Author Topic: Northern Summer Box Office Game  (Read 6166 times)

Dave the Necrobumper

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Northern Summer Box Office Game
« on: May 19, 2016, 06:00:04 AM »
Ok the release of summer movies has already begun, but it does not mean we cannot have a box office guessing game. So here are the rules:

Must post entry by end of 25 May 2016

Films Released between 1 May 2016 and 30 August 2016
US Box Office Earned between 1 May 2016 and 30 August 2016, based on the amounts present in Box Office Mojo

Post your top 10 movies in order.

Scoring

Feel free to suggest a different scoring system.

                                      Your Guess
Actual
Position 
Correct
guess
points
12345678910
12525232221201918171615
22220222019181716151413
31916171917161514131211
41713141517151413121110
51611121314161413121110
6159101112131513121110
71478910111214121110
813567891011131110
9123456789101210
101112345678911

I am happy to change the point score which is based on the formula:

Correct guess full points, 1 or more out full points minus 1 minus number of positions out
Correct Guess Points - MIN(ABS(Actual position-Guess position)*2;2) - MAX((ABS(Actual position-Guess position) - 1);0)
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 06:08:03 AM by Dave the Necrobumper »

Dave the Necrobumper

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2016, 06:01:02 AM »
Movies in contention:

MAY 2016
May 4 (Wednesday)
A Bigger Splash (Limited)

May 6 (Friday)
Captain America: Civil War
Dark Horse (Limited)
Mothers and Daughters (Limited)

May 13 (Friday)
Kidnap
Money Monster
The Trust
Dheepan (Limited)
High-Rise (Limited)
Kill Zone 2 (Limited)
Love & Friendship (Limited)
Sunset Song (Limited)
May 20 (Friday)
Angry Birds
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
The Nice Guys
Maggie's Plan (Limited)
Manhattan Night (Limited)
Weiner (Limited)

May 25 (Wednesday)
Unlocking the Cage (Limited)

May 27 (Friday)
Alice Through the Looking Glass
X-Men: Apocalypse
The Ones Below (Limited)
Holy Hell (Limited)

JUNE 2016
June 3 (Friday)
Me Before You
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
Andron (Limited)
Approaching the Unknown (Limited)
The Fits (Limited)
Time to Choose (Limited)
Urge (Limited)

June 10 (Friday)
The Conjuring 2
Now You See Me 2
Warcraft
De Palma (Limited)
Genius (Limited)

June 17 (Friday)
Central Intelligence
Pixar's Finding Dory
Clown (Limited)
The Last King (Limited)

June 24 (Friday)
Free State of Jones
Independence Day: Resurgence
The Duel (Limited)
Hunt for the Wilderpeople (Limited)
The Neon Demon (Limited)
NUTS! (Limited)

June 29 (Wednesday)
The Shallows

JULY 2016
July 1 (Friday)
The BFG
The Legend of Tarzan
The Purge: Election Year
Our Kind of Traitor (Limited)
Swiss Army Man (Limited)

July 8 (Friday)
Cell
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates
The Secret Life of Pets
Captain Fantastic (Limited)

July 15 (Friday)
Ghostbusters
The Infiltrator
Café Society (Limited)
Equals (Limited)
Tulip Fever (Limited)

July 22 (Friday)
Ice Age: Collision Course
Lights Out
Star Trek Beyond

July 29 (Friday)
Bad Moms
Jason Bourne
Indignation (Limited)

AUGUST 2016
August 5 (Friday)
Nine Lives
Suicide Squad
The Founder (Limited)

August 12 (Friday)
Ben-Hur
Pete's Dragon
Sausage Party
Spectral
Florence Foster Jenkins (Limited)

August 19 (Friday)
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Space Between Us
War Dogs

August 26 (Friday)
Mechanic: Resurrection
Hands of Stone (Limited)
Southside with You (Limited)
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 06:04:08 AM by Dave the Necrobumper »

Corndog

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2016, 06:15:55 AM »
I will come back to this.
"Time is the speed at which the past decays."

DarkeningHumour

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2016, 06:21:49 AM »
First of all: great idea! This looks fun and I'll be sure to participate. 

About the scoring system. If points reward the difficulty of the guess I would argue that it is more difficult to correctly predict the 10th movie than the first. The most popular movie will usually be the biggest release, typically an entry in a well established franchise. On the other hand, when you pick your #10 you run the risk of it ending up being #11 or #12, which would grant you no points at all. We could reward risk and difficulty by reversing the score pyramid, so that the bottom guesses would be the most profitable.

But I get the feeling this is templated from an existing game or something sports related. If that is the case, I am not aware of the formula.
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Dave the Necrobumper

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 08:03:39 AM »
I was thinking to load the 10th and possibly the 9th positions with additional points for a correct answer, but decided not too. As for the formula it is just something I came up with. Like I said though I am willing to change the scoring (well until the 25th) Perhaps just getting the correct position is good. So correct for positions 2 to 8 each get 12, 1st gets 14, 9th gets 15 and 10th get 17 and use the same formula for deducting when away from the position. Basically bonuses for only a few. So the chart would be:

                                      Your Guess
Actual
Position 
Correct
guess
points
12345678910
11414121110987654
2121012109876543
3129101210987654
4128910121098765
5127891012109876
6126789101210987
7125678910121098
8124567891012109
9156789101112131513
101778910111213141517

Formula is still the same, just the correct guess points have changed:

Correct guess full points, 1 or more out full points minus 1 minus number of positions out
Correct Guess Points - MIN(ABS(Actual position-Guess position)*2;2) - MAX((ABS(Actual position-Guess position) - 1);0)

Teproc

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 08:53:16 AM »
Sweet. Will participate, definitely. Scoring system seems fine, I suppose. I don't really have any specific qualms or other idea, so... we'll see how it does.

One thing though : you mention the limit being 30 August, I think it's better if it's Labor Day Weekend because then you can use the Summer page on Box-office mojo. It is domestic though... part of me wants to do international, because I personally care more about international box-office than US domestic, but it doesn't have the handy box-office mojo page.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 08:56:10 AM by Teproc »

Dave the Necrobumper

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2016, 07:16:15 PM »
Ok, so dates for the game will be:

6 May to 6 Sept.

I too would like to do international, but making it world wide would be a big increase in films and cause problems with different release dates, easier (for me) is just the US domestic.

smirnoff

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2016, 12:29:19 AM »
I'll set myself a reminder to come back to this.

Teproc

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2016, 05:10:37 AM »
Alright, I'll open the hostilities.

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. The Secret Life of Pets
6. Jason Bourne
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. X-Men : Apocalypse
9. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
10. Suicide Squad
 
Might regret not including Ghostbusters, would be my 11 probably.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 05:15:10 AM by Teproc »

DarkeningHumour

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Re: Northern Summer Box Office Game
« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2016, 05:15:55 AM »
1. Finding Dory

This is ambitious.

4. Independece Day: Resurgence
9. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

This is depressing. I am not sure I disagree though.
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