Author Topic: Politics  (Read 226416 times)

etdoesgood

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6300 on: January 18, 2020, 01:01:34 AM »
No one thought Trump was electable at the beginning of the Republican primary, or really at its middle or end or in the general. Jeb Bush seemed like a much surer bet at the beginning of that process. If this shock to the system - an extreme euphemism - tells us anything, it should tell us that we don't know nearly as much as we think we did about elect-ability or even the electorate. Also, when President Obama won in '08, the process was fairly drawn out and uncertain, so I don't think a well-contested primary means none of them are able to beat Trump.

I voted in Ohio in 2000 and 2004, so I have been on the "your vote matters a ton" side, and then voted in Arizona in 2008 and 2012, where it felt a bit meaningless. 2016, closer. Maybe in 2020 we flip. Demographic shifts in Arizona have us fairly purple, just electing a Democratic senator for the first time in a while. We'll take that next step soon.

Personal note: We inaugurate these often disappointing presidents on my birthday every four years. Would be awesome to have our first female president (Warren) for my 39th. I'll settle for anyone but Trump, though.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 01:05:45 AM by etdoesgood »
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Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6301 on: January 18, 2020, 05:33:07 AM »
The one saving grace longer term in the electoral college is it really does seem that Arizona, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina are trending blue, which would make up for Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and maybe Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania moving the opposite direction. And the generational gap is so huge that another 10-20 years of old people dying and millennials aging into higher turnout years will shift things a lot too. Only problem is it'll be too late for climate change and potentially too late for American democracy.

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Beavermoose

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6303 on: January 18, 2020, 08:01:37 AM »
If Trump wins again, we can blame the Russians again.

FLYmeatwad

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6304 on: January 18, 2020, 11:06:42 AM »
Also, a percentage of those millennials who age up will trend to the right as they come in to more financial stability and continue to be old on the idea that if you're stable enough sometime you might get super stable and hit it real big, at which point Republican tax laws will benefit them. That idea is so baked in to the myth of the American Dream that, as passionate as you may see younger generations now (of which I still technically qualify, I guess), it's likely to fade as they shift demographics. I figure there's a trend of people getting more conservative leaning as they age, but that's just speculation on my end.

In regard to not seeing a Democratic candidate to beat Trump, I think the primary is a byproduct of that, but not the reason I see things that way. Maybe if they can mobilize voters, perhaps, but at that point you're looking at Biden (presumably, he seems to think that he's the Great White Hope or something and that all non-white voting blocs are ready to come out in droves to support him), Sanders, and Warren, both of which do seem to have pretty dialed in bases. Not sure they outweigh Trump's base though, which will bring it to swing voters/ones who are also not apathetic. Someone mentioned after the last debate, talking either to or about Pete, I believe, that it's hard to be sure he'd be ready to stand head to head on a debate stage with Trump because it won't be like anything he's seen at the primary, and I get that sense as well, with him especially. Biden is so dialed in on rhetoric that I also feel like Trump's theatricality has a pretty decisive advantage on him there, and he's basically been prepping attacks on Warren since before she even announced candidacy, so, mixed in with how he feeds on hate, racism, and misogyny, that I also find it difficult to see him not coming out as a decisive 'winner' in the perception after their debates. Maybe Sanders can match him, since he also dabbles in the theatricality, but even that I'm not sure about, though of the people left he's the one I feel who has the biggest advantage in that regard.

Of course the real solution is shutting everything down on election day and making the process so simple/uniform that a need to mandate voting isn't even a necessity, but, obvi, neither of those will happen. I've voted in every election/primary/whatever at each level since I turned 18, even though I can say that my vote has felt important only once or twice, but I imagine that's a hard sell for most people and the fight against apathy is the real one that needs to be won.

Bondo

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6305 on: January 18, 2020, 11:33:11 AM »
People getting more conservative as they age isn't really a thing. And the younger generations are liberal in part because they are less white. They definitely aren't getting whiter as they age.

FLYmeatwad

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6306 on: January 18, 2020, 02:58:35 PM »
I'll have to give that a read, like I mentioned it was all speculation on my part, though I do think the Republican party largely traffics in that 'what if it was me' mentality to sell to parts of their base that would likely benefit more from liberal policy.

etdoesgood

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6307 on: January 18, 2020, 09:09:37 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/478898-kansas-city-radio-station-signs-deal-to-broadcast-russia-state-owned-media#disqus_thread

You see the times they're airing? Maybe that's not prime time for radio, but 6-9am and 6-9pm are still times we're all awake!

On Trump's base, here's a decent little article on it. The actual base may be entrenched, but it's not as big as we think.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-base-is-smaller-than-he-thinks/2019/10/06/0826a842-e6dd-11e9-a6e8-8759c5c7f608_story.html

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jdc

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6308 on: January 21, 2020, 02:43:46 AM »
If Trump wins again, we can blame the Russians again.

Sometimes I think Democrats can be their own worst enemy; I thought this was quite interesting to listen to about how disfunctional things can really be.  It will be interesting to see what happens the next time Doug Jones is up for re-election

https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/llhd33/152-the-real-enemy-part-1

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“The direct use of physical force is so poor a solution to the problem of limited resources that it is commonly employed only by small children and great nations” - David Friedman

etdoesgood

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Re: Politics
« Reply #6309 on: January 21, 2020, 07:41:53 PM »
That's a GREAT podcast. What a cluster----.
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