Author Topic: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.  (Read 50239 times)

¡Keith!

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #440 on: February 05, 2010, 02:31:58 PM »
oh, I didn't say it was.

Corndog

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #441 on: February 05, 2010, 02:32:06 PM »
are the BAFTA awards broadcast in the US at all?
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Clovis8

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #442 on: February 05, 2010, 02:35:14 PM »
[It] won the BAFTA, Globe, some Grammys, every guild award, and a bunch of critic's prizes.  

Exactly, Avatar has won none of these (except GG) so I dont see why its such a favourite. It's not. If it is a favourite (which I dont believe) it is a very small one at best.

didn't say it was... though the oddsmakers seem to think so.

I was just using your good point to counter FLY, not you. :D

Clovis8

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #443 on: February 05, 2010, 02:35:45 PM »
are the BAFTA awards broadcast in the US at all?

I think they are on some specialty channels.

¡Keith!

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #444 on: February 05, 2010, 02:37:58 PM »
[It] won the BAFTA, Globe, some Grammys, every guild award, and a bunch of critic's prizes.  

Exactly, Avatar has won none of these (except GG) so I dont see why its such a favourite. It's not. If it is a favourite (which I dont believe) it is a very small one at best.

didn't say it was... though the oddsmakers seem to think so.

I was just using your good point to counter FLY, not you. :D

heh - though according to a lot of prognosticators THL is tops: http://moviecitynews.com/awards/2010/gurus/gurus_100202.html

Clovis8

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #445 on: February 05, 2010, 02:42:41 PM »
[It] won the BAFTA, Globe, some Grammys, every guild award, and a bunch of critic's prizes.  

Exactly, Avatar has won none of these (except GG) so I dont see why its such a favourite. It's not. If it is a favourite (which I dont believe) it is a very small one at best.

didn't say it was... though the oddsmakers seem to think so.

I was just using your good point to counter FLY, not you. :D

heh - though according to a lot of prognosticators THL is tops: http://moviecitynews.com/awards/2010/gurus/gurus_100202.html

nice find and pretty good evidence that the Odds makers are falling for the hype this year and making bad odds.

The thing people need to realize about odds is the initial line is set my some random guy (who may or may not know anything about film or the oscars) then the lines move based on betting. Since Avatar is loved by the masses like few other films then its odds get quickly moved in its favour because all the people who loved it, but know little about the Oscars, put their money on it.

Colleen

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #446 on: February 05, 2010, 02:44:21 PM »
Colleen, 1997 was weakish, but Good Will Hunting is an amazing film, and is totally better than Titanic.

I liked Good Will Hunting but didn't love it.  And my point wasn't so much the quality of the particular movies as the "Oscar Best Picture-quality" of them.  Most of the time a more intimate movie like GWH (or The Queen, or The Reader from more recent years) doesn't win.  

The Best Picture is usually some combination of 1) history, 2) spectacle and 3) inspirational plus the "x-factor" of voters feeling obligated toward a particular person who hasn't won before, hasn't won in a long time, or was "robbed" in hindsight in a more deserving year.  It's just the combo that the most voters seem to go for.

 There are exceptions but there is certainly a Best Picture "type" that tends to win more often--Ghandi, The Last Emperor, the lavish 60s musicals, Titanic and Slumdog Millionaire all had that combo.  I was actually very surprised that No Country For Old Men won because it didn't really have any of the three, and TWBB at least had the history on its side.

Sometimes I think the big sweeping ones win so often because so many people who vote in the Academy had some part in making them.

zarodinu

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #447 on: February 05, 2010, 02:52:02 PM »
The last Oscar broadcast was the lowest rated in History.  For that simple reason Avatar will win BP. 
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FLYmeatwad

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #448 on: February 05, 2010, 02:53:28 PM »
While 2007 was close, after 2006 it seemed pretty obvious that the award was going to go to the Coens regardless. All that Fargo love had been bubbling for quite some time, correct? Seems the Coens had a good deal more history on their side than PTA. Besides, isn't the Golden Globe winner, more times than not, especially lately, the same as the Oscar winner? If that's true it already is favored right there.

Plus, of course, there's always this...

The last Oscar broadcast was the lowest rated in History.  For that simple reason Avatar will win BP. 

Clovis8

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Re: 2009 Awards That Are Not Filmspots.
« Reply #449 on: February 05, 2010, 02:54:23 PM »
The last Oscar broadcast was the lowest rated in History.  For that simple reason Avatar will win BP. 

This theory never made any sense to me. You really think the average member of the DGA or SAG give a shit about the ratings of the Oscars?


 

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