for the day. So far, based on early grosses, Hollywood think both films will be neck-and-neck starting at $20M and maybe even around low $20sM as Wimpy Kid 2 gains momentum from Saturday kiddie matinees. More later...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 25, 2011, 11:49:45 PM
This, slightly, bodes well for FLY. More like Hack Snyder, am I right?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 27, 2011, 07:24:08 PM
Early estimates are saying you're spot on, iKeith!. I'm never going to win one of these damn rounds.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 28, 2011, 03:17:03 PM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 5

                 Sucker Punch - $19.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      19.1      0      100.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      18.5      0.6      96.86%   
   smirnoff      28.9      9.8      48.69%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       29.5      10.4      45.55%   
   Bill Thompson      30      10.9      42.93%   
   Noke      30      10.9      42.93%   
   1SO      32      12.9      32.46%   
   Antares      33      13.9      27.23%   
   Corndog      NG      19.1      0.00%   
   roricb      NG      19.1      0.00%   
   Tequila      NG      19.1      0.00%   
   Thor      NG      19.1      0.00%   
   matt tmw      38.5      19.4      -1.57%   
   Beavermoose      45      25.9      -35.60%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      56.97%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      56.89%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Noke      36.93% (46.17%)      -   
   Bill Thompson      25.18%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Antares      19.82% (33.04%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   roricb      18.37% (91.86%)      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       14.99%      -   
   Tequila      -10.84% (-18.06%)      -   
   1SO      -15.84%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      -18.34%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Thor      -22.59% (-37.64%)      -   
   smirnoff      -23.02%      -   
   Corndog      -48.13% (-80.21%)      -   
   Beavermoose      -67.01%      -   



I take back the lead based on a perfect week!  Now if only this session were another month longer, I could get the whole total to a respectable level.  Only .08% seperates the top two slots going into the (blessedly) final week of this session.  Hop to it!

Mar 25-27
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/ihop_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 28, 2011, 03:22:18 PM
90Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 28, 2011, 03:28:55 PM
lol.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on March 28, 2011, 03:32:54 PM
90Mil

If you want the negative 100% you have to go higher. This film is like the anti-Grindhouse.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 28, 2011, 03:36:38 PM
90Mil

If you want the negative 100% you have to go higher. This film is like the anti-Grindhouse.

Hmmm right.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on March 28, 2011, 04:00:36 PM
$25 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on March 28, 2011, 04:01:41 PM
Hop?

8.9m
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on March 29, 2011, 08:13:11 AM
Hop - 6 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on March 29, 2011, 08:39:07 AM
wow, what is going on here, 6 to 90?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on March 29, 2011, 09:05:44 AM
Hop: 19.5 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on March 29, 2011, 01:05:23 PM
Change my guess to 123.45Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on March 29, 2011, 03:01:32 PM
Hop: 23.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on March 31, 2011, 07:10:35 PM
Hop- 16.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 01, 2011, 08:56:43 AM
21.4M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 01, 2011, 04:09:05 PM
heh I really should give the same guess,

23.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 01, 2011, 04:45:28 PM
heh I really should give the same guess,

 :P

It's a strategy that I would not hold against you.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 'Noke on April 01, 2011, 05:14:01 PM
15 mill
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 02, 2011, 03:04:25 AM
Quote
I am still on medical leave. And in pain. And understandably cranky. But I asked Universal to forward me early box office numbers today and those overpaid slackers are too self-absorbed to care about the one filmmaker, Illumination Entertainment's Chris Meledandri, who is singlehandedly rescuing that bomb factory. If Universal doesn't make a big deal about Hop overperforming today, why should I? (Note to Steve Burke: Fire the studio's entire executive, marketing, and PR staff. They're useless...) Guess would be $10 million for today and $35M for the weekend from 3,579 theaters, which is more than the $30M Universal predicted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, Summit Entertainment is conservatively estimating Friday's grosses for Duncan Jones' direction of Jake Gyllenhaal in the thriller Source Code at $5.2M for a $15 million weekend from 2,961 theaters. Once again, Jake can't open a movie to $20M, but at least this isn't a complete disaster. Meanwhile, FilmDistrict's horror flick Insidious (2,408 theaters) was produced for only $1 million and also earned millions in international pre-sales. By afternoon, the film had already made back its negative cost many times over. While many are trying to mimic this low-budget/wide release model, the Paranormal Activity team of Oren Peli and Jason Blum keep doing it with engrossing marketing, too.

I really dislike Finke...
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 02, 2011, 09:32:18 AM
Well, there go the Good Guys, settling for second again, always coming up short. Just like the real Texans. I can't believe this film is making that much money, I should have went with my initial guess that it would be the anti-Grinhouse, and not a film that far exceeds what a similarly targeted film made a week earlier.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 03, 2011, 01:08:07 PM
Even more. Hop takes 1st with an estimated $38.1M (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/04/box-office-hop-source-code-insidious.html). Also, the biggest opening for a film this year. Crazy. I should learn to never underestimate the lure of Easter.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on April 03, 2011, 02:49:52 PM
Thank God for Smirnoff's trivia game, because I suck at this.  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 04, 2011, 11:14:16 AM
Some of the early tracking really dropped the ball on Hop.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 06, 2011, 07:45:14 PM
???
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 07, 2011, 12:18:32 AM
sorry, moving in + shows + classes + drinking have left me with little forum time this week - update tomorrow.

till then, the new 6 week pre-summer Xplosion starts with:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/yourhighness_poster.jpg)

guess away (should bee a tight race for #2 this week.)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 07, 2011, 12:22:51 AM
Your Highness - 24 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 07, 2011, 12:54:45 AM
14.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 07, 2011, 06:44:11 AM
22 Million.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 07, 2011, 07:22:16 AM
Your Highness: 10 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 07, 2011, 03:14:28 PM
12M for Your Highness
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on April 07, 2011, 06:14:33 PM
13.1 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 08, 2011, 10:12:28 AM
Give me a sold $14.2M...ounces of kush!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 08, 2011, 11:04:36 AM
Toon Time (2011) - Week 6 (FINAL)

                             Hop - $37.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   1SO      25      12.5      66.67%   
   ¡Keith!      23.7      13.8      63.20%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       23.5      14      62.67%   
   FLYmeatwad      21.4      16.1      57.07%   
   matt tmw      19.5      18      52.00%   
   Antares      16.4      21.1      43.73%   
   Noke      15      22.5      40.00%   
   smirnoff      8.9      28.6      23.73%   
   Bill Thompson      6      31.5      16.00%   
   Corndog            37.5      0.00%   
   roricb            37.5      0.00%   
   Tequila            37.5      0.00%   
   Thor            37.5      0.00%   
   Beavermoose      123.45      85.95      -129.20%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      58.01%      #Winning!   
   FLYmeatwad      56.92%      -   
   Noke      37.44%      -   
   Antares      23.81%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      23.65%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       22.94%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   roricb      15.31%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      -2.09%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      -6.62%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Tequila      -9.03%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      -15.23%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Thor      -18.82%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Corndog      -40.11%      -   
   Beavermoose      -77.38%      -   



Finally a week where almost (Hi Beaver!) everyone UNDERestimated an opening!  Whatever.  No one with better than 60% on the session - ugh.  So onto the next round... PRE-SUMMER AWESOME Session!

Apr 8 - 10
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/yourhighness_poster.jpg)

Apr 15 - 17
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/scream4_poster.jpg)

Apr 22 - 25 (4 Day Easter Weekend)
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/madeasbighappyfamily_poster.jpg)

Apr 29 - May 1
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/fastfive_poster.jpg)

May 6 - 8
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/thor_poster.jpg)

May 13 - 15

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/priest07_poster.jpg) or (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/wiigapatow_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 08, 2011, 11:09:03 AM
Second again. Always the BRIDES MAID(S), never the (Danny Mc)Bride.

I think I'm seeing Fast Five in IMAX.

Congrats iKeith!.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 08, 2011, 04:00:33 PM
11.3
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 08, 2011, 04:17:55 PM
RoundWinner
1matt tmw
2¡Keith!
3matt tmw
4¡Keith!
51SO
6¡Keith!
7Beavermoose
8¡Keith!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 09, 2011, 09:38:17 AM
evenly consistent.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 10, 2011, 06:29:24 PM
Knew I should have went lower. Looking like $9.5M for the weekend :no:
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 11, 2011, 09:34:41 AM
evenly consistent.
You have indeed established a pattern.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 11, 2011, 10:03:55 AM
evenly consistent.
You have indeed established a pattern.

argyle?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 11, 2011, 10:07:31 AM
You do love those Norwegian curlers.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 12, 2011, 07:12:03 PM
Terrible way to start this set of films, FLY :no:
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 14, 2011, 03:03:12 PM
iKeith!, if you tell me how to format the leader boards/which formulas you use to calculate the maths I can update boards until you have extra time.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 15, 2011, 10:10:39 AM
Assuming this week is a wash, but in case it is not... $37.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on April 15, 2011, 10:13:30 AM
24.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 15, 2011, 10:18:50 AM
What are we betting on?

30M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on April 15, 2011, 10:21:32 AM
Scream 4

The list is on the previous page.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 15, 2011, 10:26:07 AM
$28.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 15, 2011, 10:46:01 AM
Scream 4: 34.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 15, 2011, 02:33:54 PM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 1

                   Your Highness - $9.4 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      10      0.6      93.62%   
   ¡Keith!      11.3      1.9      79.79%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       12      2.6      72.34%   
   Antares      13.1      3.7      60.64%   
   FLYmeatwad      14.2      4.8      48.94%   
   1SO      14.8      5.4      42.55%   
   smirnoff      22      12.6      -34.04%   
   Bill Thompson      24      14.6      -55.32%   



Sorry, totes forgot to update this week, seems like Matt kinda pwned us in week one - way to smoke out the weakness.



Apr 15 - 17
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/scream4_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 15, 2011, 02:38:06 PM
Woot!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 15, 2011, 03:49:24 PM
38.4
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 15, 2011, 04:29:14 PM
Scream 4 - $31M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 15, 2011, 10:11:53 PM
Scream 4 - 22 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 18, 2011, 10:49:54 AM
Quote
2. Scream 4 (Miramax/Dimension/Weinstein Co) NEW [3,305 Theaters]
Friday: $8.2M, Saturday $6.6M, Weekend $19.2M, Global $49.2M

crash, burn.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 18, 2011, 11:04:35 AM
Yeah, it's too bad since it's a pretty great film. I'm just shocked that Rio hasn't taken on a perplexing wave of HtTYD hysteria around the boards. Not even the same perplexing love that CWACoM or Kung Fu Panda garnered either. Guess it's the Will.i.am factor.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 18, 2011, 11:07:13 AM
How so? Even with the Ad budget, pre-DVD sales I'd say a WW gross of nearly $49 million is rather respectable. It's already in the Top 25 WW for the year and is about to pass The Lincoln Lawyer in just 1 weekend. Your Highness is a far bigger crash/burn than Scream 4.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 19, 2011, 11:48:47 AM
well, dunno what the budget was or how much of the foreign market was sold off.  the corrected WW number is $36,624,902.  Its a hell of a PR blwo though as the US tracking was anywhere between high 20s and 48 and Scream 3 opened to 35 (inflation adjusted 52) in 2000.  Budget of 40 + 20m for ads, it may turn in a slight profit when DVD comes in but the numbers are pretty clear that people didn't really want to see this.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 19, 2011, 12:17:38 PM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 2

                     Scre4m - $18.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      22      3.3      82.35%   
   Antares      24.1      5.4      71.12%   
   1SO      28.7      10      46.52%   
   smirnoff      30      11.3      39.57%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       31      12.3      34.22%   
   matt tmw      34.5      15.8      15.51%   
   FLYmeatwad      37.7      19      -1.60%   
   ¡Keith!      38.4      19.7      -5.35%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Antares      65.88%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      54.56%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       53.28%      -   
   1SO      44.54%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   ¡Keith!      37.22%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      23.67%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      13.52%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      2.76%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Last weekend was up over all from 2010 (The first weekend of 2011 to be able to make that claim) - but last winter/spring was kinda crazy strong with Avatar underlying other surprise (and some no to surprising) openers like How To Train Your Dragon, Shutter Island, Alice In Wonderland, Clash of the Titans, Valentine's Day, Percy Jackson, The Wolfman, Dear John, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Bounty Hunter, The Crazies, Cop Out, ect.

