Top 5 Upsets
I meant to post this earlier, but forgot. This comes from comparing cases where the leading vote-getter in the nominations didn't go on to win the category:
5. Best Scene (Emotion): The final scene from Wendy and Lucy and the space dance from WALL·E looked the strongest after the nominations, but it seems that the voters who like the piano tuning scene Flight on the Red Balloon really like that scene. It only appeared on one more final ballot than it did nominations ballots, but that was enough. Wendy and Lucy, on the other hand, appeared on one less ballot.
4. Best Adapted Screenplay: Wendy and Lucy was the last film nominated, with less than half the support of Paranoid Park, Slumdog Millionaire, or Doubt. But voters didn't rally around any one of those films on the final ballot, while Wendy and Lucy's core supporters stayed true, adding one more voter to their number.
3. Most Surprising Film: In Bruges ran away with the nominations votes, but Chop Shop gained just enough support to pull ahead on the final ballot.
2. Best Soundtrack: My Blueberry Nights was the last nominated film, but it hung in there against heavy favorite Slumdog Millionaire on the final ballot, with one extra vote being enough to take the category.
1. Best Picture: WALL·E crushed the nominations stage, but second-place finisher The Wrestler snuck ahead in the end. We've discussed this already, I think.
And one extra note:
Best Director: I'd forgotten that Aronofosky had the most support in the nominations, ahead of Stanton. Van Sant was third, but he went on the win the category pretty handily, probably because Milk was no longer there to split his votes.
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