Since we're in the home stretch here, I thought I would rate the contestants by who I think has the best chance to win. Here we go:
#10: Rodney
Sure, he may be the most entertaining person on the show, but I can't think of a contestant so disliked (in recent memory) who has had a chance to win. Also, to win, he's going to need to pull of the blindside of Mike (and probably Tyler), which leaves a grand total of zero people on the jury voting for him.
#9: Shirin
Perhaps if she had started with the no-collar tribe, she would've had a real chance to be something in this game. To me, she just seems like someone who wants the Survivor experience so badly: she wants to walk around nude and go on cool reward field trips. But she didn't make any friends on the white collar tribe, so the narrative was written: Annoying. And I don't think she'll be able to overcome that.
#8: Dan
Dan went out of his way last night to point out how "Flippers never win." Which may be true, but total douches don't either. Same thing with Rodney: Where are the votes going to come from?
#7: Will
Maybe Will gets to the final jury. Someone like him always does, and tries the, "Hey, all I could do was sit back and let people come to me and take advantage of it" line, which a winner does not make. Perhaps the most forgettable player of this season.
#6: Jenn
I'm rooting for her, because she made an amazing idol play last week, and she seems very intelligent. But she's on the wrong side of a numbers game, and without a big move fast, she's looking at nice seat on the jury.
#5: Sierra
I've never liked players who say they're going to make huge blindsides, only to not pull the trigger when the time comes. All she's wanted to do was get rid of Rodney and Dan, and all she's done is fail to put into motion any sort of plan to do so (and I believe there may have been real opportunities for her). Gotta have some guts to win, and she just doesn't seem to have them.
#4: Joe
The first moment he slips, he's gone. It might even be a unamious vote. No one wants to be on a final jury trying to plea their case next to the likable guy who made friends and won everything. He's #4 because I don't know who votes against him, and maybe he gets the right combination of luck and skill to win every challenge.
#3: Tyler
Has it been revealed yet that this dude was in the NFL? Granted, he was a placekicker/punter, but he's looking to be one of the pro athletes who has gotten the farthest. Smart guy who is a clear strategy thinker.
#2: Carolyn
Ahhh..... Mama C. She made a nice move aligning herself with Mike & the Blue Collars after the merge, and her idol can keep her in it. Plus, the immunity challenge last week shows that she's got the gumption to hang with the big boys. Would love to see her orchestrate some sort of big blindside and show she's got the skills.
#1: Mike
Had you told me that the guy eating scorpions and yelling at his tribe for not doing anything might have the best chance to win four weeks ago, I would've said you were crazy. But he's my current front-runner. He seems to be the voice of reason for the blue collars. He hasn't made any enemies, short of Rodney. He has an idol. I think he's going to figure out what the Rodney/Will/Tyler contigent have planned and start making moves early. And when he has to plead his case to the final jury, he's made enough moves (and done so pretty openly and honestly) to not have anyone be too angry with him.