Still, the glory belongs to Rio as opposed to the 4th Scream entrant which failed to live up to even the most modest estimates.  Perhapse we will get a big hit outta the next Madea?

Apr 22 - 25
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/madeasbighappyfamily_poster.jpg)

Remember this is a 4 DAY Holiday Weekend - you are guessing Friday thru Monday's North American Gross.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 19, 2011, 01:26:40 PM
Norbit did 34M in its first weekend. I'm going with 36M for Madea.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 19, 2011, 03:04:33 PM
Madea - 27 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Antares on April 19, 2011, 03:11:16 PM
29.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 19, 2011, 03:14:02 PM
Madea: 22.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 21, 2011, 04:52:52 PM
28M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 22, 2011, 09:47:12 AM
36.5M, though I fear I may be underestimating Monday. Are schools and places usually closed for the Monday after Easter?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 22, 2011, 10:35:12 AM
28.8 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 22, 2011, 04:04:17 PM
40.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 22, 2011, 04:04:47 PM
Remember this is a 4 DAY Holiday Weekend - you are guessing Friday thru Monday's North American Gross.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 22, 2011, 04:15:33 PM
Bump me up to $38.5M if it's not too late.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 23, 2011, 12:56:56 PM
Rio to stay on top. Tyler Perry projected to take in 25-26 M in the 3 day (http://www.hitfix.com/articles/box-office-robert-pattinson-cant-beat-madea-on-friday-as-rio-stays-no-1)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 27, 2011, 03:17:12 PM
$27,248,826

A lot of people came real close to this one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 28, 2011, 10:04:51 AM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 3

    Madea's Big Happy Family - $27.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      27      0.2      99.26%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       28      0.8      97.06%   
   1SO      28.8      1.6      94.12%   
   Antares      29.8      2.6      90.44%   
   matt tmw      22.5      4.7      82.72%   
   smirnoff      36      8.8      67.65%   
   FLYmeatwad      38.5      11.3      58.46%   
   ¡Keith!      40.1      12.9      52.57%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Antares      74.07%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       67.87%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      63.95%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      61.06%      -   
   ¡Keith!      42.34%      -   
   Bill Thompson      42.10%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      35.26%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      24.39%      -   



Bill makes it two in a row!  Madea fell slightly below expectations - tracking in the low 30s and came in well below Madea Goes to Jail's 41m opening in Febuary of 2009.  Jail though, had the benefit of a far less crowded marketplace and the whole Ernest tie-in. 

This week... we go FAST!

Apr 29 - May 1
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/fastfive_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on April 28, 2011, 10:21:16 AM
I remain awesome, well except for that one terrible week where I was off by like 75 million. This week,

Fast Five - 23 MIl
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on April 28, 2011, 10:29:21 AM
60 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on April 28, 2011, 11:09:08 AM
FF: 35M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on April 28, 2011, 11:39:05 AM
47M

Watching the trailer, some of those car scenes look really good. Like they used real cars and not cgi. And the selection of cars is much classier.

The rest looks bad. I might see it though despite hating the original and not watch any of the others.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on April 28, 2011, 03:29:47 PM
80M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 29, 2011, 10:25:42 AM
80.61M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on April 29, 2011, 04:41:17 PM
78.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 29, 2011, 04:46:39 PM
Any word on what Midnight numbers were yet?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on April 30, 2011, 09:30:24 AM
Quote
Universal’s Fast Five is racing towards a $79 million to $81 million weekend opening after earning an estimated $33 million or $34 million on Friday — the biggest showing of the year by far.

Dank (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/friday-box-office-universals-fast-183767).

EDIT: Looking like $78 is the number. I need to start underestimating by .5-1 M instead of overestimating.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 01, 2011, 11:35:27 AM
BOM Tweeted:

Actual estimates:
 
1 FAST FIVE 83.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 01, 2011, 11:37:27 AM
Golly. Guess I should have over estimated more, and cross referenced sources  :P Go Team FLY!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 01, 2011, 11:50:46 AM
I remain awesome, well except for that one terrible week where I was off by like 75 million. This week,

Fast Five - 23 MIl
It's okay Bill, I still think you're pretty awesome.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 01, 2011, 08:33:37 PM
I remain awesome, well except for that one terrible week where I was off by like 75 million. This week,

Fast Five - 23 MIl
It's okay Bill, I still think you're pretty awesome.

My ability to underestimate Vin Diesel knows no bounds. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 03, 2011, 12:27:59 PM
So, Thor is totally going to make a lot of money, huh?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 05, 2011, 09:22:54 AM
update later today but guessing for this weekend will be on this viking adaptation
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/thor_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 05, 2011, 09:31:34 AM
$85.1 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 05, 2011, 01:39:50 PM
Thor - 100Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 05, 2011, 01:55:08 PM
Thor: 80M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 05, 2011, 04:40:44 PM
87M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 05, 2011, 04:47:51 PM
79.1M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 06, 2011, 09:46:29 AM
Nintendo $64M. Or should I say Nintendo Sixty-THOR?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 06, 2011, 04:52:06 PM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 4

                    Fast Five - $86.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      80.61      5.59      93.52%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       80      6.2      92.81%   
   ¡Keith!      78.5      7.7      91.07%   
   1SO      60      26.2      69.61%   
   smirnoff      47      39.2      54.52%   
   matt tmw      35      51.2      40.60%   
   Bill Thompson      23      63.2      26.68%   
   Antares      NG      86.2      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Dave the Necrobumper       74.11%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      63.20%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      58.11%      -   
   Antares      55.55%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   ¡Keith!      54.52%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      49.83%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      38.25%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      31.93%      -   



Our leader has disappeared!  In Antares absence, Dave takes over the top spot with two really solid weeks in a row.  Fast Five set a new April record (besting the previous record held by the previous Fast film) and gained 3m from estimates to actuals.  Was it The Rock?  Was it Jordana Brewster? Was it IMAX? Was it the fact that the critics were finally driven into submission and just said CINECAST! it, we are irrelevant for this type of flick?  Who know, but hopefully you stuck around for the stinger set-up for Fast Six or Six Fast or The F6st and the Fury or whatever dumb ass name they come up with to match a conceit straight outta All My Children.

This week is, of course, comic book: the weekend.  Ever since Sony launched Spiderman on the first full frame of May in 2002 (trying to get some of the magic that launched the two Mummy films in the slot), this weekend has been pwned by larger than life Superheroes and mostly overshadowed the previous key launch vehicle that was Memorial Day weekend.  Spidey grabbed 115 million in 02,  X-Men 2 followed with 86 million in 03,  Brett Ratner's X-Men earned 103 million in 06, Spidey 3 destroyed records with it's 151 million bow in 07, Iron Man sauntered off with 99 million in 08.  Even that damned Wolverine flick cashed in for 85 million in 09 (note, this was also the same weekend Jackman's dreadful Van Helsing tried to reclaim the weekend for the creature features in 2004) and last year Iron Man 2 launched to 128 million all on the same weekend. 

Now, it's THOR's turn.

May 6 - May 8
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/thor_poster.jpg)


(for a laugh - check out what happened in 2005 (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=18&p=.htm))
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 06, 2011, 04:55:26 PM
67.6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 06, 2011, 05:07:13 PM
Hey, the wait was worth it. Those were two great paragraphs, iKeith!.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 06, 2011, 11:37:00 PM
Finke is saying:

Thor (Marvel/Disney/Paramount) NEW [3,955 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $65M

Fast Five (Universal) Week 2
Estimated Weekend $40M (-55%)

Jumping The Broom (TriStar/Sony) NEW [2,034 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $16M

Something Borrowed (Warner Bros) NEW [2,904 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $13M

Rio (Blue Sky Studio/Fox) Week 4
Estimated Weekend $10M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 06, 2011, 11:59:35 PM
So close to Sixty-THOR!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 08, 2011, 09:14:21 AM
Last I heard, it's gotten closer to 66. Still, good prediction, FLY! We're back on track!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 11, 2011, 03:47:15 PM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 5

                          THOR - $65.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      64      1.7      97.41%   
   ¡Keith!      67.6      1.9      97.11%   
   smirnoff      79.1      13.4      79.60%   
   matt tmw      80      14.3      78.23%   
   1SO      85.1      19.4      70.47%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       87      21.3      67.58%   
   Bill Thompson      100      34.3      47.79%   
   Antares      NG      65.7      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Dave the Necrobumper       72.80%      -   
   1SO      64.65%      -   
   ¡Keith!      63.04%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      62.14%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      59.34%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Antares      44.44%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      41.46%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      40.15%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



How awesome was THOR? Seriously though, how? I didn't see it.  So yeah THOR came in almost exactly where it should've - slightly higher than early week tracking and slightly below the buzzed up Friday predictions.  It was by far the biggest open of Kenneth Branagh's career, besting 94's Mary Shelley's Frankenstein.  It became the biggest open for Anthony Hopkins as well, and while no Iron Man, it did best The Hulk(s).  The problem Avenger character’s films have opened to 62 and 55 respectively.  The 65m weekend ranks 6th amongst 3D starts.

Not much change at the top, though Dave slips a bit.  But from 3 on down there's a whole swap party!  We are heading into the final week of pre-summer fun though so the game is still Dave's to lose with a more than eight percentage point lead.  This weekend is the inevitable afterbirth.  Sandwiched in-between the Thor opening and the return of Jack Sparrow we have two of the lowest profile releases in this slot since 2007 when 28 Weeks Later, Georgia Rule and Delta Farce failed to drum up any interest at all.  Priest extends Paul Bettany's confusing choice of lackluster material after a promising start, while Judd Apatow finally does one for the ladies with Bridesmaids - ya know, like The Hangover, but funny.

I'll let Rotten Tomatoes decide which one we guess on...

(http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/7310/openingv.png)

May 13 - May 15
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/wiigapatow_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on May 11, 2011, 03:56:06 PM
28.9M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 11, 2011, 05:19:53 PM
17 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 11, 2011, 09:31:37 PM
Bridesmaids - 24 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 11, 2011, 10:38:56 PM
Bridesmaids: 22 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 13, 2011, 05:32:33 AM
20M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 13, 2011, 12:56:03 PM
11.7M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 13, 2011, 05:04:11 PM
17.8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 17, 2011, 02:57:09 PM
Pre-Summer Awesome Session (2011) - Week 6 - FINAL

                   Bridesmaids - $26.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      24      2.2      91.60%   
   smirnoff      28.9      28.9      89.69%   
   matt tmw      22      4.2      83.97%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       20      6.2      76.34%   
   ¡Keith!      17.8      8.4      67.94%   
   1SO      17      9.2      64.89%   
   FLYmeatwad      11.7      14.5      44.66%   
   Antares      NG      26.2      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   Dave the Necrobumper       73.39%      -   
   matt tmw      65.78%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      64.69%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   ¡Keith!      63.85%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   FLYmeatwad      56.90%      -   
   smirnoff      49.50%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      48.73%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Antares      37.03%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)



Congrats to Dave on his first (and well deserved) win! Think this is the biggest margin of victory since the first session I took over (which wasn’t a full session anyway).  Bridesmaids jumped up almost 2m from estimates and exceeded every tracking number I saw (some coming in as low as 11m).  Clear indication of an underserved market aided by positive reviews.  Its also the highest open ever in a first feature from an SNL Alum.  Previously, female gross-out comedies had been something of a box office pariah.  The previous, female-lead entry in the series was an epic failure known as The Sweetest Thing.  It seems as though Bridesmaids was sold better (gross out, but with a softer side) and its also possible that finally males are more willing to accept that their objects of desire can be as disgusting as them... I blame Snookie.

