Nice job with the Adapted Screenplay and Live Action Short picks. I won with Mank in Cinematography and McDormand in Actress, both at +500. Couldn’t pull the trigger on either of the upsets by The Father, even though neither was super shocking. Upset of the night was definitely Best Song (+2500).
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Yeah, that Best Song hit me out of nowhere. The odds on it were so high, I completely discounted it. Strangely, in the DraftKings free Oscar pool, 32% of people had that as their pick.
Ended up getting a little McDormand action pre-show at +325, but didn't go with Mank, that was a good prediction as well. I figured Mank would come away with just the first award. Was not entirely expecting Nomadland to win there, and had a slight suspicion about Mank, but avoided that one mostly because I remembered a lot of people specifically mentioning its cinematography being a negative of the film because of it being digitally shot but harkening back to old Hollywood. That's what I get for trusting in the analysis of Film Twitter.
Also didn't have the stones to lock in Hopkins, though that's the person I was rooting for. Mentioned in chat, I think, but felt like even knowing he had the BAFTA, it was the typical showy performance they reward, being about a topic that would appeal to the typical Oscar voter, he's both old and white, a Legendary Actor, and likely the last chance to get one for him, the +700 still felt like it would have been throwing money away because of everything a Chadwick win would represent. Also figured voters would think that way too. Wonder if the reason they did acting awards so quickly at the end after BP is because the Academy suspected the results and didn't want to deal with the immediate shit storm of two white people who already have won before beating out both Davis and Chadwick.