To some degree you can chalk up the win to timing. Had the election been held fall of 2010 or spring of 2011, the Tories almost certainly would have won - not because people were outraged with the government, more of a "time for change" thing. But the Jet bump, the amazingly bug-free hot summer, and ever rising property values put people in a good mood and made them feel like “we’re on the right track”. And the NDP campaign, negative as it was, it would seem was far more effective.
The popular vote was close, but Tory support is inefficiently distributed; they need to breakthrough in those suburban Winnipeg ridings that the used to own. By election day I was expecting the NDP to win, but I thought they’d lose 3 or 4 of those seats suburban seats (Kirkfield Park, Southdale...etc), I certainly did not see them adding 1 to their total.