So now the summer fun begins.  Have your popcorn at the ready and get set for sequelitis!

May 20 - May 22
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/piratesofthecaribbean4_poster.jpg)

May 26 - May 30 - Memorial Day 5-Day
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/hangover2_poster.jpg)

May 26 - May 30 - Memorial Day 5-Day
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/kungfupanda2_poster.jpg)

June 3 - June 5
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/xmenfirstclass_poster.jpg)

June 10 - June 12
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/super8_poster.jpg)

June 17 - June 20
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/mrpopperspenguins_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 17, 2011, 03:46:22 PM
its also possible that finally males are more willing to accept that their objects of desire can be as disgusting as them... I blame Snookie.
;D

Nice job, Dave.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 17, 2011, 06:56:54 PM
I'm like Andy Roddick up in this piece, winning all the little titles and failing at the big ones...

Pirates - 70 Mil
Title: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 17, 2011, 10:21:44 PM
7 6 . 5 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 17, 2011, 10:29:17 PM
I'm like Andy Roddick up in this piece, winning all the little titles and failing at the big ones...


nice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 18, 2011, 05:09:34 AM
Congrats to Dave on his first (and well deserved) win! Think this is the biggest margin of victory since the first session I took over (which wasn’t a full session anyway).

Well I like to thank iKeith, filmspotting, the academy, my wife and family and also my dog and cat. Further the kids who were playing down the street and the cow that jumped over the moon........(5 hours later).......and finally my maternal health nurse. Thank you all, sniff, sniff, I am just so choked up.

Any my guess for Pirates 4: $110M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 19, 2011, 09:18:30 AM
Additional boxoffice based games plug!

http://www.ez1productions.com/ (http://www.ez1productions.com/)

The summer boxoffice game has just started but you can still join in, its a summer long game where you select which flicks will perform best (relative to their price) over their first 3 weekends.  Films fluctuate in price like a stock market as well so there are opportunities to make additional cash.

This weekend is also the start of the movieline game - ComingSoon.Net's Weekend Warrior will set 5 betting lines per weekend and you need to pick the winners.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on May 19, 2011, 11:22:11 AM
115Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 19, 2011, 11:30:00 AM
Pirates 4: 100M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 20, 2011, 10:00:16 AM
105M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 20, 2011, 04:00:00 PM
92.3

87.9
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 22, 2011, 02:42:31 PM
92.3

87.9

How did you do that?
Estimated Weekend is 90.1 which means you went from 2.2 over to 2.2 under.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 22, 2011, 11:04:26 PM
HA!

Hoping a bit of an overestimate obvi.

1 N PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES BV $90,100,000 - 4,155 - $21,685 $90,100,000 1
2 2 BRIDESMAIDS Uni. $21,058,000 -19.8% 2,937 +19 $7,170 $59,518,000 2
3 1 THOR Par. $15,500,000 -55.3% 3,924 -39 $3,950 $145,406,000 3
4 3 FAST FIVE Uni. $10,631,000 -48.0% 3,622 -171 $2,935 $186,219,000 4
5 5 RIO Fox $4,650,000 -43.8% 2,593 -336 $1,793 $131,647,000 6
6 4 PRIEST SGem $4,600,000 -69.2% 2,864 - $1,606 $23,683,000 2

Priest got slaughtered!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 23, 2011, 05:12:21 PM
Summer Session 1 (2011) - Week 1

Pirates of the Carribean: On stranger Tides - $90.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      87.9      2.3      97.45%   
   matt tmw      100      9.8      89.14%   
   1SO      76.5      13.7      84.81%   
   FLYmeatwad      105      14.8      83.59%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       110      19.8      78.05%   
   Bill Thompson      70      20.2      77.61%   
   Beavermoose      115      24.8      72.51%   



Nice, everyone starts out the summer on some strong guessing. The Pirates franchise continued to fall from its peak despite the unloading of some supposed dead weight.  Industry opening weekend surveys noted that Cruz was a big part of the draw so one assumes she'll get a hefty raise for part 5.  The fourth voyage cleared its outragous production cost of $250 million this weekend in foreign markets with an extra 6m to spare, something that's not likely to happen in the domestic market.  That's actually a record for biggest non-US opening.  Note to world: We have better taste than you... and we can prove it.  The trendline in the Pirates franchise is interesting to see:

Pirates % of Gross (Domestic) % of Gross (Foreign)
1 46.7% 53.3%
2 39.7% 60.3%
3 32.1% 67.9%
4 26.0% 74.0%

This weekend will be the first of the Summer Holidays in the game(s). 
YOU'LL NEED TO SUPPLY 5-DAY GUESSES FOR BOTH KUNG-FU PANDA 2 and THE HANGOVER 2. 

                          May 26 - May 30
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/kungfupanda2_poster.jpg) & (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/hangover2_poster.jpg)

Guesses are due by some point Thursday evening!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 23, 2011, 05:33:21 PM
Kung Fu Panda 2 - 60 MIL

The Hangover II - 42 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 26, 2011, 10:55:24 AM
Reminder - due today(ish)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 26, 2011, 11:09:57 AM
Kung Fu Panda 2: 110M
The Hangover 2: 120M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 26, 2011, 11:20:14 AM
Kung Fu Panda 2 - 85 MIL

The Hangover II - 42 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 26, 2011, 11:22:05 AM
Is that your 5-day Hangover guess, 1SO?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on May 26, 2011, 11:56:50 AM
It is now.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 26, 2011, 03:48:42 PM
Hangover 2 - 90M
Panda 2 - 135M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 26, 2011, 03:51:55 PM
Dave, do you have kids?

HO2: 128.4 132.4
KP2: 91.7


Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on May 26, 2011, 05:16:39 PM
Hangover - $125.81 M
Panda - $98.32 M

EDIT: 1SO, I think you may be in for a world of hurt.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 27, 2011, 12:27:32 AM
Hangover 2 made 10.4 million from last night's Midnights (and 10pm showings in Canada) - record for an R rated film.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 27, 2011, 10:58:21 AM
WB is reporting 31.66M for Hangover (including the midnights), 5.8m is the number for Panda on day 1... kids are still in school though.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 27, 2011, 03:17:03 PM
Dave, do you have kids?

HO2: 128.4 132.4
KP2: 91.7

Yes 1, 10 weeks old. Why?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 27, 2011, 03:21:58 PM
was wondering if the kids make people more aware of a flick and thus more likely to up its number... though at 10 weeks yr child is probably not getting slammed with ads for this one just yet ;)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on May 27, 2011, 03:34:03 PM
He is not getting slammed with ads, yet, but he has stopped my movie viewing, down to less than 1 a month. With my guesses, I looked at box office mojo and Panda 1 did 50% better than Hangover 1 in its opening weekend, so I matched that. I now realise I should have factored in Hangover grew big on word of mouth, so Hangover 2 should do relatively better this time. Oh well. Just looked at Thursdays estimates, oh dear, I am not going to do well this week.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 28, 2011, 12:24:01 PM
Friday from BOM:

1 THE HANGOVER PART II 30.0 61.6 (new)
2 KUNG FU PANDA 2 13.2 19.0 (new)

that a great bump for Hang2 given that 10.4 of its opening day were from midnights.

Matrix Reloaded grabbed $31.3 on its first friday so it likely won't claim the R-rated opening record.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 29, 2011, 11:10:47 AM
Finke's est:

1. The Hangover Part 2 (Legendary/Warner Bros) NEW [3,615 Theaters]
Thursday $31.6M, Friday $30M, Saturday $29M, 3-day Weekend $85M
Estimated 4-day Memorial Holiday $105, Estimated 5-Day Cume $137M
 
2. Kung Fu Panda 2 3D (DWA Animation/Paramount) NEW [3,925 Theaters]
Thursday $5.8M, Friday $13.1M, Saturday $18.5M, 3-Day Weekend $47.5M
Estimated 4-Day Memorial Holiday $62M, Estimated 5-Day Cume $68M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on May 31, 2011, 04:54:32 PM
Summer Session 1 (2011) - "Week" 2 & 3

            The Hangover II - $135.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      132.4      2.6      98.07%   
   FLYmeatwad      125.8      9.2      93.19%   
   matt tmw      120      15      88.89%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       90      45      66.67%   
   1SO      42      93      31.11%   
   Bill Thompson      42      93      31.11%   
   Beavermoose      NG      135      0.00%   


             Kung Fu Panda 2 - $66.7 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      60      6.7      89.96%   
   1SO      85      18.3      72.56%   
   ¡Keith!      91.7      25      62.52%   
   FLYmeatwad      98.3      31.6      52.62%   
   matt tmw      110      43.3      35.08%   
   Beavermoose      NG      66.7      0.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       135      68.3      -2.40%   


   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      86.01%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      76.47%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      71.04%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      66.22%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      62.83%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       47.44%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Beavermoose      24.17%      -   



Memorial day weekend has come and gone.  You can now socially wear white.  Sh-t went off this weekend, for real though.  This is the highest grossing Memorial Day weekend of all time and the 4th highest aggregate (top 12 films) weekend ever.  Opening on the Thursday (or a Wednesday evening) tends to diminish your weekend returns so Hangover 2’s comparability to other films is more difficult.  It didn’t take the top R-rated opening weekend or opening day away from The Matrix Reloaded, but ya know… it still made ton of cash.  The other weekends opener, Panda got ska-2-ooshed failing to open anywhere nearly as strongly as its predecessor.  3 years ago, Panda 1 opened to 60m over a non-holiday 3-day weekend.  This Panda’s  3-day total was a paltry 48m.  Oddly, both these films were marketed in the same terrible fashion… just more of what the audience ate up last time.  Seems the children are smarter than the adults.  Well, that or parents wanted to spend some cash outside on this beautiful weekend after sitting through Rango and Hop and Gnomeo AND Rio, but definitely NOT Hoodwinked 2 or Mars Needs Moms.

On another note, The Tree of Life pulled in $493,788 from just 4 theaters (2 NY / 2 LA) making it the 6,786th highest grossing film of all time!  This weekend, its back to just one flick.

