127 Hours - Boyle's first after Slumdog and has tons of critical support. It's also an amazing film.
Black Swan - Another with tons of critical support and the first for Aronofsky after The Wrestler. Basically guaranteed a nomination, but unlikely to win due to dark and twisted subject matter.
The Fighter - This one is an underdog story based on a true story and with two apparently fantastic performances. it's also a late-in-the-season film that will be in people's minds when they fill out their nominee ballots.
Inception - I mean, come on. It's Inception. It did extremely well commercially and critically. It became part of the lexicon for the year. AND the whole 10 nominees thing was done after The Dark Knight got screwed out of a Best Picture nomination. The Academy owes Nolan.
The Kids Are All Right - For me this is the "little indie film obliged to be nominated". It was between this an Winter's Bone, but I feel like this one has more love and its a lighter story, which Academy voters are more likely to support. Plus, it's got great performances from most of the leads which always helps.
The King's Speech - It's pure "Oscar Bait" in terms of content, but apparently it's actually pretty damn amazing. It also won the Audience Choice Award at TIFF, which is basically a one-way ticket to a nomination lately.
The Social Network - What more needs to be said really? It's a great film that has been praised to death, which is all the more amazing considering so many people thought it was going to be awful. A great movie that's also a total surprise for its greatness is going to be recognized.
The Town - Ben Affleck directs a solid character-based heist film. Critics love it. Audiences love it. Everyone is behind it. It won't have a chance of winning, but a nomination it will get.
Toy Story 3 - Here's another case of a film that represents the screwing received at the 2009 Ceremony. Wall-E got screwed and so we have 10 nominees. An animated film from Pixar that is as great and beautiful and ambitious and made as much damn money as TS3 is going to be nominated, and this time I actually think it even has a marginal shot of actually winning. I say this because I don't think there is any clear front runner. King's Speech is up there and so is Social Network and so is 127 Hours. That's three films with veyr high chances, and I could definitely see Toy Story 3 bringing in the rear. It may also benefit from the general adoration it has, but also from the adoration for Pixar in the film industry. Toy Story 3 might get the Return of the King prize but for the entire studio, not just the Toy Story series.
True Grit - Haven't seen it. Sure it's all manner of awesome. Coen Brothers. Yay!
Now, if any of those 10 do not get a nomination then these are the films I could see taking their place:
How Do You Know - Academy loves James Brooks. They love him.
Never Let Me Go - Didn't get the right amount of support, but it's still a period-y British movie.
Shutter Island - Did well with audiences, and I think over time the critical community came around to it. Tons of great actors. Beautiful visuals. Scorsese. It doesn't have a high chance of a nomination, but the Academy members' memories are sometimes deeper than expected.
Somewhere - I highly doubt it, but you never know.
Winter's Bone - This one was the toss-up with The Kids Are All Right, so I say it might have that shot at the "little indie film obliged to be nominated."