Author Topic: Politics  (Read 231192 times)

Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6520 on: March 25, 2020, 06:56:25 PM »
I also want to say, regarding forecasting doom for Democrats (or forecasting doom for Republicans)...I feel like three months ago we were all fixated on what the political ramifications of impeaching Trump would be. Would voters hit Republicans for defending Trump or Democrats for what was claimed (by Republicans) to be a partisan power grap? Well, three months on almost no one remembers the impeachment or seems to care. And to some degree rightly so, this crisis is way more serious in impact on people's lives.

So all the people saying Democrats are doing terribly and Trump is getting a boost by being all over the place and trying to get credit for this or that are jumping way ahead. Jimmy Carter got a polling boost in the early days of the Iran Hostage Crisis...it didn't last. The voters that tend to decide elections don't follow things closely. They'll probably be voting on how they feel about the economy.

Beavermoose

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6521 on: March 26, 2020, 05:43:37 AM »
Biden is clearly in quarantine playing Animal Crossing.

Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6522 on: March 26, 2020, 07:23:24 AM »
If he sends me a damn cherry he has my vote locked up.

Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6523 on: March 26, 2020, 08:47:51 AM »
So my daily "here's what Twitter is doing to annoy me" rant:

1. I am pretty favorable to the idea of just sending everyone money right now (and using refundable tax credits to establish a minimum basic income that would not affect eligibility for safety net programs as a permanent thing), but I feel like people have gotten so hyped about UBI that they are losing their damn minds. See so many liberals dunking on the CARES Act for only giving a one-time $1200 check and noting that it won't even cover one month's rent. Thing is, you are either employed, and get this $1200 on top of your continuing salary, or you are unemployed, and get the $1200 on top of unemployment insurance payments that have been expanded. Now instead of having very specific requirements about how long you have to have worked and for whom and how much you must have earned, it has opened up to basically anyone without a job (OR significantly reduced hours) due to no fault of their own. And instead of replacing 60% of income (up to a certain cap), it now pays an additional $600 per week. So either you keep your wage that presumably was making ends meet before the crisis (we can hardly expect this measure to solve long-term cost of living issues), or you are getting a substantial amount of unemployment that probably makes you whole to where you were before. There are debates to be had about whether this was the most efficient way of doing this, but acting like unemployment doesn't exist and people are truly having to live for months on one payment of $1200 is disingenuous.

2. People are picking out various things like $25 million for the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts or money for Howard University or $300 million for undocumented immigrant facilities as being pork or special interest stuff. This is coming from conservatives. Well, the Kennedy Center is a federal public entity, normally funded by revenues from performances and program fees. Those have stopped so they provided funding to keep paying people. These people say just let them lose their jobs and collect unemployment like the rest but obviously that would be bad and it is bad in the private market (and arguably we should be doing more to avert job loss) but it is very tricky in the private market...much easier for entities within the federal government domain. The Howard University funding is specifically for their hospital that has been designated a COVID treatment facility. The immigration stuff is to deal with COVID concerns in densely packed immigration facilities/camps. None of this is arbitrary pork.

Antares

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6524 on: March 26, 2020, 09:25:51 AM »
So all the people saying Democrats are doing terribly and Trump is getting a boost by being all over the place and trying to get credit for this or that are jumping way ahead. Jimmy Carter got a polling boost in the early days of the Iran Hostage Crisis...it didn't last. The voters that tend to decide elections don't follow things closely. They'll probably be voting on how they feel about the economy.



And these are the imbeciles he's plays to...

« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 09:29:46 AM by Antares »
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Beavermoose

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6525 on: March 26, 2020, 04:05:07 PM »
Bondo, maybe you should get off twitter.
Getting rid of twitter/Facebook is one of the best things I've done for my mental health/productivity this last year.

etdoesgood

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6526 on: March 28, 2020, 01:21:53 AM »
A NEW YORK TIMES' FAQ ON THE STIMULUS PACKAGE

This doesn't put into context some of the more contentious points, but more gives you as a citizen an idea of what to expect. It's especially important to understand if you have children, are unemployed, are directly affected by the coronavirus, or carry student loans.

A VOX BREAKDOWN OF THE $2 TRILLION IN SPENDING IN THE STIMULUS

A big "Yippee!" for me is having student loan payments deferred six months while also being able to count those months toward my 10 year/120 payment Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program. I also don't mind receiving a check, and feel like I need to put that money back into circulation, the whole "economic patriotism" thing. We'll see. There really isn't a lot to buy or go and do right now.