June 3 - June 5
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/xmenfirstclass_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on May 31, 2011, 04:56:01 PM
X-Men - 60 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on May 31, 2011, 08:44:45 PM
making it the 6,786th highest grossing film of all time!
:D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Beavermoose on May 31, 2011, 09:41:43 PM
 :o I forgot to guess...
 :-\ See you next round
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 03, 2011, 08:01:16 AM
X-Men 80M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 03, 2011, 08:24:27 AM
X-Men:First Class: 68M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 03, 2011, 10:03:12 AM
66.8 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 03, 2011, 10:50:17 AM
70M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 03, 2011, 06:23:08 PM
68.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 05, 2011, 01:42:26 PM
BOM:

1 N X-MEN: FIRST CLASS $56,000,000 - 3,641 - $15,380 $56,000,000 1
2 1 THE HANGOVER PART II WB $32,445,000 -62.2% 3,615 - $8,975 $186,872,000 2
3 2 KUNG FU PANDA 2 P/DW $24,300,000 -49.0% 3,952 +27 $6,149 $100,440,000 2
4 3 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES BV $18,010,000 -54.8% 3,966 -198 $4,541 $190,257,000 3
5 4 BRIDESMAIDS Uni. $12,128,000 -26.7% 2,919 -39 $4,155 $107,255,000 4
6 5 THOR Par. $4,200,000 -55.9% 2,780 -516 $1,511 $169,073,000 5
7 6 FAST FIVE Uni. $3,244,000 -49.4% 2,237 -744 $1,450 $202,058,000 6
8 7 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS SPC $2,916,000 +51.1% 147 +89 $19,837 $6,943,000 3
9 9 JUMPING THE BROOM TriS $865,000 -52.6% 589 -350 $1,469 $35,927,000 5
10 8 SOMETHING BORROWED WB $835,000 -55.1% 688 -752 $1,214 $36,660,000 5

11 10 RIO Fox $750,000 -58.4% 691 -981 $1,085 $136,702,000 8
12 12 WATER FOR ELEPHANTS Fox $700,000 -35.6% 572 -222 $1,224 $55,739,000 7

13 15 THE TREE OF LIFE FoxS $621,000 +66.5% 20 +16 $31,050 $1,253,000 2
14 13 CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS IFC $394,000 -8.6% 123 +5 $3,203 $3,295,000 8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 05, 2011, 01:52:21 PM
Hmm, that's a rough one.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 09, 2011, 11:41:33 AM
Summer Session 1 (2011) - Week 4

             X-Men: First Class - $55.1 Million

           
   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   Bill Thompson      60      4.9      91.11%   
   1SO      66.8      11.7      78.77%   
   matt tmw      68      12.9      76.59%   
   ¡Keith!      68.2      13.1      76.23%   
   FLYmeatwad      70      14.9      72.96%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       80      24.9      54.81%   
   Beavermoose      NG      55.1      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      83.57%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      75.59%      -   
   Bill Thompson      72.44%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      72.42%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      66.81%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       49.28%      -   
   Beavermoose      18.13% (72.51%)      -   



Wolverine really was that bad... This weekend saw the effects of Gavin Hood and Brett Ratner's "legacy" overshadow a once venerable franchise.  Ok, that’s not really fair - there are plenty of other reasons why First Class faltered, taking a mere six hundred K more than the first installment (which opened in 11 years ago).  That’s some significant shrinkage (audience wise).  There weren't really any stars in this film to sell people on and the ads made it look like a bland storyless comic actioner.  There's also the question of Super Hero fatigue.  Green Lantern and Captain America might be able to save the world but a shield and a ring won’t provide much protection from a hostile audience, weary of powered-up panel protagonists. 

Speaking of super… lets get week 5 on!

June 10 - June 12
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/super8_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 09, 2011, 01:01:39 PM
Super 8 - 74 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 09, 2011, 01:35:03 PM
So Super 8 opens in IMAX and additional locations (300+ in total) today... dunno how this gonna be factored into the weekend.   :-\
 
 
http://www.super8-movie.com/sneak/ (http://www.super8-movie.com/sneak/)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 09, 2011, 01:40:11 PM
48 million


Fri. morning edit. I really should wait till the last minute more.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 09, 2011, 04:23:40 PM
78M - Super 8
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 09, 2011, 08:34:45 PM
So Super 8 opens in IMAX and additional locations (300+ in total) today... dunno how this gonna be factored into the weekend.   :-\
 
 
http://www.super8-movie.com/sneak/ (http://www.super8-movie.com/sneak/)

Yeah, saw that this morning. So dumb. We should just do Friday-Sunday as per usual, I reckon, if those numbers will be up. If not we should guess the release this weekend that matters...Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 10, 2011, 08:07:37 AM
32.5M for Team Elle's Super 8
6.1M for Judy Moody and the Diary of a NOT Whimpy Summer (Just for fun, for FLY).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 10, 2011, 08:14:39 AM
Super 8: 34.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 10, 2011, 04:02:59 PM
27.9

- looks like Mojo is displaying an estimate for Thursday so that gross will not count toward the 3 day weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 12, 2011, 04:50:42 PM
Looking like it was $37M for Team Elle.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 13, 2011, 09:16:19 AM
6.1M for Judy Moody and the Diary of a NOT Whimpy Summer (Just for fun, for FLY).

Ah, we should have made the change  :P
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 16, 2011, 11:04:54 AM
seems i've temporarilly misplaced my flash drive...  standings updated when its found.

Till then - the final weekend of Summer (Part 1) belongs to:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/mrpopperspenguins_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 16, 2011, 11:13:41 AM
Mr. Pooper's Pen-ah whatever, it has Jim Carrey so you're all going to pay to see this shit anyway.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 16, 2011, 01:38:02 PM
Mr. Popper's Penguins - 30 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 17, 2011, 11:01:27 AM
37 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 17, 2011, 12:28:11 PM
Mr. Popper's Penguins - 15 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 17, 2011, 01:00:16 PM
21.1 M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 17, 2011, 03:59:54 PM
19.7

Dave?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 20, 2011, 10:23:30 AM
While we're waiting on the actuals for this weekend...

Summer Session 1 (2011) - Week 5

                       Super 8 - $35.5 Million

           
   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   matt tmw      34.5      1      97.18%   
   FLYmeatwad      32.5      3      91.55%   
   ¡Keith!      27.9      7.6      78.59%   
   1SO      48      12.5      64.79%   
   Beavermoose      NG      35.5      0.00%   
   Bill Thompson      74      38.5      -8.45%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       78      42.5      -19.72%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      82.57%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      78.78%      -   
   matt tmw      77.38%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      66.41%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      56.27%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       35.48%      -   
   Beavermoose      14.50%      -   



From Mojo:
"Distributor Paramount Pictures' exit polling indicated that 71 percent of Super 8's audience was over 25 years old"

wow, guess they really did sell that nostalgia thing well.  For a flick with child stars to skew that old is surprising.  though it also would signal a nice leggy run at the box office as WOM spreads.  The second weekend's projected 40% fall would seem to back this up.  Buoyed by fathers day in its second weekend and the long 4th holiday in its, uh, 4th prospects look good for Super 8 despite a somewhat dissapointing open given the pedigree. 
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 20, 2011, 10:28:16 AM
Bam!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 20, 2011, 10:37:35 AM
Should have guessed lower for Mr. Popper's. Always the Bridesmaids, never the bride. One day I will win one of these!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 21, 2011, 06:45:51 AM
Blast missed last week. What is the film for this week?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 22, 2011, 11:14:47 AM
Summer Session 1 (2011) - Week 6

          Mr. Popper's Penguins - $18.5 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      19.7      1.2      93.51%   
   FLYmeatwad      21.1      2.6      85.95%   
   matt tmw      15      3.5      81.08%   
   Bill Thompson      30      11.5      37.84%   
   1SO      37      18.5      0.00%   
   Beavermoose      NG      18.5      0.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       NG      18.5      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      84.40%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      79.98%      -   
   matt tmw      77.99%      -   
   1SO      55.34%      -   
   Bill Thompson      53.19%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       29.57% (35.48%)      -   
   Beavermoose      12.08% (72.51%)      -   



RoundWinner
1matt tmw
2¡Keith!
3matt tmw
4¡Keith!
51SO
6¡Keith!
7Beavermoose
8¡Keith!
9Dave the Necrobumper
10¡Keith!

I really should just sit out the next round... not like i'm gonna win or anything.

Popper's was tracking alarmingly strong in the weeks leading up to its release... thank god people finally started watching those trailers.  Green Lantern continued the pattern of diminishing returns for superhero flicks in the current calendar year.  Super 8 however, held better than 60% of its opening gross which is especially good as it only has a 19 day window in IMAX houses before the Transformers 3 (also produced by Spielberg) behemoth knocks it from the lucrative upcharge screens.  And Fox Searchlight has once again shown why they are so dominant in the art-house distribution world as the slow expansion on Tree of Life added another million plus to its coffers and still remains over 10k per screen even after a months worth of play dates.

Ok, so, now that it’s officially summer* 

Summer Session 2 (2011):

June 24 - 26
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/cars2_poster.jpg)

June 29 - July 4 [6 Day Holiday Opening!]
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/transformers3_poster.jpg)

July 1 - July 4 [4 Day Holiday Opening!]
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/larrycrowne_poster.jpg)

July 8 - 10
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/horriblebosses_poster.jpg)

July 15 - 17
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/harrypotter72_poster.jpg)

July 22 - 24
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/captainamerica_poster.jpg)

*US Calendar
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 22, 2011, 11:32:22 AM
I really should just sit out the next round... not like i'm gonna win or anything.
lol - the pattern remains!  ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 22, 2011, 11:33:48 AM
Too bad we aren't guessing the opening for Monte Carlo :no:

Congrats, iKeith!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 22, 2011, 12:34:39 PM
Too bad we aren't guessing the opening for Monte Carlo :no:

Congrats, iKeith!

I did think about it, but that would be like a gift to you... best to keep this fair and balanced.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 22, 2011, 01:12:55 PM
I shall make a prediction ITT anyway. Those caps are for force, not just for abbreviation...IN. THIS. THREAD!

I'm still regretting not going to King of Prussia on Monday :no:
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 22, 2011, 03:53:41 PM
Cars 2 - 120 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 22, 2011, 04:21:26 PM
105M for Cars 2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 24, 2011, 07:46:10 AM
$62.9M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 24, 2011, 08:22:45 AM
Cars 2 - 69M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 24, 2011, 09:45:41 AM
63 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 24, 2011, 02:23:04 PM
63 million

haha, nice.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 24, 2011, 03:43:21 PM
I'll jump back in for this series. 73.5 Million!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 24, 2011, 03:49:53 PM
66.15
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 25, 2011, 12:47:26 PM
1 CARS 2 4,115 $25,700,000
2 BAD TEACHER 3,049 $12,100,000

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 27, 2011, 06:32:05 PM
66.15

Oh hot damn: Cars 2 $66,135,507
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 28, 2011, 08:40:59 AM
Just a reminder to all: Transformers 3 opens tonight at midnight, and we are supposed to be guessing its 6 Day Holiday Total. So yeah...get those guesses in!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on June 28, 2011, 09:40:03 AM
Transformers 3 - 130 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on June 28, 2011, 10:05:26 AM
You sure, Bill? Hangover 2 did $142 million in 6 days.

$ 1 8 3  M i l l i o n
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 28, 2011, 10:14:50 AM
Transformers 3: 230M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on June 28, 2011, 10:20:42 AM
T3: 199M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: edgar00 on June 28, 2011, 10:23:20 AM
A lot of movies that were supposed to open big have disappointed. I see that trend continuing with Transformers: 125 million in 6 days. (which is insane to call a disappointed, but you get what I mean).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 28, 2011, 10:46:49 AM
$138.89M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 28, 2011, 10:47:36 AM
Hangover 2 did $142 million in 6 days.

Helms > Bay
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 28, 2011, 12:00:00 PM
Summer Session 2 (2011) - Week 1

                    Cars 2 - $66.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      66.2      0.1      99.85%   
   matt tmw      69      2.9      95.61%   
   1SO      63      3.1      95.31%   
   FLYmeatwad      62.9      3.2      95.16%   
   smirnoff      73.5      7.4      88.80%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       105      38.9      41.15%   
   Bill Thompson      120      53.9      18.46%   


Pixar's latest effort opened to 6 million more than it's initial installment but given inflation that actually represents a dip in overall butts in seats.  Seems the albatross of being "the least favored Pixar film" certainly played into the reception of the sequal... though not nearly as much as it hurt say Pirates 4.  Little boys still love cars (53 percent male and 56 percent under 25 years old, 36 percent was age 11 and younger - according to exit polling.)  Families really are getting tired of ponying up for 3D as well - Mojo reports that 40% of Cars 2's opening came from 3D playdates.  "For perspective, Toy Story 3's 3D share was 60 percent (with 2,463 3D venues), while Up's was 52 percent (with only 1,534 3D venues)."  The 40% share was also less even than Pirates 4, Panda 2 or Green Lantern. 

