I don't see a lot of upsets, so I'm hoping for a lot of upsets.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Florida Project Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST DIRECTOR:
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Honestly, Peele and Gerwig are more likely to be passed up for Guadagnino, but living in L.A. and working in the business, Nolan is the whitest, malest candidate. Even more than Spielberg.
BEST ACTOR:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Seriously, who is even the upset possibility here? Hanks? Denzel? Jackman?
BEST ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game Margot Robbie, I,Tonya
Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Willem Defoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water
Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape Of Water Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Get Out
I, Tonya The Big Sick
Lady Bird
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My disagreement may just be wishful thinking.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
All The Money In The World Wonder Woman
Call My By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
I don't have a strong replacement - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck, The Beguiled - but I would even put Blade Runner 2049 over All the Money in the World