My biggest concern is with middle and lower/working class families, wondering if the stimulus will be enough to keep people in their homes, fed, etc. SNAP got a boost, but the program is known for falling short in meeting the nutrition needs of the poor, so I wonder if this does enough. There will also be way more people applying for food stamps, and I hope that Congress will look at further stimulus if they see some of the provisions in this bill falling short.

I think if people look at this bill from an operational standpoint, they will find a lot to like, but given that I don't think Trump's insistence on opening up the economy in a few weeks is realistic (let alone how ludicrously inadvisable it is), this has to be revisited. And I need to do more reading to stay on top of this stuff.

CNN DISCUSSES WHAT I'D CERTAINLY LABEL AN ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM, UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS

I take this from a moral standpoint, that we could really hang 10.5 million people out to dry in our country. The undocumented thing doesn't bother me much. They are people who are here right now. They would also take the stimulus and put it right back into the economy, while not being as pressed to work where they can more easily get and spread the virus.
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Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6527 on: March 28, 2020, 05:26:16 AM »
I agree that undocumented people are people and deserve respect but the fact that they are undocumented means they are hard to reach with aid anyway. They don't have social security numbers, we don't have their address on file.

"My biggest concern is with middle and lower/working class families, wondering if the stimulus will be enough to keep people in their homes, fed, etc."

I'm confused by this. If they are still employed, their ability to stay in their homes, get fed, etc. is unchanged from where they are pre-crisis. If they are unemployed/furloughed, they qualify for unemployment under the new, temporary rules even if not under the normal rules and get access to the $600/week (plus what they qualify for under normal rules) for four months, which should be more than enough to replace the income for people in the middle and bottom alongside their part of the cash payments. I guess we'll see how robust the administrative function of it is to get everything distributed, but other than the undocumented population (and I suppose people who lose some but not enough income to qualify for unemployment), I don't see how anyone who was managing pre-crisis won't manage during the crisis, at least for the next four months. The big question mark is health costs, a huge question in our system even in better times. Hopefully they are able to do another bill that speaks specifically to costs attributable to COVID...a special Medicaid eligibility or something like we do with kidney failure.

etdoesgood

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6528 on: March 28, 2020, 05:47:32 AM »
I agree that undocumented people are people and deserve respect but the fact that they are undocumented means they are hard to reach with aid anyway. They don't have social security numbers, we don't have their address on file.

"My biggest concern is with middle and lower/working class families, wondering if the stimulus will be enough to keep people in their homes, fed, etc."

I'm confused by this. If they are still employed, their ability to stay in their homes, get fed, etc. is unchanged from where they are pre-crisis. If they are unemployed/furloughed, they qualify for unemployment under the new, temporary rules even if not under the normal rules and get access to the $600/week (plus what they qualify for under normal rules) for four months, which should be more than enough to replace the income for people in the middle and bottom alongside their part of the cash payments. I guess we'll see how robust the administrative function of it is to get everything distributed, but other than the undocumented population (and I suppose people who lose some but not enough income to qualify for unemployment), I don't see how anyone who was managing pre-crisis won't manage during the crisis, at least for the next four months. The big question mark is health costs, a huge question in our system even in better times. Hopefully they are able to do another bill that speaks specifically to costs attributable to COVID...a special Medicaid eligibility or something like we do with kidney failure.

I think you fleshed-out some of my worry in your response there with the administrative issues, health costs, that it's expansive enough to reach everyone struggling in these times, and general efficiency in getting the aid out there, but also, I need to read more. There are just gaps in my knowledge, the bill is huge. I often think of the community in which I work, which is a hugely economically vulnerable place with a lot of undocumented people, and I want to know that they are taken care of. Well, the ones that are documented, for now at least. Hoping the food banks can at least keep our undocumented population fed well enough if they can't work, or if/when someone gets sick. It's dire. Our district has an office that's essentially community outreach and aid, and they are seeking donations for food, diapers, and baby wipes. I'm guessing the more mobile people in the community are sucking up all the supplies, and those that can't be at a place at a certain time to get what they need suffer. Anyway, I digress...

With undocumented immigrants, one solution I've read, though it's not a 100% solution, would be getting stimulus to people who use ITIN's because they are not eligible for SSN's. That's around 4 million people. Got it from another CNN article. Still more reading and thinking to be done, but I'm glad Congress has been able to take the steps they have. The aftermath and how long we have to have this partial shutdown of the economy and various services will indicate the work still to come.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 05:52:21 AM by etdoesgood »
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