When you muliply that 3D upcharge by four or more attendees, it really hurts the wallets of many families.  C2's 3D screen count was 2,508, its total count was 4,115 meaning that 61% of its screens were being actively avoided by parents with kids in tow.  There needs to be a real reason for the 3D it seems, for people to fork over the extra cash... and Michael Bay is screaming the reasons in your face!

This weekend we have 2 films:

June 29 - July 4 [6 Day Holiday Opening!]
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/transformers3_poster.jpg)

Guesses due tomorrow eve for this.  I know its playing at some locations at 9pm today.  If tuesday numbers are reported seperately they will not be included in the Wed-Mon total for the game.

Then the usual Friday guess is for:

July 1 - July 4 [4 Day Holiday Opening!]
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/larrycrowne_poster.jpg)

This is a 4 day open guess.

Cheers!

also - Hey Edgar!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 28, 2011, 12:12:07 PM
Hangover 2 did $142 million in 6 days.

Helms > Bay

And more people liked The Hangover than they did Trannies 2.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on June 28, 2011, 04:18:03 PM
Tran3 - 6 day - 167M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 28, 2011, 07:52:39 PM
So I can change my guess up until tomorrow evening?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 29, 2011, 01:10:16 PM
So I can change my guess up until tomorrow evening?

oui.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on June 29, 2011, 02:04:52 PM
Re-up me:

$180.52M

Let's go for broke this week, I guess. I'm getting conflicting information from all my usual sources.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 29, 2011, 03:28:58 PM
trouble with a totally effed up opening - 9pm 3D and IMAX screenings, 6 day open, 4 day holiday, ect - rought to gauge what the numbers mean.

164.4

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 29, 2011, 11:36:36 PM
Finke is saying & 37m OD and 200 possible for the 6 day... not sure what kinda math her people using to get to 200 but 150 is much more likely.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on June 30, 2011, 08:59:50 AM
150 is much more likely.
I'm gonna buy 80M worth of tickets so I can win this thing.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on June 30, 2011, 09:28:11 AM
150 is much more likely.
I'm gonna buy 80M worth of tickets so I can win this thing.

Bay would certainly split that with ya I think, The Beef may even pick up five or six 2D tickets to pitch in.  You should definitely tweet them the plan and see what they think.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 01, 2011, 08:33:30 AM
$15.23M for Larry Crowne
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 01, 2011, 10:13:54 AM
i'm gonna go 16.4 for Crowne
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 01, 2011, 10:14:40 AM
$15.23M for Larry Crowne

and what say you for MC?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 01, 2011, 10:17:27 AM
Larry Crowne: 17.5
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 01, 2011, 10:25:39 AM
$15.23M for Larry Crowne

and what say you for MC?

It has been running some really great counter-ads against Transformers on MTV, but realistically I don't think it makes too much. Ramona and Beezus did about 7 or 8 around this time last year, but that film also skewed younger. This one has Selena targeting a more overtly teenage crowd (and me), or perhaps even college students who want to relive The Lizzie McGuire Movie all over again.

Regardless, it's not licensed, those mall tours probably took sales away rather than generated interest for more, and as much as I love Selena, she doesn't have Miley's fame. The Last Song opened to about 16 million, Selena will have to do less, I would guess, and maybe drastically so. Let's say about 9.5, potentially breaking 10. I think I'm being too optimistic though, it doesn't seem to be tracking super great.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 01, 2011, 10:29:35 AM
$18.9 million - Larry Crowne
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 01, 2011, 05:44:22 PM
Edgar, Dave, Bill, noff?



July 1 - July 4 [4 Day Holiday Opening!]
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/larrycrowne_poster.jpg)

This is a 4 day open guess.

Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 01, 2011, 06:34:45 PM
17 Mil - Larry Crowne
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: edgar00 on July 01, 2011, 10:01:43 PM
16,5$

Roberts and Hanks can still draw a crowd, and I think adult film goers will find this a nice diversion while everybody else goes to see Transformers, but it won't do great seeing that it's been dropped smack in the midst of the blockbuster season. This just seems like something that should have come out in September or some other harmless month like that.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 02, 2011, 05:23:49 AM
15 for Larry, promise I have not looked up anything.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 04, 2011, 12:57:13 AM
Sites are projecting about 181 for Transformer 3 and 13 for Larry Crown. About 8 for Monte Carlo. A good week for FLY, overall.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 04, 2011, 08:21:30 PM
24.1M!

promise I have not looked up anything.

Same

I thought we were still on Transformers. Oops.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 08, 2011, 01:38:38 AM
Horrible Bosses - 23 million
Zookeeper - 27 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 08, 2011, 09:37:30 AM
28.2M for Horrible Bosses
17.8M for Zookeeper (though, I don't think we're guessing this one)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 08, 2011, 09:45:27 AM
Horrible Bosses: 25M
Zookeeper: 19M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 08, 2011, 10:19:11 AM
Summer Session 2 (2011) - Week 2 & 3

Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $175.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      180.52      5.32      96.96%   
   1SO      183      7.8      95.55%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       167      8.2      95.32%   
   ¡Keith!      164.4      10.8      93.84%   
   smirnoff      199      23.8      86.42%   
   Bill Thompson      130      45.2      74.20%   
   edgar00      125      50.2      71.35%   
   matt tmw      230      54.8      68.72%   



                  Larry Crowne - $16.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      16.4      0.3      98.14%   
   edgar00      16.5      0.4      97.52%   
   FLYmeatwad      15.23      0.87      94.60%   
   Bill Thompson      17      0.9      94.41%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       15      1.1      93.17%   
   matt tmw      17.5      1.4      91.30%   
   1SO      18.9      2.8      82.61%   
   smirnoff      24.1      8      50.31%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      97.27%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      95.57%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      91.16%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   matt tmw      85.21%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       76.55%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      75.18%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      62.36%      -   
   edgar00      56.29% (84.43%)      -   



Good chage FLY!  Tight race shaping up for this session.  Amazing how far Hanks and Roberts have fallen as draws.  Even as badly reviewed and marketed as Crowne was - 5 years ago this would've been a 25-30m opener on a 3 day weekend.  After Charlie Wilson's War and this I can't see much of a call for a 3rd teaming (did like CWW quite a bit though).

The latest installment of Transformers caught a solid weekend surge ahead of a rather tepid mid-week opening (why are they still doing midweek openings?)  Wasn't nearly as big as 2 but a big success nonetheless.  It passed the 200m mark on its 8th day in release (2 did it in 5).  If the film had opened on Friday, no doubt that this would've done triple digits for the 3-day.  Mojo reports that attendace for T3 was actually 15% behind the first in the series but that the 3D% was up quita a bit from the trend noted in last weeks update.  60% of the opening weekend cash came from 3D playdates.  Whether this was a result of Bay (and several reviews) insisting that 3D was the way to see this or because the 13-25 year old boys who are the target of the film are more willing to indulge in the higher ticket prices would be a nice question to have answered.

Oh, and Cars 2 just crumbled this weekend - falling an unheard of for Pixar 60%+ from its open and looking at this point to land as the lowest grossing Pixar film to date, with 32m to go to even catch A Bug's Life.

Finally Bridesmaids became the highest grossing Apatow produced pic over the weekend passing 150m and Knocked-Up's final numbers.

This weekend we Colin Farrell with a comb-over!

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/horriblebosses_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 08, 2011, 03:58:19 PM
27.0 (and i'm really hoping for a Kevin James bomb.)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 08, 2011, 04:00:18 PM
But there's a talking gorilla who idolizes T.G.I.Fridays! I know that place!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 08, 2011, 04:29:57 PM
Horrible Bosses 26.6M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 08, 2011, 04:37:05 PM
Horrible Bosses 27.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 08, 2011, 06:51:36 PM
Here's a more complete breakdown of my weekly guesses (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/07/box-office-battle-july-8th.html).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 08, 2011, 10:39:32 PM
Here's a more complete breakdown of my weekly guesses (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/07/box-office-battle-july-8th.html).
Neat. In story form.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 09, 2011, 07:21:15 AM
jawsome.  and way to get "shit" in there more than once!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 09, 2011, 09:25:03 AM
Good catch, I hardly even noticed that.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 09, 2011, 11:30:36 AM
Seems like Zookeeper is tracking about 23M, so I way undershot that one. Guess the pull did come back. Sources are telling me that Horrible Bosses is on pace for about 28M.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 09, 2011, 01:04:00 PM
Horrible Bosses - 23 million
Zookeeper - 27 million

Guess I should have reversed these.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 09, 2011, 08:25:01 PM
I've been camping, haven't read anything and I'm not sure if we're doing both of these or just one. Here's my guesses, completely understand if you don't accept them though,

Horrible Bosses - 20 MIL
The Zookeeper - 31 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 10, 2011, 06:45:33 PM
28.2M for Horrible Bosses
17.8M for Zookeeper (though, I don't think we're guessing this one)

Quote
The Warner Bros./New Line R-rated comedy "Horrible Bosses" opened solidly this weekend to $28.1 million, narrowly beating pre-release forecasts of around $25 million, according to studio estimates.

Don't know if there are official numbers, but still, make it dank, FLY, make it dank! (http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/sns-rt-filmm12cyrb01-20110710,0,1854565.story)

EDIT: Sadly, looks like Bad Teacher edged out Larry Crowne by about 3 million. Figured that LC would do better because Bosses would take away from BT's audience, but I think that film is also rated PG-13, which I didn't factor in, so I was 4/5 on my Top Five guesses :no:
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 11, 2011, 12:26:53 AM
1 1 TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON P/DW $47,025,000 -51.9% 4,088 - $11,503 $261,000,000 2
2 N HORRIBLE BOSSES WB (NL) $28,110,000 - 3,040 - $9,247 $28,110,000 1
3 N ZOOKEEPER Sony $21,000,000 - 3,482 - $6,031 $21,000,000 1
4 2 CARS 2 BV $15,209,000 -42.1% 3,990 -125 $3,812 $148,828,000 3
5 3 BAD TEACHER Sony $9,000,000 -38.0% 2,962 -87 $3,038 $78,757,000 3
6 4 LARRY CROWNE Uni. $6,264,000 -52.2% 2,976 +3 $2,105 $26,526,000 2
7 5 SUPER 8 Par. $4,825,000 -39.1% 2,292 -796 $2,105 $118,056,000 5
8 6 MONTE CARLO Fox $3,800,000 -49.0% 2,473 - $1,537 $16,125,000 2
9 7 GREEN LANTERN WB $3,125,000 -52.3% 2,015 -1,265 $1,551 $109,709,000 4
10 8 MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS Fox $2,850,000 -48.5% 1,996 -865 $1,428 $57,747,000 4

11 9 BRIDESMAIDS Uni. $2,762,000 -24.2% 1,102 -287 $2,506 $158,186,000 9
12 10 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS SPC $2,706,000 -24.4% 819 -39 $3,304 $38,651,000 8
13 11 X-MEN: FIRST CLASS Fox $1,475,000 -50.0% 847 -755 $1,741 $142,092,000 6
14 12 THE HANGOVER PART II WB $1,185,000 -50.5% 835 -733 $1,419 $250,804,000 7
15 13 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES BV $1,087,000 -50.4% 622 -851 $1,748 $236,283,000 8
16 14 KUNG FU PANDA 2 P/DW $860,000 -48.3% 650 -631 $1,323 $159,009,000 7

17 15 THE TREE OF LIFE FoxS $770,000 -27.9% 237 +9 $3,249 $8,991,000 7
N/A 32 A BETTER LIFE Sum. $314,000 +221.2% 153 +142 $2,052 $543,000 3
N/A N BEATS, RHYMES & LIFE: THE TRAVELS OF A TRIBE CALLED QUEST SPC $120,000 - 4 - $30,000 $120,000 1

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=27&p=.htm (http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=27&p=.htm)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 11, 2011, 11:14:40 AM
Hmm, Bad Teacher is rated R as well, not PG-13. I don't really know how it held on to the fifth spot then.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 11, 2011, 04:27:25 PM
BT is skewing more Female, HB (I assume) will skew much more male).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 13, 2011, 11:51:00 AM
143.32M for Potter

Here's the rationale, as well as my guess for Winnie the Pooh (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/07/box-office-battle-july-15th.html)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 13, 2011, 12:57:33 PM
139.6 million

And that's a conservative estimate.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 13, 2011, 01:18:16 PM
That's very conservative. According to Fandango yesterday, they had already sold $25 million in advanced tickets, most of them for midnight shows.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 13, 2011, 01:23:11 PM
Harry Potter: 150M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 13, 2011, 01:37:36 PM
190M!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 13, 2011, 02:15:56 PM
Harry Potter - 201 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 13, 2011, 02:55:17 PM
in 3 days?!?  I don't believe that's actually possible!

(Ref: TDK holds the record at $158m, New Moon holds the single day record at $73m)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 13, 2011, 02:58:38 PM
in 3 days?!?  I don't believe that's actually possible!

(Ref: TDK holds the record at $158m, New Moon holds the single day record at $73m)

I'm going over instead of under, and I usually just guess wildly anyways. :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 13, 2011, 03:07:19 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 13, 2011, 03:21:42 PM
HP7.2 now up to $32 million in advanced ticket sales. (http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/harry-potter-and-deathly-hallows-part-2-breaks-advance-tick-29057)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 13, 2011, 03:34:25 PM
HP: 190M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 13, 2011, 04:08:00 PM
Summer Session 2 (2011) - Week 4

                Horrible Bosses - $28.3 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   FLYmeatwad      28.2      0.1      99.65%   
   smirnoff      27.1      1.2      95.76%   
   ¡Keith!      27      1.3      95.41%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       26.6      1.7      93.99%   
   matt tmw      25      3.3      88.34%   
   1SO      23      5.3      81.27%   
   Bill Thompson      20      8.3      70.67%   
   edgar00      NG      28.3      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      96.81%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      96.59%      -   
   1SO      88.68%      -   
   matt tmw      85.99%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       80.91%      -   
   smirnoff      80.32%      -   
   Bill Thompson      64.43%      -   
   edgar00      42.22% (84.43%)      -   



So Close!  FLY has certainly committed himself to winning this game with great prognostications and blog updates to boot!

Trannies 3 is now the highest grossing film of the year.  Incase your keeping track its Transformers 3, then Hangover 2, Then Pirates 4, then Fast 5... and people wonder why they make so many sequels.  The guess film of the week, Horrible Bosses slotted in quite well just behind TF3 in a sign that is likely to thrill the makers of Friends with Benefits, The Change-Up, Our Idiot Brother and (not confirmed but likely) 30 Minutes or Less.  Unlike sequels, this years previous 4 R-Rated comedies are hits! 

Kevin James meanwhile saw his second film in a row underperform with $20m - much like The Dilemma which also failed to light-up the box-office.  Ponder this: Paul Blart was made for 26m and grabbed $146m domestic.  His most recent two films were made for a combined $150m (it doesn't show) and will struggle to get to 9 digits between them.  On another note, 52 percent of Zookeeper's audience was made up of parents with children... so who were the sad souls who saw this on dates? Still:

Dare To Dream (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V75HI6hgsao#ws)

Cars 2 righted the ship a bit in its 3 spin around the track, only slipping 42% from the previous week and should pass A Bugs Life pretty safely this weekend.  It will not however rise any higher on the Pixar depth chart with a 30m gap separating Bugs and the original Toy Story.

Finally Larry Crowne fell harder than Transformers did in week 2... ouch.

This weekend its POTTER!!!!!!!!!!

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/harrypotter72_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 15, 2011, 12:33:27 PM
This is crazy. (http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/final-harry-potter-shatters-midnight-box-office-record-435m-haul-29128)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 15, 2011, 12:44:28 PM
It doesn't surprise me. Given that most kids that have grown up with the series probably have jobs or perhaps are off school for the summer, they probably have the freedom to go to a midnight showing. Also, it's the last one, which I think mean a lot of people see it as the big special occasion to go all out for their last chance to see potter in theaters.

Also, IT's HARRY POTTER!>!> @! $OJADP!J

ZOMG!

Can't believe I'm waiting till Monday to see it. I should have my head checked.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: MartinTeller on July 15, 2011, 02:00:39 PM
Can't believe I'm waiting till Monday to see it. I should have my head checked.

I probably won't see it for a couple of weeks.  I want to see it with my wife, she's out of town right now.  And next weekend my dad will be visiting.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Sam the Cinema Snob on July 15, 2011, 02:05:45 PM
Can't believe I'm waiting till Monday to see it. I should have my head checked.

I probably won't see it for a couple of weeks.  I want to see it with my wife, she's out of town right now.  And next weekend my dad will be visiting.
Yea, I'm waiting for my sister because we saw the last three together and I want to see it for the first time with her.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 15, 2011, 04:12:43 PM
163.5

Still playing edgar?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FroHam X on July 16, 2011, 10:42:43 AM
Holy crap, you guys. (http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/final-harry-potter-shatters-midnight-box-office-record-435m-haul-29128)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 16, 2011, 01:09:28 PM
BOM:

1 HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 92.1 92.1 (new)

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-07-15&p=.htm (http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-07-15&p=.htm)

FYI:
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone's opening weekend: $90,294,621 (3,672 11/16/01)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets' opening weekend: $88,357,488 (3,682 11/15/02)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix's opening weekend: $77,108,414 (4,285 7/11/07)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince's opening weekend: $77,835,727 (4,325 7/15/09)

Holy crap, you guys. (http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/final-harry-potter-shatters-midnight-box-office-record-435m-haul-29128)

to be fair - i'm don't think it'll reach north of 190 - almost 1/2 that opening day came from the midnight crowd.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 17, 2011, 02:25:27 PM
Estimates:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $168,550,00
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 18, 2011, 11:31:52 AM
I guessed too early :no: Damn you, Pitchfork!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 18, 2011, 02:50:12 PM
My Pooh prediction was almost spot on, so that's dank.

Either way, with Transformers still doing business and Potter probably not slowing down, Captain America is pretty much boned, right?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: dheaton on July 18, 2011, 03:48:48 PM
My Pooh prediction was almost spot on, so that's dank.

Either way, with Transformers still doing business and Potter probably not slowing down, Captain America is pretty much boned, right?

I think Captain America will do pretty well, but still be considered a financial disappointment.  Few movies can survive the Potter mania. 
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 18, 2011, 04:04:39 PM
you have to assume Potter's going to crumble hard this weekend.  it dropped 53.4% from day 1 to day 2 alone.  the 15.8% fall on Sunday is an interesting number but summer films tend to have much better weekday legs than fall films and thus eat up more of the potential audience. 

Of the Summer Potters:

Prince fell 62.1%
Order fell 57.8%
Azkaban fell 62.7%

and none of them had the ruch to see factor this one did.  a 65% fall to just under 60m would be a good number for this weekend.  Though this one did make 15m from IMAX and has a much bigger 3D release to help buoy sales.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 18, 2011, 04:37:16 PM
I suppose, but I'm still not entirely sure the Captain America name carries that much weight, but I guess I thought the same about Thor and that worked out well enough. Still...Lucas Lee!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 18, 2011, 04:48:30 PM
Potter's fall holds little relevance to Captain's start.  The market tends to expand and contract with demand.  Just depends on the how many people are up for a 5th Comic Hero this year.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 21, 2011, 10:53:20 AM
Summer Session 2 (2011) - Week 5

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $169.2 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      163.5      5.7      96.63%   
   matt tmw      150      19.2      88.65%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       190      20.8      87.71%   
   smirnoff      190      20.8      87.71%   
   FLYmeatwad      143.3      25.9      84.69%   
   1SO      139.6      29.6      82.51%   
   Bill Thompson      201      31.8      81.21%   
   edgar00      NG      169.2      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      96.77%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      94.21%      -   
   1SO      87.45%      -   
   matt tmw      86.53%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       82.27%      -   
   smirnoff      81.80%      -   
   Bill Thompson      67.79%      -   
   edgar00      33.77% (84.43%)      -   



2 Weeks, no change!  Even though some groupings are very close together, we've no have anyone swap spots on the chart for a second week in a row.  This will, of course, be the final weekend of Summer, Part 2 - good luck!

Trannies 3 is now still the highest grossing film of the year.  Incase your keeping track its Transformers 3, then Hangover 2, Then Pirates 4, then Fast 5 and newly entered Potter 8 (or 7, part 2?).  How long until the love/hate relationship toward split-sequels becomes a hot topic of conversation?  Actually, note to Hollywood... PEOPLE WILL PAY TO SEE THINGS TO END!

The box office superlatives for the final Potter just keep on rolling. 

 - Biggest 3D open (3,100 Theaters)
 - Biggest midnight open ($43.5m)
 - Biggest single day ($91.1m)
 - Biggest Friday to Saturday drop, non-holiday (-53.4%)
 - Biggest opening weekend ($169.2m)
 - Biggest IMAX open ($15.2m)
 - Biggest foreign open ($314.0m)
 - Biggest world-wide open ($483.2m)
 - 2nd highest per theater average ($38,672)
 - Biggest 4 Day start ($187.2m)
 - Fastest film to 100m

Amazing. That was then though... its now fallen behind The Dark Knight for fastest to $200m.  The problem with the Potter franchise has always been its insularity.  The audience never got wider than The Sorcerer’s Stone ($317.6m total in 2001).  In fact, it contracted rapidly after the excitement for first installment faded ($262.0m for Chamber, $249.5 for Azkaban) and only returned in 2005 with every film from Goblet thru Hallow’s 1 finishing between 290 and 301m.

Box office watchers will be especially interested in how the film holds up this weekend to see whether the hard core fans are still as limited in number as they seem to have always been or if the cultural phenomenon of the finally has a good deal of pull for the casual theater-goer.

Daily Comparison – TDK vs. Potter 8

DayTDKPotter 8
Friday$67.2m$91.1m
Saturday$47.7m$42.1m
Sunday$43.6m$35.7m
Monday$24.5m$18.0m
Tuesday$20.9m$15.4m

In other news – Transformers 3 became the first film of the year to reach $300m and Midnight in Paris became the highest grossing film of Woody Allan’s career with $41.8m

This weekend, the last of this session:

(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/captainamerica_poster.jpg)

(CINECAST! YEAH!)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 21, 2011, 11:00:31 AM
Midnight in Paris became the highest grossing film of Woody Allan’s career with $41.8m
Adjust for inflation!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 21, 2011, 01:30:09 PM
62M for America!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 21, 2011, 02:56:32 PM
Captain America 55M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 21, 2011, 04:22:33 PM
Captain America - 48 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 21, 2011, 07:26:30 PM
Captain America: 49.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 22, 2011, 03:01:24 PM
Captain America - $49.84M
Friends With Benefits - $21.95M

Why? Well, read the rationale here (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/07/box-office-battle-july-22nd.html).
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 22, 2011, 05:33:15 PM
58.7
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 22, 2011, 07:11:41 PM
$54 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 24, 2011, 12:12:53 PM
I was way off apparently. Sounds like CA did $65M or something crazy like that.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 28, 2011, 04:44:49 PM
Summer Session 2 (2011) - Week 6 - FINAL!

             Captain America - $65.1 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   smirnoff      62      3.1      95.24%   
   ¡Keith!      58.7      6.4      90.17%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       55      10.1      84.49%   
   1SO      54      11.1      82.95%   
   FLYmeatwad      49.8      15.3      76.50%   
   matt tmw      49.5      15.6      76.04%   
   Bill Thompson      48      17.1      73.73%   
   edgar00      NG      65.1      0.00%   



   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      95.67%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      91.26%      -   
   1SO      86.70%      -   
   matt tmw      84.78%      -   
   smirnoff      84.04%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       82.64%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   Bill Thompson      68.78%      -   
   edgar00      28.14% (84.43%)      -   



The problem with the Potter franchise has always been its insularity.  The audience never got wider than The Sorcerer’s Stone ($317.6m total in 2001).  In fact, it contracted rapidly after the excitement for first installment faded ($262.0m for Chamber, $249.5 for Azkaban) and only returned in 2005 with every film from Goblet thru Hallow’s 1 finishing between 290 and 301m.

Box office watchers will be especially interested in how the film holds up this weekend to see whether the hard core fans are still as limited in number as they seem to have always been or if the cultural phenomenon of the finally has a good deal of pull for the casual theater-goer.

And there it is.  Hallows 2 crumbled a massive 72% in its second week. The franchise finale should right itself this week and end up as the highest grossing entrant but the end of the Potter era is less of something transcendent and more par for the course... the Oscars could have something to say about that though.

Captain America shows that an A-list hero can still pull in the cash, or that patriotism can boost the box.  Thor still benefited from its first to launch position, edging the shielded warrior by $600k, but CA reversed the prevailing downtrend in comic openers for the summer.  Also benefiting from the pole spot was No Strings Attached, which opened $1.1m ahead of this weekend's Friends with Benefits.

Transformers 3 finally landed on the upside of 50% this week - the last in its first month in release.  Now past $330m total, its going to be hard for Potter to top Bay's magnum opus of boom for top film of the summer.

For the first time I managed to throw off Matt's cursed pattern and string two wins together!!  Now if only I can take the last leg to Labor Day and I'll be queen of summertime... ahh... king... king!

Now Summer, part the third:

July 29 - 31
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/cowboys_and_aliens.jpg)

Aug 5 -7
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/rise_of_the_planet_of_the_apes.jpg)

Aug 12 - 14
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/glee_live_3d.jpg)

Aug 19 - 21
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/conan_the_barbarian.jpg)

Aug 26 - 28
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/colombiana.jpg)

Sep 2 - 5 4-Day Holiday Weekend!
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/shark_night_3d.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on July 28, 2011, 05:01:11 PM
Cowboys & Aliens - 74 MIL
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on July 28, 2011, 05:28:24 PM
Heh neat, my high guess got it done :)

C&A - 32M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on July 29, 2011, 02:52:52 AM
65M for Cowboys and Aliens
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on July 29, 2011, 08:06:18 AM
Cowboys & Aliens: 40M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on July 29, 2011, 09:09:24 AM
56.7 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 29, 2011, 01:56:54 PM
$40.89M

I'll be back later with the whole rationale/recap thing, but I wanted to get in before the cutoff.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 29, 2011, 03:56:44 PM
39.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 29, 2011, 04:06:19 PM
$40.89M

I'll be back later with the whole rationale/recap thing, but I wanted to get in before the cutoff.

The only person FLY lies to, is himself. Here is the rationale (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/07/box-office-battle-july-29th.html) with my guesses for Crazy, Stupid, Love. and The Smurfs as well.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 30, 2011, 01:08:44 PM
BOM Friday:
1. The Smurfs $13,300,000
2. Cowboys & Aliens $12,994,000
3. Captain America $7,860,000

 :o
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 30, 2011, 02:44:41 PM
Looks like FLY was off base again; however, it also appears everyone else was as well regarding how well The Smurfs would do. Still, both crazy and terrifying. I guess I should have figured it would carry the same weight as Alvin.

Damn it, FLY :no:
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 30, 2011, 05:35:38 PM
I'd predicted thusly on the openers:

C&A 39.25
TS 31.10
CSL 16.58

That Smurfs won friday is still amazing to me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on July 30, 2011, 05:37:55 PM
I don't know what numbers I was looking at, but I had the midnights fairly low, which wasn't shocking, and it tracking somewhere around 20.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on July 31, 2011, 12:37:59 PM
Smurfs wouldn't be a midnight launch kinda flick - the nostalgia demo is has to work the next day ;)  Yeah, tracking kinda failed to pick up on that one - though sales indicators from Fandango indicated an above tracking weekend.

Estimates:

1 N COWBOYS & ALIENS Uni. $36,200,000 - 3,750 - $9,653 $36,200,000 1
1 N THE SMURFS Sony $36,200,000 - 3,395 - $10,663 $36,200,000 1
3 1 CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER Par. $24,905,000 -61.7% 3,715 - $6,704 $116,772,000 2
4 2 HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 WB $21,925,000 -53.8% 4,145 -230 $5,290 $318,460,000 3
5 N CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE WB $19,300,000 - 3,020 - $6,391 $19,300,000 1
6 3 FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS SGem $9,300,000 -50.1% 2,926 - $3,178 $38,200,000 2
7 5 HORRIBLE BOSSES WB (NL) $7,100,000 -40.3% 2,510 -594 $2,829 $96,202,000 4
8 4 TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON P/DW $5,970,000 -50.5% 2,604 -771 $2,293 $337,892,000 5
9 6 ZOOKEEPER Sony $4,200,000 -51.7% 2,418 -797 $1,737 $68,731,000 4
10 7 CARS 2 BV $2,301,000 -59.3% 1,763 -905 $1,305 $182,070,000 6

11 8 WINNIE THE POOH BV $1,751,000 -66.1% 1,632 -773 $1,073 $22,409,000 3
12 10 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS SPC $1,220,000 -32.4% 471 -150 $2,590 $46,915,000 11
13 11 BRIDESMAIDS Uni. $845,000 -36.3% 484 -196 $1,746 $165,443,000 12
14 9 BAD TEACHER Sony $800,000 -69.4% 765 -1,269 $1,046 $96,675,000 6
15 22 KUNG FU PANDA 2 P/DW $658,000 +107.3% 319 +69 $2,063 $161,678,000 10
16 13 MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS Fox $445,000 -52.4% 412 -179 $1,080 $64,603,000 7
17 37 SARAH'S KEY Wein. $369,000 +218.9% 33 +28 $11,182 $539,000 2
18 16 THE TREE OF LIFE FoxS $324,000 -41.7% 196 -34 $1,653 $11,676,000 10
19 14 SUPER 8 Par. $284,000 -62.6% 325 -333 $874 $124,954,000 8
20 20 X-MEN: FIRST CLASS Fox $275,000 -21.0% 254 -41 $1,083 $144,711,000 9
21 12 LARRY CROWNE Uni. $268,000 -73.7% 335 -700 $800 $35,113,000 5

22 18 BEGINNERS Focus $236,000 -44.5% 147 -10 $1,605 $5,030,000 9
24 29 SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN FoxS $181,000 -9.7% 93 +32 $1,946 $707,000 3
25 26 BUCK IFC $181,000 -32.1% 113 -15 $1,602 $3,015,000 7
N/A N ATTACK THE BLOCK SGem $130,000 - 8 - $16,250 $130,000 1
N/A 34 THE TRIP IFC $128,000 -1.2% 56 +10 $2,286 $1,429,000 8
N/A 32 BEATS, RHYMES & LIFE: THE TRAVELS OF A TRIBE CALLED QUEST SPC $126,000 -13.3% 43 -11 $2,930 $801,000 4
N/A 40 ANOTHER EARTH FoxS $107,000 +37.6% 20 +16 $5,350 $220,000 2
N/A N THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE LGF $95,000 - 5 - $19,000 $95,000 1
N/A N THE GUARD SPC $80,400 - 4 - $20,100 $80,400 1
N/A N LIFE IN A DAY NGE $45,500 - 11 - $4,136 $45,500 1
N/A N THE FUTURE RAtt. $28,200 - 1 - $28,200 $28,200 1

http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=30&p=.htm (http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=30&p=.htm)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 03, 2011, 12:34:47 PM
Summer Session 3 (2011) - Week 1

             Cowboys & Aliens - $36.4 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      39.1      2.7      92.58%   
   matt tmw      40      3.6      90.11%   
   smirnoff      32      4.4      87.91%   
   FLYmeatwad      40.9      4.5      87.64%   
   1SO      56.7      20.3      44.23%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       65      28.6      21.43%   
   Bill Thompson      74      37.6      -3.30%   


Indy + Bond... the kids just don't care these days.

Given the estimates this was setting up to be one of the closest photo finish weekends of ever!  Then actuals were released and not only was the upset avoided but it was only like the 31st closest opening finish... bah.  Which is exactly how audiences reacted to this weekend sci-west mash-up.  The ads were utter crap and the "stars" have never drawn outside their respective franchises (Hollywood Homicide? Firewall? Extraordinary Measures?).  Add that to the lackluster performance of antecedents like Wild Wild West or Jonah Hex and it’s a recipe for disaster (comparatively and monetarily speaking).

The latest Potter is now also the greatest in terms of gross (unadjusted Mañana) as it now sits at $318+ million, eclipsing Sorcerer’s Stone nee Philosopher’s as the top earner in the franchise.  And Crazy, Stupid, Love. gobbled up a good portion of the older audience (another possible reason for C&A’s failure – as it also skewed toward the 30+ crowd).  Americans on the whole though avoided the movies this weekend as even the holdovers (save Horrible Bosses) dipped nearly 50% or more - though the weekend was up a strong 30% from the same frame last year and a whopping 57% from this time in 2009.

Globally, Transformers 3 and Potter 8 each passed $1 Billion in grosses over the past week, joining Pirates 4 which was already pearched in that rarified air - there are only 10 films total to have reached this mark.

This weekend: APE SHALL NEVER KILL APE!

Aug 5 -7
(http://www.ez1productions.com/img/movieposters/rise_of_the_planet_of_the_apes.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 03, 2011, 12:38:50 PM
(unadjusted Mañana)
  :)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 03, 2011, 02:52:25 PM
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 27 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 05, 2011, 12:32:55 PM
$42.96M for the Apes

Here's the rationale as well as my guess for The Change-Up (http://processedgrass.blogspot.com/2011/08/box-office-battle-august-5th.html)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 05, 2011, 12:35:10 PM
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 32M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 05, 2011, 01:00:13 PM
3 1 . 5 Million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 05, 2011, 01:43:17 PM
39M Apes
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 05, 2011, 04:07:34 PM
44.34
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 05, 2011, 04:23:56 PM
37M for the Apes
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: edgar00 on August 05, 2011, 04:25:38 PM
32.5 million. Planet of the Apes.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 06, 2011, 04:49:52 PM
Apes will best all our predictions.

BOM:
1 RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES $19,750,000
 
2 THE SMURFS 5,950,000
 
3 COWBOYS & ALIENS  $4,749,000
 
4 THE CHANGE-UP  $4,748,000
 
5 CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER  $3,751,000
 
6 CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.  $3,725,000
 
7 HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2  $3,385,000
 
8 FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS  $1,475,000
 
9 HORRIBLE BOSSES  $1,345,000
 
10 TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON  $837,000
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 07, 2011, 12:19:23 PM
Est:

1 RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES 54.0 54.0
2 THE SMURFS 21.0 76.2
3 COWBOYS & ALIENS 15.7 67.4
4 THE CHANGE-UP 13.5 13.5
5 CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER 13.0 143.2
6 HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 12.2 342.8
7 CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE 12.1 42.2
8 FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS 4.7 48.5
9 HORRIBLE BOSSES 4.6 105.2
10 TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON 3.0 344.2
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 07, 2011, 03:41:46 PM
Golly!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 07, 2011, 05:54:59 PM
FYI - Tim Burton's Apes had the highest opening day in history in 2001.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 07, 2011, 10:02:35 PM
All hail Burton!
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 10, 2011, 10:36:05 AM
Summer Session 3 (2011) - Week 2

Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $54.8 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      44.3      10.5      80.84%   
   FLYmeatwad      43      11.8      78.47%   
   smirnoff      39      15.8      71.17%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       37      17.8      67.52%   
   edgar00       32.5      22.3      59.31%   
   matt tmw      32      22.8      58.39%   
   1SO      31.5      23.3      57.48%   
   Bill Thompson      27      27.8      49.27%   

   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      86.71%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      83.05%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   smirnoff      79.54%      -   
   matt tmw      74.25%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   1SO      50.86%      -   
   Dave the Necrobumper       44.47%      -   
   edgar00      29.65% (59.31%)      -   
   Bill Thompson      22.99%      -   


Reagan knew it, Friends knew it and now we all know it. America. Loves. Monkeys. 

As I posted the other day - when Tim Burton first reignited/reimagined the Apes franchise a decade (+1 week) ago, it shocked everyone with the biggest Friday debut to that point and solidified the cultural cachet that the cult of Apes was always thought to have.  This new Apes flick was unexpectedly tracking quite high in the weeks leading up to the open – pegged at 58 three weeks before its bow, 55 two weeks out and 57 a week out according to Reel Source.  Even with these accounts most prognosticators didn’t think people would show in those numbers to see a bunch of poo-flingers take on a High Times centerfold. 

 - Side note.  Summer 2001 was the first time I played a box office game – the old Mr. Showbiz Summer Box Office Challenge – and I’ve totally been hooked since.

Other than brief snippets of Franco, the ads for Rise were all apes all the time… Tom Felton was in this?!?  It played more like the disaster porn of Roland Emmerich and people love porn (of all shapes and sizes!)

Meanwhile, Ryan Reynolds did a good deal to help prove Bill Simmon’s (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6716942/view/full/the-movie-star) contention that he’s just not a movie star as The Change-Up became his second disappointment of the summer.  It also broke the hot streak that R-rated comedies had been on this summer… coming in well below Hangover 2, Bridesmaids, Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses  and even Friends with Benefits.  Which could signal rough times ahead for this weekends 30 Minutes or Less  and Our Idiot Brother which opens at the end of the month.  Though as Captain America showed, if its sold well, people will show up – right FCM! ;)

After last weeks close call, Cowboys & Aliens crumbled 57% while The Smurfs smurfed down a mild 42% from last smurf.  C&A can claim its one week victory but the long term prospects are not at all good – it still has to make about $100m more to recoup the production cost.

And finally Potter 8 really found a second wind (thanks in no small part to lengthy IMAX run) and passed Transformers 3 on Monday to become the highest grossing film of 2011.  Looking ahead to the rest of the year, I’m not sure there’s a holiday release that can top it, though the 3D re-release of The Lion King may add enough to its $330m cume to surpass it on total gross terms.  I’m pulling for Hugo and The Muppets, but opening 3 family films (Arthur Christmas is there as well) on the same weekend… even if that is Thanksgiving Weekend, is not a smart idea.

This weekend, we go with the least for a change.

Aug 12 - 14
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/gleelive3d_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 10, 2011, 12:13:34 PM
Those scores confuse me.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 10, 2011, 02:04:40 PM
Those scores confuse me.

better?
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 10, 2011, 03:31:48 PM
Much.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 12, 2011, 07:31:15 AM
No post this week as I hammer out PC stuff.

$9.2M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 12, 2011, 07:32:40 AM
31M Glee
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 12, 2011, 08:10:42 AM
Glee 3D: 13.5M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 12, 2011, 11:17:58 AM
17 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 12, 2011, 04:03:05 PM
8.1
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 13, 2011, 03:48:23 PM
Apparently 5nal Destination is going to flop pretty hard. Glee made like $2.7M on Friday, I hear.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 14, 2011, 07:11:08 AM
Been so busy I forgot about this, haven't read anything on Glee, but if you don't accept this I understand,

Glee 3D - 12 MIl
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 14, 2011, 04:21:51 PM
I should stop playing this game, I'm never going to place higher than second. Sounds like GLEE 3-D took in $5.7M for the weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 14, 2011, 04:39:43 PM
wow, not even in the top 10 - they really could've sold this better, most people didn't even know it existed!

1 1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $27,500,000 -49.8% 3,691 +43 $7,451 $104,876,000 $93 2
2 N The Help BV $25,525,000 - 2,534 - $10,073 $35,399,000 - 1
3 N Final Destination 5 WB (NL) $18,400,000 - 3,155 - $5,832 $18,400,000 - 1
4 2 The Smurfs Sony $13,500,000 -34.8% 3,427 +32 $3,939 $101,546,000 $110 3
5 N 30 Minutes or Less Sony $13,000,000 - 2,888 - $4,501 $13,000,000 - 1
6 3 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $7,613,000 -51.6% 3,310 -444 $2,300 $81,476,000 $163 3
7 5 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $7,125,000 -45.3% 2,835 -785 $2,513 $156,885,000 $140 4
8 7 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $6,930,000 -42.3% 2,635 -385 $2,630 $55,402,000 $50 3
9 6 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $6,875,000 -44.8% 2,414 -761 $2,848 $356,961,000 - 5
10 4 The Change-Up Uni. $6,219,000 -54.0% 2,913 - $2,135 $25,751,000 $52 2
11 N Glee The 3D Concert Movie Fox $5,700,000 - 2,040 - $2,794 $5,700,000 - 1
12 9 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $2,440,000 -46.8% 1,338 -687 $1,824 $110,005,000 $35 6
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 14, 2011, 05:25:43 PM
Interesting, seemed like they were promoting the Hell out of it on Nick, CBS, MTV, and whatever other channels I have been watching as it almost felt like I couldn't not see Jane Lynch's face on every channel saying "this movie sucks." Or whatever the tv spots had. Still, take that GLEE!.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 14, 2011, 10:48:42 PM
funny, as they cut Lynch out of the film completely.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 16, 2011, 04:06:20 PM
Summer Session 3 (2011) - Week 3

   Glee: The 3D Concert Movie - $6.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   ¡Keith!      8.1      2.1      65.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      9.2      3.2      46.67%   
   Bill Thompson      12      6      0.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       NG      6      0.00%   
   edgar00       NG      6      0.00%   
   matt tmw      13.5      7.5      -25.00%   
   1SO      17      11      -83.33%   
   smirnoff      31      25      -316.67%   

   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      79.47%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      70.92%      -   
   matt tmw      41.17%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Dave the Necrobumper       29.65% (44.47%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   edgar00      19.77% (59.31%)      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   Bill Thompson      15.32%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   1SO      6.13%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)
   smirnoff      -52.53%      (http://i47.tinypic.com/2mguv5y.gif)


"This weekend, we go with the least for a change."

Truth! So yeah, that was a spectacular failure (Sorry 'Noff!).  Fox should've taken notes from Disney on how to successfully transfer to the big screen.  High School Musical 3  became an event... I'm not sure many gleeks even knew this thing existed.  The current state of 3D was likely also a factor in the flop alongside the excising of Jane Lynch from the film all together!  One assume that the TV ratings and record selling will continue unflustered by this unfortunate attempt at brand extension but it does take some of the luster off the whole Glee  phenomenon.

Apes  proved to be the choice of the masses for the second weekend in a row falling less than 50% - something not done by a #1 opener since Super 8  two months ago.  It also becomes the 5th film this year to spend a second week at #1… and its in decent position to make it a three-peat.  The film that is in better position to take that spot away though is this weekend’s big story – The Help.  Which, despite a Wednesday open, managed $26m+ over the 3-day and a per theater average of more thank $10k.  It was not, however the film that skewed most heavily female this weekend – Glee takes that with 79% to 74% edge. The Help’s main demo had been severely underserved so far this summer.

5nal Destination was (I’m amazed) the first film in the franchise to open lower than the previous version!  And despite a softer than expected open, it bucked the 3D trend by snagging three quarters of its profits from the higher priced runs – better than any film so far this year.

Apes and Smurfs both crossed $100m this weekend (though released a week apart) while Potter 8 sailed past $350m and into a commanding lead on the year.  Fast 5 ended its run on Thursday just shy of $210m and currently sits in 5th place for 2011.

Also… this apparently came out this weekend: Sex and Zen 3D: Extreme Ecstasy making nine-hundred and 1 dollars in a single theater.  It is currently the 50th biggest “erotic thriller” of all time, I believe Fatal Attraction’s producers are finally able to breath a sigh of relief. 

This weekend... re-boot!

Aug 19 - 21
(http://www.boxofficemojo.com/images/conan3d_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: smirnoff on August 16, 2011, 04:24:27 PM
Now I know how old, out of touch execs feel when they get it wrong.

Anyways, 24.5M for Conan.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Bill Thompson on August 16, 2011, 06:40:18 PM
Conan - 20 Mil
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 16, 2011, 07:43:56 PM
Indeed. I was sorry to not have been able to see Sex and Zen 3D.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: roujin on August 16, 2011, 08:52:02 PM
It's coming out here soon. It's already got my money.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 16, 2011, 11:39:25 PM
I'll have to keep an eye out for a Philadelphia release. Seems like a dank experience.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: 1SO on August 19, 2011, 01:32:53 AM
14 million
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 19, 2011, 03:45:52 AM
Conan - 26M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: mañana on August 19, 2011, 08:18:32 AM
Conan: 18M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: FLYmeatwad on August 19, 2011, 12:43:35 PM
$14.25M
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 19, 2011, 04:01:47 PM
16.3 - the race for everything to finish behind The Help is gonna be fierce this weekend.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 20, 2011, 01:37:20 PM
1   THE HELP - $5,804,000
2   RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - $4,650,000
3   SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD - $4,000,000
4   CONAN THE BARBARIAN - $3,700,000
5   FRIGHT NIGHT - $2,650,000
6   FINAL DESTINATION 5 - 2,430,000
7   THE SMURFS - $2,215,000
8   30 MINUTES OR LESS - $2,000,000
9   ONE DAY - $1,860,000
10   CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE. - $1,490,000

ouch.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: Dave the Necrobumper on August 21, 2011, 05:16:50 AM
I am sure Conan will do 10M on Saturday my guess will be right on target.
Title: Re: Box Office Prognostications: The Game
Post by: ¡Keith! on August 25, 2011, 12:25:41 PM
Summer Session 3 (2011) - Week 4

Conan the Barbarian (2011) - $10.0 Million

   Player      Guess      Dif      Accuracy   
   1SO      14      4      60.00%   
   FLYmeatwad      14.3      4.3      57.00%   
   ¡Keith!      16.3      6.3      37.00%   
   matt tmw      18      8      20.00%   
   Bill Thompson      20      10      0.00%   
   edgar00       NG      10      0.00%   
   smirnoff      24.5      14.5      -45.00%   
   Dave the Necrobumper       26      16      -60.00%   

   Player      Total Accuracy      Change   
   ¡Keith!      68.86%      -   
   FLYmeatwad      67.44%      -   
   matt tmw      35.88%      -   
   1SO      19.59%      (http://i48.tinypic.com/2w2ocur.gif)
   edgar00      14.83% (59.31%)   &